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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Thursday, May 11, 2023. Use Casey Wilson's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
We have a getaway day here, with only six games on the docket. I will do my best to provide the full props as usual, but I will not go overboard on a day like today. I recommend you all do the same. There are only three pitcher props on my card, and at the time of writing this, two haven't been released. I will update this article when the lines get released. That said, there is still money to be made, so let's pick some winners.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, May 11, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with my patented stolen base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kodai Senga OVER TBD base on balls (TBD Sportsbook)
Kodai Senga has yet to settle into the big leagues in his debut season. Senga has a 3.38 ERA, 25.5% K, and a 10.6% SwStrk. His ghost fork has been a nightmare for hitters. The one thing Senga still has yet to figure out is the command. He has a 15.6% BB and has walked four batters in his last four starts. The Reds walk at a top-ten clip in baseball. They also struggle against right-hand pitching with an 85 wRC+. Senga should have the opportunity to pitch deep into this game, which means more opportunities for walks. We will continue to attack it until the books set this line at 4.5 or Senga adjusts with his command. If we get this line at 2.5 or 3.5 with close to even money, I will hammer it as my favorite pitcher prop on the day.
Bailey Ober OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-156 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bailey Ober has been outstanding since his call-up at the end of April. In his three starts to start 2023, he has a 2-0 record with a 0.98 ERA, 4.60 SIERA, and an 8.8% BB. The difference in SIERA and ERA does mean some negative regression is coming, but when betting on strikeouts, I don't care if he gives up six runs; all I need is for him to strike out five batters or more. He has a 23.5% K and a 12.3% SwStr. Ober has struck out 6, 6, and 4 in his three starts this season, and two of those were against the Guardians and Nationals, who are bottom five in the league in K%.
He will now toe the rubber against the San Diego Padres, his best strikeout matchup. The Padres are fourth in baseball with a 25.4% K. We hit our over prop with K God Pablo Lopez and were going right back to the well here with Bailey Ober. DraftKings is getting stingy with K props and have Ober's line set at 5.5 with +145 juice. I like the over 5.5 as well, and this is a great way to ladder his prop by betting it on both sites; Thunder Dan special right there.
Nathan Eovaldi OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nathan Eovaldi gets the Oakland Athletics sweepstakes tonight as the A's travel to Globe Life to take on the Texas Rangers. Eovaldi is 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA, 3.40 SIERA, and a 4.0% BB. He has been exceptional in 2023. He has a 24.9% K with a 12.4% SwStrk. He has struck out five hitters in every start this year. He has struck out at least six in five of those seven starts and at least seven in three of them.
His opponent, the Oakland Athletics, has been hot as of late in Yankee Stadium, but they are still striking out at a high clip—the A's lead baseball with a 25.9% K against right-hand pitching. Eovaldi has one of the most extended leashes in baseball, as he has gone 107 and 113 pitches in his last two outings. More pitches mean more opportunities to pitch deeper into games and pile-up strikeouts. I love his chances of getting the over here against the Las Vegas, I mean Oakland Athletics.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Mitch Haniger OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings SportsBook)
I debated hard on who I wanted to write up here between Mitch Haniger and a few of his right-hand-hitting teammates. They will match up here against Tommy Henry. Henry has a 6.29 SIERA with a 5.17 ERA, 10.4% BB, and a minuscule 10.4% K. Since the start of last season; he has to allowed a .330 wOBA, .193 ISO and a 39.9% hard hit against right-hand batters.
During the same period, Haniger has a .348 wOBA, .173 ISO, and a 53.6% hard hit against left-hand pitching. I love his chances of driving a ball here or getting two hits. Slater left yesterday's game after pulling up with a hamstring injury. I doubt he plays here today. If Estrada leads off, I like his over hits, runs, and runs batted in.
Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 1.5 total bases (+105 DraftKings SportsBook)
Oh, how I love to pick on Mike Clevinger every time he toes the rubber. Clev has a 4.89 SIERA, 4.84 ERA, and a 47.2% FB this season. He gets smashed by lefties allowing a .380 wOBA, .281 ISO, 51.1% FB, and a 40.4% hard hit against the split. Pasquantino has a .382 wOBA, .265 ISO, and a 53.4% hard hit. Whenever I bet on Vinnie P, he treats me well, so I expect to keep the momentum rolling with him here today.
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