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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/9/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
I couldn’t be happier that yesterday is over with, as it was some rough stuff-ins out in the DFS streets. Dylan Cease came in at sub-10 % and gave up seven earned runs against the Royals. JP Sears came in sub 5% and gave up five earned runs. The beauty of baseball is there’s always tomorrow or today in this sense. I have two first-inning bets today, one being a YRFI and one being an NRFI, as well as my run line teaser.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Reds
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CIN +185
NYM: Max Scherzer | CIN: Luke Weaver
We start tonight with a matchup between two struggling pitchers in one of the best hitter's parks in the big leagues. Scherzer enters today's start with a 5.27 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.4 BB%, and a 37.9% hard hit. Scherzer returned from his suspension his last time out and saw his spin rates dip significantly as every pitch was 100+ RPMs lower. Who knows if it’s a coincidence or if he was cheating, but before all the cheating allegations, Scherzer was getting hit this season.
His opposition Luke Weaver has a 4.04 SIERA, 1.69 WHIP, 8.2% BB, and a 48.9% hard hit. Weaver has given up at least four earned runs in his first three starts this season. Between him and Scherzer, there will be a lot of traffic on the bases, and Great American Ball Park ceased 137 home runs last season, suitable for the most in baseball. With a lot of traffic on the bases in this park, runs are bound to happen.
Pick: 1st inning over 0.5 runs (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Angels
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: LAA -140
HOU: Framber Valdez | LAA: Shohei Ohtani
We have an outstanding pitching matchup on tap here in Anaheim as Framber Valdez squares off against Shohei Ohtani. Valdez enters play with a 3.01 SIERA, 1.16 WHIP, 24.9% K and a 65.0% GB. He has allowed two earned runs in the first inning in seven starts this year and has a 2.57 ERA. His counterpart Shohei Ohtani has a 3.16 SIERA, 0.87 WHIP, 38.6% K, and a 40.6% GB. He has allowed three earned runs in the first inning in seven starts this year and has a 3.86 ERA. They both have the stuff to get out of jams, whether with ground balls or strikeouts. I like the chances of two zeros being put on the scoreboard in the first.
Pick: 1st inning under 0.5 runs (-135) DraftKings Sportsbook
I have been making teasers with alternate run lines recently with my guy Thunder Dan, and we have been very successful. Here is what I'm going with today. The best way to do this is to select specific alternate lines compared to running a teaser. I hate pushing on these, so I will always pick a half-a-run compared to an entire run.
Pick: Athletics/Yankees O5.5 Rs + White Sox/Royals O5.5 Rs + Astros/Angels U10.5 Rs (-106) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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