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In the last two weeks I have typed up this article, we crowned a new world No. 1, with Jon Rahm winning his third PGA Tour event in five starts. Scottie Scheffler will have to win another event soon to claim that spot back, and now Rory McIlroy has dropped to world No. 3. Things are getting very busy at the top of the world rankings.
We are going to ask a few questions that will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.
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#1. Dogs or Dimes?
Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?
The odds of the last three winners were rather long shots at 140, 70, and 30.
A healthy combination of favorites and long shots have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.
Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win:
#2. History or Mystery?
Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?
Course history correlations are one of the highest on tour at PGA National (Champion).
These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained:
These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained:
#3. Birdies or Bogeys?
What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?
The last five winners of this event shot -10, -12, -6, -9, and -8 with the top five of those tournaments averaging -6.6, which my model considers hard difficulty.
The best strokes gained average on hard courses:
The best strokes gained average on medium courses, as we don't have a massive sample size of hard courses on tour, in this field are typically majors:
#4. Weak or Peak?
Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?
The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's field is 103.1. Last week's total OWGR was 241.51.
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#5. AM or PM?
What is the weather usually like at this event?
The wind is going to be an absolute factor this week and there will most potentially be a wave advantage for PM/AM waves before the cut. It is the weather, so this may not even happen. Pay attention to it closer to tee-off, though.
#6. Distance or Direction?
Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?
This course has water EVERYWHERE, so keeping your ball in play is critical this week. Although accuracy is less important here than at a typical tour stop, we will lean on good drives gained this week as well as strokes gained off the tee on par 70/71 courses shorter than 7,200 yards.
The best Strokes Gained off the tee in the field:
The best good drives gained in the field:
#7. Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?
64% of approach shots will come from 125-200.
These are the golfers that rate out the best when taking the above proximity buckets and prorating them:
#8. Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?
We are going to focus on golfers that have impressive sand proximities and a general around-the-green touch.
These are the golfers who excel around the green:
These are the golfers who excel out the sand:
#9. Bermuda or Bent?
Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?
The best putters from inside 15 feet on all surfaces:
The best putters inside 15 feet on Bermuda over the last 50:
#10. Model or Maniac
Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?
Below are the top 10 golfers in my model, along with their power ranking if we added 20% extra to each category in the column header:
These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little:
Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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