December 28, 2022

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos didn't start his tenure in the City of Brotherly Love the way he wanted. Over 141 games, he hit .263 with just 13 homers, his lowest total since 2014, drove in 62 and scored 56 runs. The only bright spot was Castellanos' seven stolen bases, a career-high. The 30-year-old's quality of contact was ugly and far from his career norms, as he posted a 22nd-percentile average exit velocity and 39th-percentile barrel rate. Castellanos hit the ball on the ground 42.9% of the time, his highest rate as a big-leaguer, and he again rarely pulled fly balls (15.2%). His poor pitch selection hit a new level in 2022 and likely played a significant role in his production. Castellanos' swing rate has increased each of the past two seasons and reached a 57% mark this year. The veteran made minimal contact when he did swing (32.2% whiff rate) and chased almost 40% of the time, finishing in the 6th percentile. Castellanos didn't strike out a crazy amount at 23.3%, but that's too high when he's not hitting the ball with force. A return to his old self will be hard if he can't be more patient at the plate, and there's no evidence that'll happen. Castellanos plays at one of the best hitter-friendly parks, and a natural regression in his quality of contact means he'll probably smack at least 20 home runs. However, his .257 batting average, four steals, and 146 RBI plus runs projected by Steamer aren't enough to complement his unspectacular power at his ADP of 126. Instead of drafting Castellanos, wait and take Anthony Santander (135 ADP) or Taylor Ward (137 ADP).--Spencer Seguin