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Why is scoring down in the NFL? Some have said it's due to better defense, but when you watch the games, it appears it's because of coaching. Jacksonville had a 4th-and-1 against the Giants on Sunday up 17-13 in the fourth quarter and Doug Pederson decides to go for it. Why not take the three points and go up seven? But it gets worse. The Dolphins, up 16-10 on their opening drive of the second half against the Steelers, went for it on 4th-and-3. That field goal puts you up two scores against an offense that looked awful. Luckily for them, it didn't come back to haunt them but analytics have taken over and it's mind-boggling.
Week 7 saw the Patriots and Bucs go down knocking more entrants out of survivor pools. Week 8 has two double-digit favorites, but every other game has spreads within five points. There's only one matchup between teams with winning records and that is the Giants-Seahawks.
You may be out of your survivor pool, may be in a second chance contest, could be looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 8
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Eagles -10.5 vs. Steelers, Bills -10.5 vs. Packers, Cowboys -9.5 vs. Bears.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Chiefs, Chargers
The best bets are at the bottom of the article.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 8
Falcons -4.5 vs. Panthers
If you haven't used Atlanta yet, now could be the only time to. The 3-4 Falcons have been one of the surprise teams this season. Marcus Mariota has led a pretty solid offense ranking 15th in yards per play while scoring 23.3 points per game, 12th in the league. And those numbers come with Kyle Pitts and Drake L0ndon combining for 10 catches and 77 yards in the last two games combined. Just imagine if they were more involved.
Carolina looked dead and out but a huge upset against Tampa has them at 2-5 and just one game behind the division lead. The Panthers got their win Sunday, but they have no offensive weapons and their defense will only be able to hold up so long.
Falcons 34 - Panthers 20
Eagles -10.5 vs. Steelers
Philadelphia is becoming a near-surefire target every week in survivor, that is if you haven't chosen them already. The Eagles are off a bye and face a horrid Steelers team. Their defense is good, but how long can you hold off the Eagles' attack when your offense is dead last in yards per play at 4.8 and 31st in scoring? Kenny Pickett has so many weapons at his disposal, but the offense is clearly not gelling.
The Eagles may get off to a slow start off the bye and Pittsburgh's defense is a prideful one but Philly will put this away in the second half.
Eagles 30 - Steelers 13
Cowboys -9.5 vs. Bears
Was I wrong about the Patriots-Bears game Monday night? I thought Bill Belichick's defense would torment Justin Fields but Fields had the upper hand. Dallas' defense is a different animal; tied for second in opponent yards per play, first in sacks with four per game, and in their last three games, fifth in opponent rushing yards per game at 97.
The Cowboys' offense was lackadaisical in the first half against the Lions, but that was in Dak Prescott's first game back. In the second half, though, they had two long touchdown drives. Expect that second-half performance for a full game against a team on a short week.
Cowboys 31 - Bears 13
Colts -3 vs. Commanders
This is a hold-your-nose pick with Sam Ehlinger getting the start for Matt Ryan. But the Colts are desperate and Ehlinger won't turn it over as much as Ryan. Ryan leads the league in interceptions and has taken the second-most sacks. Ehlinger is young, mobile, and will be in a position to manage the game.
Washington is a good team for Ehlinger to face. This is a below-average team that averages 17.9 points per game, 25th in the league.
Colts 27 - Washington 17
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 8
Bills -10.5 vs. Packers
Buffalo should win but everyone is counting Aaron Rodgers out. The Packers have looked terrible, but you'd think on Sunday night they'll somehow keep it close.
Bills 27 - Packers 26
Bengals -3.5 at Browns
Cincinnati looks like they're back with a seemingly unstoppable offense; Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon. Cleveland will need to rely on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to keep the Bengals offense off the field. Cincy has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in their last three. The Browns have the third-best rushing attack. I like the Browns outright on Monday night.
Browns 24 - Bengals 20
I usually have more avoids, but I'd really put all the rest in this category. There are three great teams: the Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles. The rest can all beat each other.
NFL Best Bets for Week 8
- Browns +3.5 vs. Bengals - Cleveland's rushing attack can control this game.
- Patriots -1.5 at Jets - I hate to go against my Jets, but Bill Belichick will have his team fixed after a Monday Night Football embarrassment. New York has also lost running back Breece Hall and offensive guard Alijah Vera-Tucker.
- Cowboys -7 vs. Bears - Dallas' defense will have a field day against Fields.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 0-3
- 2022 season: 12-8-1
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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