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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the ZOZO Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the ZOZO Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Narashino Country Club
7,041 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bentgrass
Narashino Country Club is about an hour's drive east of Tokyo, Japan, and it features what I would call a claustrophobic design. The venue emphasizes a substantial tree-lined nature that requires golfers to move the ball in multiple directions because of the doglegs throughout, which means accuracy will take the top spot over distance for the week. That answer was probably naturally inferred by everyone reading this article when looking at the 7,100-yard layout of the land, but I do want to note that length isn't irrelevant if you try to think a little outside of the box when making your model. I didn't take such a strong stance in that direction since accuracy will provide more premium chances to score with your second shot, but maybe you can consider a flatter distribution and add GIR percentage to the mix if you are trying to get different.
Unfortunately, research starts to go out the window from there because of the lack of trackable data on the course. There are a unique five par-threes that the field will get daily, with each measuring under 200 yards. The three shorter ones rank inside the top six most accessible scoring chances for the event, whereas the two between 183-191 fall inside the nine most challenging. The 10 par-fours provide an eclectic dispersion of opportunities, and the distance from these holes will quickly show what we should expect from a scoring output. All six chances that place over 425 yards are in the top seven in difficulty, and we see the problems mold on the five between 486-505.
Usually, a shorter track like this would start to present ease in the par-fives to account for the smaller layout, but the three are fascinating when we consider the vast difference in expectation. I am not trying to recite 'Goldilocks and The Three Bears' when providing this answer, but one is easy, one is just right and the 608-yard behemoth yields, on average, a 21.9 percent birdie or better rate - one of the lowest percentages you will see all season at any stop.
On a final note, it is worth mentioning that Japan has a different construction with two greens per hole. They do this to use one for the summer and the other for the winter. I don't think that the answer holds a ton of credence since I don't know how we statistically quantify "paying attention," but maybe some of the bogey avoidance numbers are worth a deeper dive since we do want golfers that can stay in the game when the going gets a little more challenging.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Narashino | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 53% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 64% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.26 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
SG: Total Short Par 70s With Average/Difficult Fairways (15%)
Average/Difficult Scoring At Short Courses (12.5%)
Weighted Par-Three (10%)
Weighted Par-Four (20%)
Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%)
Bogey Avoidance + Scrambling + Sand Save + Around The Green (17.5%)
Weighted OTT + APP (15%)
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Xander Schauffele ($10,800) - I will admit that this is not my favorite tournament from a roster construction standpoint. For starters, the consistent pricing up top makes our lives challenging since the high-end options are theoretically worth the price of admission. But perhaps more importantly than that, the no-cut nature and limited field size will start to heighten the stars, all while diminishing some of the cheaper golfers on the slate. It doesn't mean we won't/shouldn't bargain-bin hunt, but the quality pricing has allowed only two golfers (Hayden Buckley/Dylan Frittelli) to be ranked inside the top 40 of my model from under $7,000, which is where this awkward dynamic comes into play for everyone since the most expensive players are worth the price tag, but how many do we want to take a shot on, even in a no-cut event, when the bottom-end falls off quickly?
Looking at this on a Monday morning from a leverage perspective, and I do want to note that things can change swiftly before Wednesday night, Xander Schauffele is shaping up to be the best pivot option on the board in the 10k section. The American has been a stellar no-cut golfer throughout his career, making it surprising the ownership hasn't jumped up higher at this point, and he is one of only 17 players that has played this event every time possible when held at Narashino Country Club. The knowledge is there, the talent is evident, and I would be surprised if Schauffele doesn't inevitably shift over into the "play" pile over the next few days.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) -First and second-place finishes for Hideki Matsuyama at Narashino means that only Tiger Woods has beaten him at the venue over his two tries, so why isn't the Japanese sensation an automatic pencil-in for me on home turf?
I don't have a problem with anyone that wants to use him - evidenced by his ranking of fifth in my model from an overall rank perspective, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I had some concerns with the current form when paying this price and ownership. The salary is set in stone, so we aren't going to get around that, but unless the popularity takes a dip to provide some leverage, I will likely be on the outside looking in this week.
Collin Morikawa ($10,200) - I like Collin Morikawa from a GPP perspective if the ownership can drop a little, but I assume that won't be the case with most of the early public money backing him in the outright market. That is generally a good indicator of where the popularity is heading for DFS builds, but I will keep him on the fence for now, even if he is leaning toward being a fade candidate because of his current volatile form and high public interest
Sungjae Im ($10,000) - I see it as we can get away with playing half these golfers at $10,000 or above. When we go higher, the builds will become too similar to everyone else, and if we go less, we probably are forfeiting too much win equity up top.
I am going to trust my model after it ranked Sungjae Im to be the man to beat this week, and while the price tag did open up a can of worms since $10,000 flat is way too cheap, I am fine eating some chalk with the five top-15 finishes he has provided in a row. I think there are multiple reasons this play makes sense at almost any ownership total that is reasonable, and it will take a high percentage for me to shift out of Im as an option.
As of Monday:
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Tom Kim ($9,700) - I don't know what else there is to say about Tom Kim that hasn't already been mentioned. The public loves him, the metrics always grade out well and the upside is there after multiple victories to start his career before turning 21.
The answer remains to be seen how Kim fares weekly on more challenging courses, but this is a spot where the high popularity does marginally concern me in a no-cut contest. When a player is not grading out to achieve either a positive trajectory for upside or a contrarian outlook for ownership in my model, you can sometimes take a shot against the safer golfers at the top of the board and hope they don't beat you with a victory. I am not sure if that is what I am considering doing at this point or not, but I am weighing all options.
Viktor Hovland ($9,500) - I don't hate the upside potential, but I would need sub-five percent to play Viktor Hovland at this salary cost.
Cameron Young ($9,300) - I mentioned in the course breakdown section how distance is a unique angle to look into at the ZOZO Championship, and the reason for that stems from the long par-fours and fives that will require some semblance of length to avoid big numbers.
There is no golfer in the field with more distance off the tee than Cameron Young (other than Cameron Champ), but the main difference between the two is I do believe Young's irons and short game can be good enough to win here if the driver works the way it is capable of for the week.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) - There are some red flags regarding weighted proximity and OTT + APP in my model, but other than Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood is the only other golfer $9,000+ to grade positive in all areas of my sheet.
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100) - If the numbers shift over the next few days, I can jump off, but a 2.4% version of Tyrrell Hatton is enticing for multiple reasons. We can get more into that in the Wednesday DraftKings article if things still remain steady.
Corey Conners ($9,000) - Ownership will be the big decider.
As of Monday:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Cam Davis ($8,500), Scott Stallings ($8,200) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000) are the three that intrigue me most, but I am not rushing to this section.
As of Monday:
We will talk more about this group on Wednesday.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-35 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-65 in one of the two iterations and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.
You can use my model, but the two highest graders are Hayden Buckley and Dylan Frittelli. John Huh and Adam Long take nice jumps when running it purely for upside.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Sungjae Im ($10,000)
$9,000 - Cameron Young ($9,300) - Best upside for the price.
$8,000 - TBD
$7,000 - Aaron Rai ($7,500) - I also really like Rickie Fowler...
$6,000 - TBD
List of Golfers To Grade In The Top-30 Of All Scoring Sections:
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