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Weeks 2 and 3 were killers, but I don't know too many handicappers who have had much success with NFL bets yet this season. Let's hope things start to normalize here a bit in week 4.
Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week four of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Against the Spread: 5-10
- O/U: 2-5
- Overall: 7-15, Ouch!
NFL Betting Picks: Spreads
Here’s where I am at so far this week. All spread and total bets are one unit, each. I typically bet one unit on sides, half units on parlays, and half-unit or a quarter-unit on props.
MIA +3.5 (-110 DK)
Tonight’s game should be interesting. A lot has been made of the Miami situation as they had to leave Florida early with the evacuation for the hurricane and probably haven’t practiced much. But this is a short week for both teams and I don’t see it as some massive advantage for Cincy. I have Miami as the best value underdog on the board and they’re not 3-0 for no good reason or “getting lucky".” I just think they are good and that Cincy hasn’t shown us much reason to think they’re that good this year yet.
NYG -3 (-115 DK)
I was hoping this line would move from -3.5 to -3 because I really didn’t want to back the offensively-challenged Giants to cover more than a field goal. The Bears are incredibly offensively challenged and I have a hard time imagining them going into New York and scoring enough points to hold off Barkley and friends. The Giants win and cover and move to 3-1!
LAR ML (+100 DK)
I grabbed this bet at slightly higher odds earlier in the week just in case it moved, but it’s still double your money if the Rams win on the road in San Francisco. The Rams are the better team in my opinion, even though they haven’t really played all that well yet this year and the Niners are very ordinary on offense (but at least functional) with Jimmy G.
NFL Betting Picks: Totals
IND-TEN UNDER 42.5 (-110 DK)
We are on a bunch of UNDERS this week, and I hoping for the trend of lower-scoring games to continue. This game feels like a slugfest as both teams really want to run the ball and control the clock and neither team wants to put the ball in their QB’s hands to win it. The model likes it all the way down to 37 points and I think it will be a close, hard-fought win for one of these teams. The Colts’ defense is making a believer of me after shutting down the Chiefs last week and Tennessee looked much better in somewhat limiting the Raiders’ high-powered attack, too.
PHI-JAX UNDER 46.5 (-110 DK)
This should be a really fun game, but I think it trends under, too. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the OVER this year, but still -3 points overall in +/- against their totals. Philly is 1-2 on OVERS and has gone under in each of the last two thanks to some really strong defensive performances against Washington and Minnesota.
KC-TB UNDER 45.5 (-110 DK)
This game a few years ago would have had us all hitting the over and probably would have had a 50+ point total. But times have changed and Tampa has had one of the best defenses in the league this year while struggling to score and having a ton of injuries on offense. Meanwhile, since they’re Week 1 bludgeoning of Arizona, KC has slowed down quite a bit on offense, while being much improved defensively so far this year. Who knows, maybe the GOAT and Mahomes end up slinging it all over the place, but my gut and the data both agree on a under here in a big way.
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So let’s establish something here. I am going to post some money line parlays each week and at least one teaser. These bets carry more risk than straight bets, even if they seem like slam dunks! I try not to get too carried away and limit them to 3-4 games at the most. Play along if you like, or build your own. Most of these bets are half-units if you are wondering how to scale them to your other bets.
ML PARLAY: BUF/GB/PHI = (+177 DK)
Not a big value here at only +177, but I think the Packers win pretty easily, Philly puts an end to the Jacksonville uprising, and the Bills have Lamar and the Ravens’ number.
6.5-point Underdog TEASER: HOU/DEN/MIA = (+150 DK)
This moves us to Hou +12, Den +9, and Mia +10.
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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