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Thank you for joining me today for my official DraftKings selections for this week's event. If you haven't had a chance to already, here is my Monday DraftKings article - a piece where I provided in-depth insight into my early takeaways for how the venue will play from a statistical perspective. While most of that information remains relevant, especially when discussing how I handicapped the event in my model, consider this article your final stop for all things DFS on Wednesday afternoon.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sanderson Farms Championship
Here is an updated look at my model! I will be using this brand-new link until Wednesday night, and you will notice round one DraftKings pricing has been included, as well as new ownership totals and drift percentages.
DraftKings Players ($10,000+)
Sam Burns ($10,700) – I mentioned during my Monday article how Sam Burns would likely need to drift out to 25%+ in MME contests for me to want to look elsewhere, which hasn't come to fruition with his current projection of 20.7%. Sure, that is higher than you would care to see during an event, but it is essential to remember that not all chalk is bad, and Burns is the cream of the crop for a reason.
The American leads this field in my recalculation for all 18 holes, Bermuda putting + par-five scoring, overall birdie or better percentage, weighted proximity, weighted par-three/par-four averages and weighted strokes gained total when I redistributed the data to mimic the Country Club of Jackson. The fact that he is just five or six percentage points higher than his counterparts in this range (plus a few hundred dollars more expensive) means most gamers are still overthinking the situation. Playing Burns will require me to get different elsewhere, but I have a ton of paths where my model loves some of the under-the-radar choices.
J.T. Poston ($10,200) – I realize the projections have remained steady all week, but I still have difficulty imagining J.T. Poston is a top-10 owned golfer on the slate. There is too much intrigue around the likes of Sam Burns and Russell Henley for the sixth-place mark my model is anticipating we see on Thursday, which is one of the reasons I am ignoring the data and trusting my gut on his popularity. I mean, seriously, I haven't seen anyone other than myself talk about him all week, so where are these 15%+ totals coming from for the Sanderson Farms?
Poston does enter the contest as the fourth-highest ranked golfer on my model when looking solely at current form over the past 10 events, and his second-place grade from an overall perspective only heightens my appeal of what he may be able to accomplish. Driving distance backers or good iron proximity observers will likely rate the American as their fourth choice in this section, but I am more worried about how someone performs on par-fives and with their Bermuda putting - a combination that places Poston third in this field. Sam Burns and Vincent Whaley are the only two golfers to rank above him.
Other Thoughts - There will be no change at the top of the board from my Monday article, as Sahith Theegala ($10,400) and Russell Henley ($10,100) become victims of the pricing and ownership game. We can't play every option over $10,000, especially with the popularity coming into play, and the duo will begrudgingly miss out on making my player pool. On the surface, I don't have any issues with either, but Henley's ownership/volatility and Theegala's lower win equity totals had me go in another direction.
$9,000 Range
Taylor Montgomery ($9,600) - The more I run my data out for the week, the more I like Taylor Montgomery. The ownership is on par with everyone else in this range, so it is not as if we have to worry about an outlandish popularity total that we need to overcome to get ourselves to double the field, and while I would be lying if I said I didn't have trepidation since I am trusting a model with limited data on a golfer, there are some spots where the upside ends up being higher than the early perception. Cameron Young would be an excellent example of that in 2021-2022, and I don't think it is an unimaginable claim to say Montgomery is the early favorite to be this year's "Rookie of the Year." I don't mind getting out in front of the market, especially since the price tag will cause gamers concerns about trusting the restricted data, and I would consider anything sub-15 percent to be an ownership gift.
Scott Stallings ($9,500) - This is one of those spots where I tried everything I could to leave Scott Stallings out of my player pool, but I couldn't formulate any real narrative behind why he should miss out on the fun. Yes, the ownership is slightly higher than I would like to see. And yes, the upside doesn't work in an ideal sense when we can pivot to options like Taylor Montgomery or Davis Riley for similar popularity totals and better win equity marks, but the combination of form and course history stood firm in my model.
I still believe Stallings is likely a better cash-game play than anything else, but I will defensively use him at around a 20% clip and trust the overall complexion of data that points towards him being what I would consider a nice target from a statistical sense.
Davis Riley ($9,000) - The best way to use Davis Riley is probably as an outright ticket after this surge in popularity over the last 24-48 hours, but my model didn't have enough negative marks from an ownership or price tag perspective to warrant me getting off of this play.
If the American starts to push one or two percent higher and does reach what I would consider that dreaded 16%+ mark this week, we do begin to run into some trouble when comparing the effects of popularity versus safety versus upside, but I will continue to keep a close eye on those totals over the next 24 hours and likely will keep him in my player pool because of the pristine ball-striking grades. I'd hate to remove Riley when the statistical fit for the track is sound, and the upside is 100% heightened at this track.
Other Thoughts: Denny McCarthy ($9,900) works better in cash. Keegan Bradley ($9,400) has some GPP appeal, although I decided to avoid that route. And Emiliano Grillo ($9,200) had too much ownership on a golfer that barely was favored over Mark Hubbard at Circa Sportsbook.
$8,000 Range
Adam Hadwin ($8,700) - I'll be on both of the lowest-owned golfers at $8,000 or above, but let's start with Adam Hadwin, who currently projects out to be around 3.4% in MME contests.
Hadwin's upside has always been a question mark for those that decide to roster him in large-field contests, but my model seems to believe the statistical makeup needed for the Country Club of Jackson might be able to spring one of those surprise top-10 finishes out of him. Hadwin ranks fifth when I recalculated the data to mimic the track this week from a strokes gained total standpoint, and his combination of all 18 holes placed him ninth in the field. The leverage you can create here is 80% of the play, but the upside metrics are also on-point to warrant playing a golfer that might be marginally overpriced.
Seamus Power ($8,400) - Seamus Power is the ultimate boom-or-bust target at the Sanderson Farms for a few reasons. For starters, two missed cuts and 65th place finish out of 67 golfers doesn't exactly scream buy-now! But the 4.8% ownership projection mark and high-end statistical metrics show us a golfer that could be ready to explode during the restart of his new season.
Power ranks first in my model on both easy-scoring courses and reweighed par-four scoring for this week's venue, and when we talk about the four par-fives and singular short par-four being the most critical holes for golfers to find success at if they want to win this event, nobody in this field ranks higher than the Irishman.
Wyndham Clark ($8,000) - I will trust the total driving and putting numbers that love Wyndham Clark over the complete picture of my model that states he is a low-end golfer that should make the weekend.
That safety does come into play for me slightly since 6.5% and $8,000 is enticing for a player that does rank to be one of the better driving + putting threats in the field, but it pretty much comes down to trusting some of the sharper markets in this situation for someone that has pushed into the 30/1 range at influential books inside of the space.
Other Thoughts: I think I have moved to the understanding that if Thomas Detry ($8,800) beats me, I will live with the result. That's an abrupt change for me from my Monday article, as I called Detry my favorite $8,000 golfer on the board, but I'd rather play someone like Dean Burmester for $1200 cheaper and 10% less ownership than commit to a 15% golfer with limited data.
$7,000 Range
Dean Burmester ($7,600) - When looking at the $7,000 range, the only golfer that carries better leverage than Dean Burmester while still grading as a favorable equity option in my model would be Mackenzie Hughes ($7,000), but I think that shows the upside and contrarian nature of placing the South African into your builds.
Burmester's ball-striking acumen ranks him inside the top 15 of the field, and his par-five scoring metrics should fit nicely with his increased expected output on Bermuda greens.
Alex Smalley ($7,500) - Like Davis Riley, Alex Smalley has started to catch some steam in the space over the last 24 hours, but the projections in my model are flat enough across the board when looking for leverage that I will keep him in my player pool.
The par-five scoring has been all over the map because of an inconsistent around the green game, but the long irons rank second in this field, providing us a potential opportunity for Smalley to turn his scoring around on those holes if we see his 45-place improvement come to fruition when looking at his Bermuda splits versus all grass types.
Byeong Hun An ($7,300) - I am going to trust what we saw at the Fortinet Championship. While the data in my model is skewed, there was once a time Byeong Hun An was a Presidents Cup member. Should he be 13th overall after one quality start? Maybe not. But at $7,400 and sub-10 percent ownership, I will bet on the potential.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,100) - Sharp markets love Patrick Rodgers, and as I always say, if I am using Wyndham Clark, I will be playing Rodgers along with him in specific builds.
Mackenzie Hughes ($7,000) -As I mentioned above, Mackenzie Hughes is the best $7k leverage choice on the board, according to my model. Hughes' weighted strokes gained total output is 15th overall - 24 spots better than at a random course, and the putter places him as one of the safer options in the field for when this turns into a putting contest.
Additional Options To Consider: I like Stephan Jaeger ($7,200) and Davis Thompson ($7,200), but my model HATES their ownership totals. I prefer Thompson between the two since his leverage stays a little more flat, but I generally dislike this low $7k chalk. Some of the names above carry popularity of their own, but each is easier to commit to in my builds for one reason or another. If I am going for the 10%+ chalk route, I prefer doing it with Mark Hubbard ($7,400), although Smalley takes the cake over all.
$6,000 Range (Top Options To Consider)
Rory Sabbatini ($6,900) - Donald Ross specialist.
Carl Yuan ($6,900) - Unknown entity that sharp markets love. I have seen him as low as 55/1 to win this event.
Joel Dahmen ($6,800) - One percent dart throw that I will be 4-5x the field on for the week.
Vincent Whaley ($6,600) - Second in my model when combining par-five scoring and Bermuda putting
Sam Ryder ($6,600) - Volatile but has the par-five scoring to compete. I considered Ryder as a FRL leader and may still go there before the week is done.
Options I am Prioritizing:
You can use my model (or the other recommendations in this article) to continue to fill out your player pools.
Options I am Considering At Lower Exposure:
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