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Analysis of five fantasy football running backs to target late. Are these RBs undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper 2022 drafts?
Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft high-upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to take risks on a variety of different players, including prospects, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even skilled players with potential playing time concerns.
It's essential to have at least a handful of sleeper targets at each position heading into your fantasy football drafts, no matter the format. Here are some late-round running backs for you to consider drafting this season.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific NFL players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 300+ of our 2022 player outlooks, along with many other premium articles and tools available exclusively in our 2021 Draft Kit.
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Devin Singletary, Bills, Fantasy Football Outlook
It doesn't make much sense to have doubts about Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary, even with the ongoing talk about the team's backfield this offseason. Yes, Zack Moss hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been even remotely close to Singletary's production levels.
That's why the 24-year-old racked up almost twice the PPR points Moss produced last year, and the former also bested his backfield partner on a per-game basis putting up 11.3 FPPG to Moss' 8.0 score.
Singletary did it all last year in 17 games: only 188 carries were enough for him to reach 870 yards on the ground to go with 7 TDs over the 717 snaps he played. That rushing yards figure was the best among RBs with 188 or fewer carries, and only Singletary, Leonard Fournette, James Robinson, and Boston Scott scored 7+ touchdowns on such volume.
Singletary's ability to break tackles after finishing the year with 40 such events was more impressive, though. He, of course, was the only rusher with more than 30 broken tackles on fewer than 200 carries and the fifth-best at total broken tackles without any statistical restriction. Talk about efficiency.
Singletary's 4.7 carries per broken tackle ranked second, only topped by Javonte William's 4.6 mark, and the Bills rusher broke a tackle on 21%+ of his total carries, the third-best mark among rushers with 100+ rushing attempts.
He is a staple in Buffalo's backfield, and that shouldn't change going forward, with the only problem for his upside being the presence of QB Josh Allen and his rushing prowess. The Bills also drafted running back James Cook in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Cook should see most of his work on passing downs as he was considered one of the best pass-catching backs in the draft this year. Additionally, Singletary should have a vital role in Buffalo's high-power offense and is as solid a draft pick as they come at the position
-- Antonio Losada
Tony Pollard, Cowboys, Fantasy Football Outlook
Make no mistake about it, Tony Pollard is Ezekiel Elliott's backup. That's been clear the past three seasons. The Cowboys continue to be hamstrung by Zeke's six-year, $90M contract extension signed back in 2019 and are essentially forced to give him most of the touches.
However, 2021 was a little different than 2019 and 2020. Pollard averaged 11.8 total opportunities (rush attempts + targets) last season compared to just seven in 2019 and 8.8 in 2020.
Believe it or not, he became even more efficient with the increased workload, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (YPC) and 7.3 yards per target (YPT) compared to 4.8 YPC and 5.0 YPT the previous two seasons combined. Pollard's increase in opportunities and production has come at the cost of Elliott's workload.
Last season, Zeke averaged a career-low of 13.9 rush attempts. On those 13.9 rush attempts, he averaged just 4.2 YPC. He also averaged a career-low 4.4 YPT on 3.8 targets per game. Now add in the fact that Zeke averaged just 0.64 yards per route run (YPRR) last season, which was third-worst among 58 running backs with at least 25 targets. Meanwhile, Pollard averaged 1.9 YPRR, ranking third amongst all running backs.
While one of the reasons Elliott remains on the field is his underlying contract, the other reason is his ability in pass protection. However, last season, he received a pass-block grade of just 40.2 compared to a pass block grade of 50.3 for Pollard (per PFF).
Pollard finished the 2021 season as the RB34 on a per-game basis, and that was with scoring just two touchdowns. He should be considered an RB3 with upside as an RB1 if Elliott is forced to miss any time in 2022
-- Adam Koffler
Dameon Pierce, Texans, Fantasy Football Outlook
Dameon Pierce landed in the perfect spot, a team with a wide-open backfield situation. Heading into the 2022 season, the Texans re-signed 32-year-old Rex Burkhead and career backup Royce Freeman on one-year deals.
The team also brought Marlon Mack, who is just two years removed from an Achilles tear, on a one-year deal. At Florida, Dameon Pierce was used sparingly, earning just 100 carries and 19 receptions in his final season.
Pierce never saw a huge workload, but this allowed him to stay fresh and healthy, only missing one game in his four seasons with an apparent head injury. Nonetheless, whenever he was on the field in 2021, Dameon Pierce was outstanding, averaging 5.7 YPC and a touchdown on an absurd 13% of his carries.
Other standout rookie RB touchdown rates include Breece Hall and Rachaad White, each with 8%, and Kenneth Walker with 7%. Furthermore, while Dameon Pierce was a Day 3 selection, he was just two picks away from being a third-round pick. Pierce is an explosive running back with no tread on his tires and a nose for the end zone which is now joining a backfield with numerous questions.
While I still expect Mack and Burkhead to split the starting reps to begin the season, there is an immediate opportunity for Pierce to win the starting role in Houston.
Once he inevitably wows the coaching staff with a big play that their other RBs are incapable of making due to their injury history and age, it becomes Pierce's job to lose. At his current ADP of RB52, Dameon Pierce holds immense value in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles, Fantasy Football Outlook
Kenneth Gainwell was a trending late round sleeper going into drafts last year. After being selected in the fifth round of the 2021 NFL draft, he appeared to be in position to operate as the Eagles' No. 2 back behind Miles Sanders.
Unfortunately for Gainwell, Boston Scott wound up playing a bigger factor than many of us had speculated and the team also eventually brought in veteran Jordan Howard to stabilize the backfield. As a result, Gainwell managed just 544 total yards from scrimmage on the year.
However, he did bolster his stats by scoring a total of six touchdowns as the Eagles' rushing game completely dominated in the red zone. As long as Sanders is healthy, Gainwell offers very little upside from a fantasy perspective.
We could see him establish himself as the clear handcuff to Sanders this year, but at this point for fantasy purposes, he's little more than a late round handcuff option in only the deepest of leagues
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons, Fantasy Football Outlook
Tyler Allgeier was a workhorse running back prospect coming out of BYU, scoring a ridiculous 23 TDs, second-most of all RBs in 2021. He reached 100 rushing yards in 7-of-13 games in his final season.
Now, the former linebacker enters a backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams. Considering each of these running backs are 30+ years old, there is a clear path towards immediate relevance in the Falcons offense for Allgeier.
Following his 3 TD game last season, Cordarrelle Patterson out-carried Mike Davis 10.5/gm to 7.2/gm. Heading into next season, I don't expect the 31-year-old career kickoff specialist to improve as a runner between the tackles, and I don't think it is a "hot take" to suggest that he will likely return to normalcy with fewer than 10 carries per game.
I'm also expecting Jeremy McNichols to play sparingly in the run game, primarily being used as a pass-catcher whenever Patterson is unavailable. This means Tyler Allgeier is likely just competing for early-down work with Damien Williams, who's had fewer rushing yards in his entire 7-year NFL career than Allgeier did in just his final season at BYU.
All this being said, Allgeier could quickly become the team's go-to option on early-down and goal-line running plays. Come to the end of the season; I expect this backfield to have been split between Patterson and Allgeier, with each receiving ~8-12 carries/game based on the game script.
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