Malik Willis NFL Rookie Profile - Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

May 27, 2022

Kyle Lindemann's fantasy football rookie analysis for Tennessee Titans quarterback Malik Willis. Is this NFL rookie QB a 2022 fantasy football draft sleeper?

Few prospects were as polarizing as Malik Willis during the pre-draft process. With a cannon for an arm and blazing speed, Willis is one of the most exciting dual-threat quarterback prospects to arrive in the NFL since Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.  Some scouts had knocked him for losing out on a positional battle to Bo Nix at Auburn, which eventually required him to transfer to Liberty. While Willis flashed during his two years as a starter there, many were concerned that he didn't operate in a complex enough offense and wasn't required to put the ball all over the field where he will have to succeed in the NFL.

A fifth-year senior, Willis slid until the back of the 3rd Round on the weekend of the NFL Draft after many had him pegged to go within the first 32 picks. It was unfortunately a prime example of the media hyping up a player with a good storyline whose chances of going high on draft night didn't end up being an accurate depiction of how actual front offices felt about the player. When the dust had settled, only one quarterback went in the first round of the 2022 draft, that being Kenny Pickett to the Pittsburgh Steelers at 20th overall.

While Willis's draft stock took a hit, he ended up in a decent situation with the Tennessee Titans. Many had viewed Malik as a prospect who wasn't yet ready to play and now he can sit and learn behind Ryan Tannehill, who has guided the Titans to several winning seasons but hasn't yet been able to get them over the hump in the playoffs. That is why some feel that the move from management to draft Willis was made. Eventually, he will have to prove himself enough to the coaching staff and the front office that they can trust him enough to be the guy.

Player Profile

Team: Tennessee Titans
College: Liberty
Hometown: Atlanta, GA
Height/Weight: 6-0 1/2. 219 lbs
Measurables: 31 3/4" arms. 9 1/2" hands
Drafted: Round 3 - Pick 22

College Production

Passing

Rushing

It's easy to see from looking at Malik's numbers how he was able to put the entire Liberty team on his back during his senior season and guided them towards an 8-5 record and a victory over Eastern Michigan in the Lending Tree Bowl. It is also worth noting that while Willis didn't play in a big conference against elite competition in college, he also didn't have a strong supporting cast around him either.

2022 Fantasy Outlook

Looking at the stats from Malik's senior season at Liberty, he would have accounted for around 400 fantasy points in 4-point passing TD leagues. Since sacks count as rushing yards lost in college, Willis would have put up 355 more rushing yards over 13 games, which is good for a 30.8 per game average! Notably, he was sacked a total of 52 times. Just looking at those numbers it's easy to see why people are excited for him for fantasy purposes should he get to play.

With rushing quarterbacks becoming more common in the NFL they have started to become a relative sort of cheat code for fantasy. Jalen Hurts is the perfect example of this. In leagues with 4-point passing TDs, Hurts put up 171 points through the air in 15 games, but had 138.4 on the ground, which had him finish among the top quarterbacks for 2021. To put it in perspective, Hurts started every game with a minimum floor of 9.2 points because of his rushing upside. A non-rushing quarterback would have had to throw 2 passing TDs or pass for 225+ yards just to get on the same level with that kind of guaranteed floor. While it's not fair to compare Hurts to Willis in these stages of their careers, we can look at Hurts' fantasy production as a sort of relative baseline for what we might expect from Willis being that he is such a dynamic runner on the ground and even likely has a better arm than Hurts.

In redraft leagues, he does not currently have any value because he is not expected to see the field and most redraft leagues have smaller rosters compared to dynasty leagues. It doesn't make sense to tie up a roster spot for a player who isn't a starter on the current depth chart. If you choose to draft him, do so at your own risk, but likely he is someone who could be picked up with FAAB should his name get called to start.

2022 Rookie Drafts & Dynasty Outlook

In rookie drafts, Willis is typically going as high as the 1.05 and as low as the 2.07 in Superflex rookie drafts. In 1QB leagues, he is typically going in Round 2. While 1.05 may seem high for Willis, in Superflex leagues demand for quarterbacks is always going to drive up their values when your league's rookie draft rolls around. Being that Willis has tremendous fantasy upside because of his rushing ability it is understandable why certain teams would draft him that high if there is a glaring need at quarterback. I am not comfortable with taking him until Round 2 because of all the other players on the board.

Malik is valued as the WR26 on Keep Trade Cut in half PPR Superflex leagues and is listed as the QB28 on Fantasy Pros. In dynasty startups, he is typically going at about Round 10. If you are in a league with a taxi squad, he is the perfect candidate because he isn't expected to play right away, but as far as stashing away a player with potential downsides, his upside is exactly what you are looking for.

Conclusion

As analysts, our jobs are to present you with as much relevant information as possible so that you can best make your determination about a player. With Willis, it is easy to fall in love with his fantasy upside and real-life potential in the NFL. It's also important to realize there is a chance that he never sees any significant playing time either. For fantasy purposes, he is a true boom-or-bust draft pick with his ability to crush it for your lineups on Sundays but does so with the understanding that he has hurdles to overcome to see the field.

While Ryan Tannehill has his flaws as a quarterback, it's easy to forget just how good a prospect has to be to even dream of being as good as him and lasting in the long for a decade-plus. But should Willis get to play, he steps into about as good of a situation as anyone could ask for.

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