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Everyone likes bold predictions. Whether that’s because they like glancing at unexpected, but technically possible outcomes or because they like getting worked up over the absurdity of the bold predictions, I have no idea. If I were a betting man, which I am, I lean towards the latter. With that mindset, I fully embrace the reactions to these seven bold predictions for the 2022 fantasy football season.
We’ll be doing our bold predictions here as if it were a fantasy football lineup. That means you’ll get one bold quarterback prediction, two bold running back predictions, three wide receivers, and one tight end. Some of these will be bolder than others, but they all have the possibility of becoming reality in 2022. Most likely a higher possibility than you’ve otherwise considered. If not, then maybe I didn’t go bold enough.
Bold predictions are fun and all, but really what you should be taking out of these types of articles are the possible range of outcomes for certain players. Are any of these likely on their surface? Probably not. Well, maybe the D’Andre Swift one, but the point is they’re possible and that should impact our opinion. A player’s possible range of outcomes should have a significant impact on how we value players, so let’s get started.
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Aaron Rodgers Finishes Outside of the Top-15 in PPG Among QBs
Is the back-to-back MVP not finishing in the top-15? The guy that has thrown 85 TDs and just nine interceptions the past two years? That guy? Yup, that’s the guy.
Seems crazy, right? Well, it shouldn’t. In fact, just three years ago during Matt LaFleur’s first year as head coach of the Green Bay Packers – back when Davante Adams, you know, the very best WR in the league, was still a Packer – Rodgers finished as the QB14 in PPG.
Seems like a long-time ago, doesn’t it? Two MVPs will do that, but this offseason, the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders. It’s left the Packers with arguably the worst group of pass-catchers in the NFL.
The Packers operated as one of the slowest offenses in the NFL last year. They were 32nd in plays per second and 31st in plays per second in neutral settings. It isn't just that, however. Green Bay has ranked 16th, 24th, and 16th in pass attempts since LaFleur became the head coach. And consider, those numbers were with Davante Adams.
It's quite possible the Packers' offense is even more run-centric in 2022 than they were last year. If that's true, we're talking about an offense that will once again be one of the slowest in the league and at the bottom 10 in pass attempts.
That hasn't been a death sentence for him the past two seasons, but that's because he's had 85 touchdowns. During those two seasons, he had a 9.1% and 7.0% touchdown rate, but again, that was with Adams who happens to be the best red zone weapon in the NFL. Now that there's every reason to believe that Rodgers significantly declines in 2022, will it be enough for him to drop outside of the top-15?
We have Josh Allen (1), Justin Herbert (2), Kyler Murray (3), Lamar Jackson (4), Patrick Mahomes (5), Jalen Hurts (6), Tom Brady (7), Joe Burrow (8), Russell Wilson (9), Deshaun Watson (10 – remember, we're talking PPG), Trey Lance (11), Dak Prescott (12), and Matthew Stafford (13).
None of those players having a better PPG average than Rodgers should be a stretch. Now, can we find two more? Let's start with Kirk Cousins. He was just 1.81 PPG behind Rodgers last season.
Where Rodgers lost Adams and is dealing with a skeleton crew at receiver, Cousins will be moving into a more up-tempo, pass-centric offense with Kevin O'Connell at the helm and he has Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, Irv Smith Jr., and Dalvin Cook.
We just need one more. Derek Carr and Justin Fields are the obvious candidates. Carr could lead the league in yards and see a big uptick in touchdowns with Adams. Fields could rush for 750+ yards and five touchdowns and with those rushing stats, it wouldn't take much to get into the top-15.
D’Andre Swift Finishes as "The" RB1 With an Austin Ekeler-like TD Surge
I'm not even sure if this one can be considered bold at this point. Consider...
D’Andre Swift was on pace for 1,560 total yards, 84 receptions, 107 targets, & 9 total TD’s through 10 games last year (before getting injured).
He was averaging 18.5 PPG (would’ve been RB4 on the year).
There’s absolutely no reason for him not to have a RD1 redraft ADP.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) May 27, 2022
As you can see above, he was already the RB4 before getting hurt in Week 11. It's not a big leap to go from RB4 to RB1. He had just six touchdowns in the first 10 games of the season with the Lions ranking 25th in points scored.
However, entering 2022, the Lions are in Dan Campbell's second season and Jared Goff is in his second season in Detroit. It's reasonable to expect an uptick in scoring due to some basic familiarity with the offense.
That's typical for teams and quarterbacks entering their second season under a previously new head coach. That's not the only reason, though.
Taylor Decker, starting left tackle, missed seven games, and Frank Ragnow, starting Pro Bowl center, missed 13 games. This means they should get much better offensive line play in 2022. In fact, if this unit is healthy, it could very well be a top-five unit in the NFL.
T.J. Hockenson, starting tight end, also missed five games. Amon-Ra St. Brown, a third-round rookie, started off slow but closed like an absolute freight train. He'll be better in his second year.
Not only that, but they drafted Jameson Williams and signed D.J. Chark. The receivers are significantly better in 2022. Don't be surprised if the Lions' offense makes a step forward this year closer to the league average.
This will increase scoring opportunities for Swift. Expecting an Austin Ekeler touchdowns surge, who had 20 touchdowns in 2021, isn't realistic considering the differences between the Chargers and Lions' offenses, but what about 15?
He was already pacing at 10 touchdowns last year considering all the offensive line injuries and lackluster receiving weapons. With an improved offense, Swift shouldn't have a problem scoring more touchdowns in 2022.
There are Two Teams Who Finish with Two RBs in the Top-24 Among RBs
Since the last prediction with D'Andre Swift was somewhat tame on the "boldness" scale, I decided to get a bit bolder with this one. How bold?
People will often say, "No way this team can produce two top-12 wide receivers!"
So here's the data. Here's how frequently teams produced multiple players in the top-12/24/36 in half PPR formats since 2011 at WR/RB. This is by points per game, minimum 8 games played per player. pic.twitter.com/Qtvv7YdmGY
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) July 23, 2022
Over the last 11 years, there have been only seven teams to have two running backs finish in the top-24. 32 teams multiplied by 11 seasons = 352 opportunities for this to occur – it's happened seven times or 1.9%.
The odds are not in our favor with this one, but since the last one was a bit weak, I figured we'd get a little spicy with this one. So what two teams are going to accomplish the feat? The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys.
There's really no question about Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Jones finishing in the top-24. They finished with a 13.7 (Elliott) and 13.5 (Jones) PPG in half-PPR scoring, which was good for RB14 and RB15, respectively. Of course, a lot of this depends on health, but that's not something that's predictable.
Last year, RB24 finished with an 11.0 PPG average. A.J. Dillon averaged 10.1 PPG and Tony Pollard was at 9.5 PPG. This means we need both of them to score roughly 0.9–1.5 more PPG.
Over the course of 17-games, that's 15.3–25.5 points. What does that look like? Well, 15.3 points would be 93 scrimmage yards and one more touchdown. That should be easy peasy for Dillon.
What does an extra 25.5 points look like? 145 scrimmage yards, 10 receptions, and one more touchdown. That seems fairly doable for Pollard too. Outside of the fact that neither of them had that far to go to finish in the top-24 last year, what else makes this a possibility?
The Packers lost Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who accounted for 224 targets, 149 receptions, 1,983 yards, and 14 touchdowns. With these losses, it's reasonable the Packers' offense becomes reliant on the running game in 2022.
With the lackluster group of receivers, it's also more targets are funneled to the running backs. While this will primarily benefit Jones, it's more than possible Dillon sees, at the very least, a similar utilization in the passing game in 2022.
If Dillon becomes the primary goal line back, another possibility considering his 247-pound frame, he has an easy double-digit touchdown upside in Green Bay. If that were come to pass, Dillon should have no problem sneaking into the top-24.
The Cowboys also lost Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson Jr. who combined for 165 targets, 113 receptions, 1,467 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Similar to the Packers, it's possible the Dallas offense could depend more heavily on their running backs.
There's been plenty of talk about Pollard being used more heavily in the passing game, even taking snaps lining up in the slot. If Pollard picks up 17 extra targets this season – just one more per game – based on his career averages, this would result in 13 more receptions and 101 more yards.
DJ Moore Scores 7+ TDs and Becomes a Top-12 WR
People are underestimating Baker Mayfield. We forget that he played the majority of 2021 with a torn shoulder labrum that frequently became dislocated.
Not only that, but Kareem Hunt missed nine games, Jarvis Landry missed four, and Odell Beckham Jr. only played six games before being released. His leading receiver was Donovan Peoples-Jones with 597 yards. Some of that was his fault to be sure, but he was dealing with a bad and banged-up group of pass-catchers and a nasty shoulder injury.
It's fairly reasonable to have expected some struggles all things considered. We forget, however, that he threw 26 touchdowns in 2020 and just eight interceptions.
We forget he set the then record for most touchdowns by a rookie in a single season with 27 despite only starting 13 games. This isn't to say that Mayfield is a stud or some kind of elite quarterback, he's not, but he's better than he was in 2021.
| Panthers, 2021 | TD Rate | Team Pass Attempts | Expected TDs | Panthers, 2020 | TD Rate | Team Pass Attempts | Expected TDs | Panthers, 2019 | TD Rate | Team Pass Attempts | Expected TDs |
| Sam Darnold | 2.20% | 599 | 13 | Teddy Bridgewater | 3.00% | 550 | 16.5 | Kyle Allen | 3.5 | 633 | 22 |
| Baker Mayfield, 2021 | 4.10% | 599 | 25 | Baker Mayfield, 2020 | 5.30% | 550 | 29 | Baker Mayfield, 2019 | 4.10% | 633 | 26 |
| Baker Mayfield, Career | 4.80% | 599 | 29 | Baker Mayfield, Career | 4.80% | 550 | 26 | Baker Mayfield, Career | 4.80% | 633 | 30 |
The above chart shows the pass attempts for the Panthers each of the last three seasons where DJ Moore had over 1,100 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
It also includes the primary quarterback for the Panthers, their TD rate, and their expected TDs had they played the full season. It also includes Baker Mayfield's TD rate for each respective season and his career average.
Take note, in 2021, despite Mayfield playing the worst ball of his career, he still would've thrown for 12 more touchdowns than Sam Darnold. His career average would've been 16 (!!!) more touchdowns.
Actually, if you look closely, you'll find that in each of the past two seasons if you use Mayfield's TD rate for each respective year or his career average, he'd have added an extra at least 10 more touchdowns to the Carolina passing game.
It's not only that, however. Mayfield's career 7.3 YPA vs. Darnold's 2021 6.2 YPA is a difference of 659 yards on their 599 attempts last year. Think about that. Baker Mayfield's career averages would have added 16 touchdowns and 659 yards to the Carolina passing game last year.
The trio of Darnold, Bridgewater, and Allen has resulted in Moore having TD rates of 2.9% (2019), 3.3% (2020), and 2.4% (2021). These are garbage numbers.
For a receiver of Moore's stature, we'd at least expect something in the 4–6% range and Mayfield's much better career TD rate could finally unlock this. He had 163 targets last year and there's no reason not to expect Moore to command a high target share again.
If you're worried about Christian McCaffrey's return – don't be – the Panthers running backs had 135 targets last year, which is plenty for CMC to soak up.
If we give Moore a slight decrease down to 150 and then work off of his career averages, he'd finish with 90 receptions and 1,296 receiving yards. Now, the fun starts.
If we give Moore a 4% TD rate, he'd have six touchdowns. 5% would be 7.5 touchdowns. 6% is nine touchdowns. Even with just six touchdowns, he'd finish with 210.6 half-PPR points. That's more points than Mike Williams had last year and he finished at WR10. Don't sleep on DJ Moore.
Jaylen Waddle Will Outscore Fellow Dolphins WR, Tyreek Hill
Over the past four seasons, Tyreek Hill has been one of the very best fantasy receivers in the league. He finished as the WR3 (2018), WR9 (2019), WR2 (2020), and WR6 (2021) in half-PPR PPG over the last four seasons.
He's been one of the very best in the business since 2018. Of course, during that time he played in Kansas City and was catching his passes from Patrick Mahomes.
As good as Hill has been and make no mistake, he's been very good, the environment in Kansas City and the quarterback play meshed beautifully with Hill's skillset and helped him to dominate the fantasy landscape at receiver.
Everything is changing this season. Hill demanded a trade after not being able to come to contract terms with the Chiefs and he found himself traded to the Miami Dolphins where he'll now be catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa.
While many will point out that Tua ranked first in deep ball completion percentage, they'll also ignore the small sample size.
Among qualifying passers, Tagovailoa ranked 31st in air yards per attempt, according to PlayerProfiler. He also ranked 32nd in air yards per game and 32nd in deep ball attempts per game with just 2.15.
He was first in deep ball completion, but he accomplished this on just 28 attempts. He didn't push the ball downfield at all. There's an argument to be made that he was negatively impacted in this regard by his play-makers and offensive line.
That argument would hold a bit more water if passers such as Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jared Goff didn't rank ahead of him.
All of them had issues with their offensive line or play-makers or both and they still all had more deep ball attempts. Tagovailoa's refusal to throw the ball deep could nerf Tyreek Hill's greatest asset – his speed and it could be significant.
Here's the other thing, Jaylen Waddle is really, really good. How good? Well, he set an NFL rookie record for most receptions in a season with 104. He racked up 142 targets, which is a number Hill didn't reach until his sixth year. It isn't just his overall target number either.
-Tyreek Hill’s best target share in 6 yrs is 25.1%. Jaylen Waddle’s was 24.8% as a rookie
-Hill’s most catches ever is 111. Waddle had 104 as a rookie
-Waddle’s over/under for receiving yards is 925. Hill’s is 999-It’s close to 50/50 on who has the most fantasy points in 2022.
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) August 2, 2022
Pay attention to that last part where Vegas has currently the over/under lines at 999.5 for Hill and 925.5 for Waddle in total receiving yards for the 2022 season.
While Hill does have the advantage, they aren't separated by much, which is something you should pay attention to because Vegas isn't in the habit of losing money.
They view this receiver duo as being very close this season and there's good reason for that. Waddle was magnificent as a rookie, Hill is entering his 28-year-old season, and he'll be playing with a brand new quarterback. On the flip side, Waddle and Tagovailoa already have good chemistry and are comfortable with one another.
Jaylen Waddle
Recovering from a broken ankle
- 104 receptions (rookie record)
- 25% target share (higher than Chase)Fully healthy offseason to gain back more explosiveness
I see Waddle & Tyreek Hill as 50-50 who scores more fantasy pts
Yet Waddle goes 15 picks later by ADP
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) July 9, 2022
Hill should not be completely dismissed in fantasy, certainly not with his track record, but the circumstances surrounding the new season and Waddle's historic rookie season leave it up in the air as to who will finish as Tua's favorite target this season.
If Hill continues to work as a deep threat and Tagovailoa is unwilling to air it out, it could result in even more room for Waddle to operate underneath. In any PPR scoring league, Waddle has a better chance than you might think to outscore his new teammate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Finishes as a Top-20 WR
Everyone is so focused on JuJu Smith-Schuster's last three seasons, but let's add a little context to these numbers. In 2019, JuJu missed four games and finished with a disappointing stat line of just 40 receptions, 552 yards, and three touchdowns.
However, to be fair, the Steelers had 14 games where Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges started at QB. The team finished 26th in pass attempts, 31st in yards, and 28th in touchdowns. Rudolph and Hodges combined to be one of the worst starting QBs in the league that season.
In 2020, Smith-Schuster racked up an impressive 128 targets and finished with almost 100 receptions (97). He had only 831 yards, but that wasn't all his fault either. Ben Roethlisberger ranked 29th in yards per attempt with a pathetically low 6.3 average. Check this out...
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has NEVER not been a top-24 in any season of his career where he's played 13 or more games. Not once.
- Instead of catching passes from lame-duck Big Ben, he has Patrick Mahomes. 📈
- Should have 120 targets & you can get him as your WR3.
- Easy buy.— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) June 7, 2022
Even in 2020, when he had just 831 yards, he still finished as the WR18. Excluding his rookie season and 2021 where he only played five games, he has had target shares of 24.5% (2018), 18.3% (2019), and 19.6% (2020).
Since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have passed the ball 583 (2018), 576 (2019), 630 (2020), and 675 (2021) times. Remember from 2018–2020 there were only 16 games.
Using per game averages, on the low end, the Chiefs have paced at 612 attempts over 17-games. On the high end, it's at 675. That should be our range of outcomes for the Chiefs' number of passes.
Using the lowest number of 612 attempts with Smith-Schuster's lowest target share of 18.3%, we should be expecting around 112 targets as his floor. On the high side of both projections, we could expect as many as 165 targets as his ceiling.
The average between these two is 138 targets. Even if we project a more reasonable 20% target share for Smith-Schuster, which is more in line for his 2019 and 2020 seasons, WR2 upside is still present.
Over the past two years, the Chiefs have averaged 39.4 and 39.7 pass attempts per game. 39 passes per game equals 663 attempts over 17-games. A 20% target share on that team volume would be 133 targets.
With a reasonable outcome of 125–135 targets, there's no reason that Smith-Schuster cannot finish inside the top-20. These aren't 125–135 targets from Big Ben, these are targets from Patrick Mahomes.
2019 and 2020 were the least efficient seasons of his career. In 2019, he had a 13.1 YPA and just a 60.0% catch percentage. In 2020, he had a 75.8% catch percentage and just an 8.6 YPA.
On 130 targets, even using the least efficient seasons of his career, we're talking about 78 receptions and 1,022 yards based on his 2019 averages and 99 receptions and 848 yards based on his 2020 averages.
Either way, if you give him six touchdowns, we're very much in the WR2 range and that is with the least efficient averages of his career. Enter Patrick Mahomes. Don't sleep on JuJu Smith-Schuster having a bounceback season.
David Njoku Finishes as a Top-10 TE
The Browns have lost Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., and Austin Hooper from 2021. They've since traded for Amari Cooper, but who the No. 2 target is in this offense is completely unknown. The options appear to be Donovan Peoples-Jones, a former sixth-round pick.
The next time he has 600 receiving yards will be the first time in his NFL and collegiate career. He never amassed 600 yards in a season at Michigan either. David Bell is the other option, but he's a third-round rookie who is currently on the PUP list. The third option is David Njoku.
Last season, Njoku had a 1.72-yard-per-route-run average, which ranked 12th among tight ends. He also averaged nine yards per target, which was the fifth best. He averaged 13.2 yards per reception, which was good for fourth among tight ends.
His 2.03 fantasy points per target ranked sixth. Needless to say, when he got opportunities last season, he produced. That's not the first time Njoku has popped. He largely missed the 2020 and 2019 seasons, but in 2018, he had the best season of his career.
He earned 89 targets and had a 16.9% target share, both of which ranked seventh among tight ends. He had the eighth-most air yards, receptions, and receiving yards.
He also had the seventh-most unrealized air yards and yards after the catch. The lack of quality pass-catchers behind Amari Cooper could lead to a big target share for Njoku in 2022 without even considering this...
Under Kevin Stefanski, #Browns TEs have combined for 27.8% & 27.3% of the team’s targets in his first two seasons as head coach
We have David Njoku listed as a Sleeper in the UDK 👀
(Via @NFL)
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 25, 2022
The Browns have prioritized their tight ends in the passing game, which could also mean a big role for Njoku. He's always been an explosive athlete and if he's able to get 100+ targets, which is in the range of outcomes for him, he's guaranteed a spot in the top-10.
Njoku's current ADP is far too low right because he's one of the few tight ends who presents legitimate and tangible upside.
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