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Andy's mid-to-late round fantasy baseball sleepers and values from the NL West. His upside hitters and pitchers include Nick Pivetta, Michael Conforto, more.
Hello, RotoBallers! In this piece, we will analyze five players (one from each team) from the National League West who are value picks at their current ADP in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts.
All ADP is provided by NFBC from drafts from February through early March. We will look at players who are currently being drafted in Rounds 14 through 20 (picks are approximately No. 150-250).
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Michael Conforto, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 265
After a busy offseason that included signing a two-time Cy Young winner in Blake Snell and overseas sensation Roki Sasaki, the one-year, $17 million contract the team signed Michael Conforto to has gotten lost in the news. However, Conforto has a path to being the everyday left fielder in one of the top lineups in the sport.
Last season, Conforto held a .237/.309/.450 slash line with 20 home runs with the San Francisco Giants. He generated a strong .350 xwOBA (85th percentile) and a .479 xSLG (89th percentile). He also placed in the 77th and 80th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, respectively.
However, a look at his splits suggests moving to Dodger Stadium could set him up for a big 2025.
When batting in San Francisco, Conforto posted a modest .216/.292/.341 line. However, when on the road, Conforto held an impressive .252/.323/.530 slash line. According to Statcast, Oracle Park in San Francisco held the third-lowest home run total for left-handed bats, while Dodger Stadium holds the sixth-highest home run total over the past three seasons.
Given his impressive metrics and now moving to a favorable home park, Conforto is an excellent target in five-outfielder leagues.
Nick Pivetta, SP, San Diego Padres
ADP: 208
Nick Pivetta remained a free agent throughout most of the offseason before signing a four-year, $55 million contract with San Diego in mid-February. Last season, he logged 145 2/3 innings with the Boston Red Sox and held a 4.14 ERA with a strong 1.13 WHIP. He tallied strikeouts at a 28.9 percent rate, which placed him in the 88th percentile.
Pivetta also showed strong command of his pitches as he served up free passes at a solid 6.1 percent rate (80th percentile). He also generated a promising 3.51 xERA and a .221 xBA, suggesting he should see positive regression in 2025.
In addition to his underlying metrics, a move to San Diego should also significantly boost his fantasy value, but his ADP has yet to catch up. According to Statcast, Fenway Park in Boston held the second-highest Park Factor over the past three seasons, which was second only to Coors Field. However, Petco Park in San Diego had the fourth lowest during this stretch, meaning it is a very favorable setting for pitchers.
Pivetta saw his fastball generate an improved .307 xwOBA in 2024 compared to the .329 xwOBA it generated in 2023.
Pivetta also leaned heavier on his sweeper in 2024. This pitch generated an impressive .231 xwOBA. His sweeper became his second-most used pitch (25.7 percent usage) last summer, which was a significant increase as he deployed it just 5.4 percent of the time in 2023.
Fantasy managers looking to boost their rotation past pick No. 200 should be sure to take a shot on Pivetta, as he should be in a great position to outperform his price.
Justin Martinez, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 232
Justin Martinez emerged as the Diamondbacks' go-to closer down the stretch in 2024 and should be well-positioned to open in this role in 2025. During the final two months of the season, Martinez logged 26 1/3 innings to the tune of a 3.08 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. During this span, he tallied eight saves with 40 punchouts. He only blew one save during this span.
In the first half of the season, he held a stellar 1.32 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP across 41 innings.
Across the entire campaign, Martinez tallied punchouts at an elite 29.5 percent rate and whiffs at a 34.5 percent rate. In addition to generating a high amount of whiffs and punchouts, Martinez also generates ground balls at a 60.3 percent rate (97th percentile). These metrics suggest that Martinez could be set up for a massive breakout season in 2025.
Martinez relied on two pitches to generate most of his strikeouts. His second-most used pitch, his split-finger, generated whiffs at an elite 54.0 percent rate. This pitch also generated a stellar .133 xwOBA and a 36.5 percent put-away rate.
His third-most used pitch, his slider, generated a similar 45.1 percent rate with a 25.0 percent put-away rate.
However, his primary pitch, his sinker, generated a modest .362 xwOBA with an 18.7 percent put-away rate. If Martinez can take this pitch to the next level, he could emerge as one of the baseball's top relief pitchers.
While A.J. Puk could occasionally steal save opportunities, given Martinez's elite metrics and strikeout upside, he is a great target at his ADP if you decide to fade the top relievers. He could very well have 20+ save upside pitching on a competing Diamondbacks team.
Jung Hoo Lee, OF, San Francisco Giants
ADP: 235
Jung Hoo Lee saw his MLB debut season cut short after just 37 contests due to a season-ending shoulder injury in 2024. However, the 26-year-old has been playing in spring contests and should be a full-go for the 2025 campaign after a brief back scare (clean MRI).
During his brief taste of the major leagues, Lee posted a .262/.310/.331 slash line with two home runs and two stolen bases. However, his underlying metrics suggest he should see some positive regression in 2025.
Lee generated a .278 xBA, which was well above the average mark. He also showed a strong eye at the plate as he struck out at a near-perfect 8.2 percent rate and whiffed at a 9.6 percent rate, which gives him a substantial boost in points leagues.
Given his strong contact skills, Lee should provide fantasy managers with an elite batting average late in drafts and a high total of counting stats batting at the top of the San Francisco lineup.
Jung Hoo Lee’s rookie year was cut short, but his elite contact skills shined:
.278 xBA, 9.6% whiff, 8.2% K rate. Now SF’s everyday CF and leadoff man
ATC projects a .282 AVG
—steal at his 239 ADP. @TheReal_NFC 🚀
If you need an AVG boost, target Lee#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/CvjeZkNq90— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 3, 2025
However, Lee is currently dealing with a back injury and could be in danger of missing Opening Day. His MRI revealed no structural damage, suggesting his absence will likely be short. As a result, fantasy managers should still target later in their drafts and could even carry a nice discount, given this minor injury.
Michael Toglia, 1B, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 179.5
I initially was going to discuss Thairo Estrada as the representative from the Rockies, but he, unfortunately, suffered a wrist fracture that will keep him sidelined for at least the next 4-8 weeks. Instead, I will pivot to another sleeper in Colorado, Michael Toglia.
Toglia appeared in a career-high 116 contests last season (after appearing in just 76 over his first two seasons). During this stint, Toglia held a .218/.311/.456 slash line with 14 doubles and 25 home runs.
He flashed elite power upside as he placed in the 98th percentile in barrel rate (17.3 percent) and 94th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.2 percent). Toglia also generated a strong .503 xSLG and .358 xwOBA, which placed him in the 93rd and 90th percentile, respectively.
He also drew walks at a solid 11.8 percent rate and generated a .244 xBA, which suggests that he should see some significant positive regression in the 2025 campaign.
However, his one major flaw was his strikeout rate. The 26-year-old held a hefty 32.1 percent strikeout rate with a 34.9 percent whiff, both of which are well below the average marks.
While this profile does not bode well for points leagues, he could be an intriguing source of power in category formats.
Surprisingly, playing him the hitter's paradise of Coors Field, Toglia flashed more power upside when on the road. At home, Toglia held a .423 SLG with eight home runs compared to the .488 SLG and 17 long balls he hit on the road.
Given his elite power metrics that suggest he should see positive regression, he is worth drafting as a corner infielder, especially if you decide to fade power hitters early. If his positive regression kicks in, especially at home, Toglia could carry 25+ HR upside playing half of his games in Colorado.
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