Fantasy Football League-Losing Picks: 5 Early-Round Draft Avoids for 2025

July 20, 2025

Frank Ammirante's players to avoid in the first five rounds of 2025 fantasy football leagues. His early-round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, and more.

With the 2025 NFL season around the corner, it's a great time to prep for fantasy football drafts. We'll take a closer look at fantasy football average draft position (ADP) to uncover players to avoid in the first five rounds of redraft formats. Remember, dodging landmines is just as important as landing on value when building a fantasy team.

In this article, we'll examine Underdog ADP as of July 16th, as it is one of the most active platforms, where hundreds of drafts occur at any given moment.

So, without further ado, read on to learn why I view Nico Collins, Brock Bowers, Breece Hall, Jameson Williams, and Courtland Sutton as five busts in the first five rounds for 2025 fantasy football.

Nico Collins - WR, Houston Texans

Underdog ADP: 10.3 (WR6)

Collins is a prototypical alpha WR1 with great size and downfield ability. This is an elite target earner tied to a talented third-year quarterback in C.J. Stroud. As the unquestioned top target with Christian Kirk returning from a torn ACL and rookie Jayden Higgins as the other perimeter wideout, why would I be lower on Collins?

Nico Collins has developed to the point where he's dominant at all phases of playing the wide receiver position, and that's what makes him a slam-dunk Top 5 player at the position. pic.twitter.com/4a9Lj7rapI

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 26, 2025

There's no doubt that Collins is one of the best talents at wide receiver in the NFL. But that hasn't yet translated into elite fantasy production over the course of a full season. Just take a look at his fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring:

• 2024: 14.7 PPG (WR7/FLEX19)
• 2023: 14.7 PPG (WR6/FLEX13)

In other words, you're taking the 19th-ranked scorer from last year at 10th overall right now. The opportunity cost is too high for me, especially with stud running backs like De'Von Achane and Derrick Henry available at this price.

We should also note that Collins has consistently missed time due to injury throughout his career, including 12 games or fewer played in two of the last three seasons. Add in Stroud's shoulder concerns, and you can see why I'm avoiding Collins in the first round.

Brock Bowers - TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Underdog ADP: 19.1 (TE1)

Bowers is coming off one of the best tight end seasons in NFL history as a rookie, living up to the hype with 112 catches for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns. Now with a quarterback upgrade in Geno Smith and a boost in scheme with Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, why am I out on Bowers?

Brock Bowers is not your average TE pic.twitter.com/g69kl2Jf0e

— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) July 14, 2025

Once again, the answer comes down to opportunity cost. With a mid-second-round price tag, you're taking Bowers over the likes of Jonathan Taylor, who ranked as the sixth-highest scorer in FLEX half-PPR points per game last season. Compare that to Bowers, who ranked 39th in FLEX scoring.

There's simply not enough of a positional advantage to justify taking Bowers at this price, especially since you can get George Kittle (who outscored Bowers last year) in the third or fourth round.

When you think back to other tight ends taken in the second round or higher -- Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Jimmy Graham -- each of them was tied to high-volume passing games with elite quarterbacks. Bowers doesn't have that in Vegas, where they're likely to emphasize the run with stud rookie Ashton Jeanty.

As with Collins, this isn't a knock on the player, but the price.

Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets

Underdog ADP: 34.5 (RB12)

Hall was a cemented top-5 pick in fantasy football drafts last season. After averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game (RB18/FLEX31), Hall is now routinely available in the third round this year. Despite the discount, I'm looking elsewhere at this price.

I don't have a massive problem with Breece Hall's price, but if this is true, Braelon Allen could be a real steal.https://t.co/ORIB5iw2u1 pic.twitter.com/7FuVTosCnx

— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 24, 2025

For one, reports indicate that the new coaching staff, led by former Lions' defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, prefers a committee approach in this backfield. That could mean more touches for Braelon Allen, who can thrive in the red zone, since he's a power back and strong interior runner.

Then we have to consider that Hall's receiving upside is capped with Justin Fields under center. This is a running quarterback who requires a run-heavy offense with limited passing volume in order to thrive. Even though Fields likes to check it down, the low pass attempts will make it difficult for Hall to eclipse 70 targets once again.

Looking at the players around Hall, you can simply go with Mike Evans or Kittle at this cost and target a running back like Kenneth Walker later in the draft.

Jameson Williams - WR, Detroit Lions

Underdog ADP: 46.6 (WR25)

Williams had a breakout season last year, catching 58-of-91 targets for 1,001 yards and seven touchdowns, which worked out to WR20 in fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring.

#Lions HC Dan Campbell on Jameson Williams:

“The sky’s the limit for him… We expect him to have a huge season. We really do, man. He’s gonna be one of these guys that we’re gonna lean on this year and is really gonna be big for us.”

Campbell has a 90% reliability rating on… pic.twitter.com/EVGzT3aJm8

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 30, 2025

Despite the glowing reports from head coach Dan Campbell, Williams is a fade for me due to his expensive cost. You can take more proven players like DeVonta Smith at this ADP.

Additionally, we have to note that the Lions got into more shootouts than usual last year due to an injury-depleted defense. Now healthy, it's unlikely that we'll see those crazy results like the game against the Bills down the stretch.

It's also worth acknowledging that stud tight end Sam LaPorta played injured for the first half of the season. Now fully healthy, that's another player who can take away targets from Williams.

Simply put, investing a fourth-round pick in a boom-or-bust deep threat like Williams feels too rich for me. If I wanted this archetype, I would go with a player in a more pass-heavy offense, like George Pickens with the Cowboys.

Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos

Underdog ADP: 48.7 (WR27)

Sutton is currently priced at his ceiling, which is why I'm avoiding him in drafts this season.

Courtland Sutton is an easy fade this year.

Currently going as WR26 on Underdog.

Career production:

2018: 7.8 PPG (WR64)
2019: 11.7 PPG (WR27)
2020: 8.1 PPG (WR59)
2021: 7.1 PPG (WR67)
2022: 8.5 PPG (WR44)
2023: 10.0 PPG (WR36)
2024: 11.8 PPG (WR23)

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 22, 2025

While his ADP has fallen from WR26 to WR27 since this post, the point remains: it's going to be tough for you to get much profit on Sutton at this current cost, considering that his best finish in PPG is only WR23.

It's not like the Broncos are going to turn into a pass-heavy offense in Bo Nix's second season. They just drastically improved their backfield with RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, while their defense remains one of the best in the NFL.

Add in the fact that Evan Engram was brought in to take away some underneath targets, and you can see why Sutton's upside is capped. Not to mention the continued growth of Marvin Mims Jr., along with rookie Pat Bryant. It's becoming a more crowded group of pass-catchers in Denver.

Why would I take Sutton at this price when I could just go with players like Zay Flowers or Jaylen Waddle later in drafts?

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