College Football Underdog Picks: 5 Upset Predictions for Week 10 (2025)

October 28, 2025

Brant's best college football predictions and upset picks for Week 10 of the 2025 season. His top CFB underdogs and favorites on upset watch, including SMU, Kansas State, Nebraska, and more.

We’re fresh off another fun college football week that saw six ranked teams lose games, with one resulting in the firing of a coach as Brian Kelly was let go by LSU after losing his third SEC game of the season. From Memphis entering the chat for the G5 playoff race to Kelly’s firing, another tight Vanderbilt win, and a great Ole Miss road victory, the ever-shifting college football landscape continues to evolve before our very eyes.

It is nowhere near done evolving. Week 10 is here, and there are a number of highly-ranked teams with playoff aspirations that are traveling into hostile territory. These “trap games” need to be on everyone’s radar this weekend.

This weekend may be lacking in quote-on-quote big-time matchups, but there are so many upset opportunities looming that can open up many doors for underheralded teams. Keep a close eye on these five underdogs as we head into Week 10.

Texas State Bobcats (vs James Madison)

It really is the best time of the year once we have football on every single night. Starting with a Tuesday night game, do not sleep on the Texas State Bobcats as they welcome a hot James Madison team to town. 

JMU has lost just one game this season, losing by two touchdowns to a very good Louisville team. They’ve been otherwise dominant, most recently decimating a good Old Dominion team 63-27. 

Things have gone the other way for G.J. Kinne’s Texas State team. They dropped their last two games in overtime to Troy and Marshall, respectively, and lost their previous game by just one point to Arkansas State. The Bobcats’ defense has been a problem, but their offense can put up points with anybody. 

TOUCHDOWN #TXST

Bobcats back up by double digits, 38-27, after another Lincoln Pare score. Big day on the ground for the Bobcats. pic.twitter.com/n64XRVSs4v

— Keff Ciardello (@Keff_C) October 12, 2025

Texas State is due for a win, and what better spot to get one than on a Tuesday night at home in an electric offensive battle? You can always expect the unexpected in these mid-major Tuesday night games, and with the offense and coaching that the Bobcats have, a much-needed win can certainly happen.

SMU Mustangs (vs #10 Miami)

SMU lost its grip on the ACC race last weekend when it slipped up against Wake Forest, but they can right the ship with the highly rated Miami Hurricanes coming to town. 

The Hurricanes got right last weekend with a 42-7 win over Stanford after falling to Louisville the previous week. They are favored to make the College Football Playoff despite the loss. With that being said, a loss this weekend would really throw a damper on things.

This will be Miami’s first game outside of the state of Florida all season long. Let that sink in. This team is not used to road trips, and SMU’s crowd will certainly show out for a top-10 opponent.

This is a ridiculous TD pass from SMU QB Kevin Jennings in the Battle for the Iron Skillet pic.twitter.com/q6QX9rU49z

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) September 20, 2025

He is a very up-and-down player, but Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings has experience showing up in big moments. Carson Beck, meanwhile, tends to disappear when he is needed most. Both quarterbacks have good and bad flashes and can be erratic, but when it comes down to it, I trust Jennings and Rhett Lashlee at home more than I trust Beck and Mario Cristobal to get an important road win.

Duke Blue Devils (at Clemson)

Clemson already has four losses this season. It seems that at this point, they are favored nearly every week yet somehow find a way to lose. Dabo Swinney’s program is headed in a downward spiral, and the next team to reap the benefits is Duke.

Manny Diaz has quietly had a very successful tenure at Duke. While the Blue Devils have lost three games this season, they have been against quality opponents in Illinois, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. Quarterback Darian Mensah has been worth every penny after being paid handsomely this offseason, throwing for 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions so far this year. He has been precise and will be a big factor in the game this weekend.

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is pushing to play this weekend, but it is still unknown if he will be able to go. If he can’t, Christopher Vizzina will draw his second straight start after losing to SMU two weeks ago. Clemson is beat up right now, and the performance has not been there all season, while Duke still has a lot of pride to play for. 

Kansas State Wildcats (vs #13 Texas Tech)

I was right in my Kansas State pick last weekend, as the Wildcats coasted to a 42-17 victory over rival Kansas. If you ignore the first four games of the season, Kansas State looks like a top-25 team, as they were originally ranked. 

CATS GO YARD 💥

Avery Johnson finds Jayce Brown way downfield for the 78-YARD pitch-and-catch as @KStateFB adds some insurance to its second-half lead.#Big12FB | 📺 TNT pic.twitter.com/faEa8JfuB4

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 25, 2025

This weekend, they welcome a battered Texas Tech team to town. Quarterback Behren Morton is likely to start, but he has been in and out all season and has not played since leaving the October 11 win over Kansas. Backup quarterback Will Hammond tore his ACL, leaving the Red Raiders thin at the game’s most important position.

The K-State crowd will be ready to roll for this one as a playoff hopeful team comes to town. I’ve said it in this column before, and I will say it again: Just when you think you have the Big 12 figured out, something crazy happens. A Texas Tech loss would make it an uphill battle for them to make the playoffs, when just a few weeks ago, they looked like a lock. With the way that Avery Johnson and co are playing right now, don’t be shocked when Kansas State pulls off the upset this weekend.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (vs #23 USC)

This was an entertaining game a season ago, as USC narrowly squeaked by Nebraska. Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive this season, as the Trojans have struggled on the road and the Cornhuskers have struggled to get the offense going in crucial moments.

Lincoln Riley’s USC teams’ ineptness on the road is the main reason I like the Cornhuskers here. The Trojans are 2-6 in road games since joining the Big Ten, and Lincoln is certainly no easy place to play. Dylan Raiola has shown enough flashes to take advantage of a soft Trojans’ defense and is capable of making enough plays offensively to keep the Huskers afloat here. Give me Matt Rhule over Riley in a fun coaching matchup.

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