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Three fantasy baseball sleepers and pitcher draft values for 2025 drafts. Read the fantasy baseball outlooks for Justin Steele, David Festa, Jesus Luzardo.
Finding value in fantasy drafts is the most important thing you can do to build a winning fantasy baseball team!
Justin Steele, David Festa, and Jesus Luzardo are all interesting fantasy targets this year, but which of these three can be considered "sleepers" at their current ADP?
Should you draft Steele, Festa, or Luzardo in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2025 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
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Justin Steele Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 118
Current ADP: ~128
In 2024, Justin Steele built off of his breakout the year before, delivering a 3.07 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and averaging a strikeout per inning.
As a groundball pitcher, Steele’s GB rate dipped in 2024, and his flyball rate jumped up to a career-high, but he continued to demonstrate an ability to limit hard contact. In 2024, the lefty ranked in the 94th percentile in barrel rate and 88th in hard-hit rate and had a new career low in average exit velocity.
Justin Steele is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.
In 2024, he posted a 3.07 ERA over 134.2 innings, backed by elite metrics:
2.74 xERA
.212 xBA
86.9 Avg EV
4.2 Barrel%
33.2 Hard-Hit%pic.twitter.com/4Tuq1dVgee— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) March 4, 2025
A hamstring injury early in the season and a fight with elbow tendinitis towards the end limited Justin Steele to 134.2 IP last year, which might scare potential drafters off. His strikeout numbers won’t carry a team, but I’m looking forward to picking up Steele for the help he will give my team ratios.
David Festa Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 295
Current ADP: ~341
David Festa had a rude welcoming to the big leagues last season, getting roughed up for 12 runs in his first two starts before being sent back to the minors.
However, when the 6-foot-6 hurler was recalled, things went more smoothly. The former 13th-round draft pick made 10 more starts and pitched 54 1/3 more innings over the rest of the season, posting a 3.81 ERA (3.15 FIP), 1.25 WHIP, and a 20.4 percent K-BB rate.
David Festa's 5th Consecutive K. pic.twitter.com/9eFrczUKia
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 29, 2024
After allowing seven home runs in his first six appearances, he buckled down and yielded just two long balls over his final eight outings. Overall, the youngster finished with 77 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings pitched.
If the 24-year-old were guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation, this call would be a no-brainer at his current price. Unfortunately, he'll have to battle Simeon Woods Richardson, and perhaps Zebby Matthews, for the final rotation spot this spring.
If he starts in the minors, expect his name to be called early as soon as one of the starters succumbs to injury or underperforms (looking at you, Chris Paddack). Speaking of the minors, he owns a 29.9 percent career strikeout rate and 11.12 K/9 in the minors, so although major league hitters are a step above, you know he's got good stuff. Keep an eye on the rotation battle this spring.
Jesus Luzardo Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 225
Current ADP: ~262
Luzardo only made 12 starts before injury with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. However, the former top prospect has a much better team context for 2025 and has the opportunity to be a fantasy contributor.
My main excitement for Luzardo is based on his previous performance. He made 50 starts covering 279 IP between 2022-23 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 28.7 percent strikeout rate. He also had encouraging signs in 2024. His off-speed pitches were both fantastic, with his slider and changeup generating 21.8 percent and 22.2 percent swinging strike rates, respectively.
Six starting pitchers had 2+ offerings with a 40+% whiff rate in 2024, min 200 pitches for each offering.
Blake Snell (3)
Tyler Glasnow
Jesús Luzardo
Reese Olson
Spencer Schwellenbach
Kyle Gibson pic.twitter.com/aeMZ9MAB0Y— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025
Luzardo's new team should also provide a boost to his fantasy value. He produced at times with both the Athletics and Marlins but has never had the opportunity to pitch in a strong rotation with a high-end lineup supporting him. This should put Luzardo in the best position of his career to earn wins.
The fantasy community at large seems to not have Luzardo on their radar, as his current ADP is 317. This is a vast difference from the 2024 drafts when Luzardo was being drafted at pick 87 overall. Luzardo will be a nice value pick at his current ADP if he regresses even a little, with the opportunity to be a huge value if he can reproduce his 2023 numbers.
Popular Player Comparison Searches - Who To Draft?
Below are some popular preseason searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for Justin Steele, David Festa, Jesus Luzardo compared to others. You can also use the free Who Should I Draft tool to run your own draft comparisons, up to four players at once:
Luis Castillo or Justin Steele
Freddy Peralta or Justin Steele
Bailey Ober or Justin Steele
Dj Herz or David Festa
Shota Imanaga or Justin Steele
Spencer Schwellenbach or Justin Steele
Taj Bradley or Jesus Luzardo
Bryce Miller or Justin Steele
Clarke Schmidt or Jesus Luzardo
Jack Flaherty or Justin Steele
Jordan Walker or Jesus Luzardo
Michael Wacha or David Festa
Nick Lodolo or Jesus Luzardo
Zac Gallen or Justin Steele
Gavin Williams or Jesus Luzardo
Kodai Senga or Jesus Luzardo
Nick Pivetta or Jesus Luzardo
Ranger Suarez or Jesus Luzardo
Shane Baz or Jesus Luzardo
Adolis Garcia or Jesus Luzardo
Brandon Nimmo or Justin Steele
Brandon Pfaadt or David Festa
Cristopher Sanchez or Jesus Luzardo
Dj Herz or Jesus Luzardo
Edwin Diaz or Justin Steele
Jeimer Candelario or David Festa
Jeimer Candelario or David Festa
Joe Ryan or Justin Steele
Kevin Gausman or Jesus Luzardo
Kutter Crawford or Jesus Luzardo
Mason Miller or Justin Steele
Max Scherzer or Jesus Luzardo
Michael King or Jesus Luzardo
Nolan Schanuel or David Festa
Pete Crowarmstrong or Justin Steele
Robbie Ray or Jesus Luzardo
Ryan Helsley or Justin Steele
Sean Manaea or Jesus Luzardo
Shane Mcclanahan or Justin Steele
Taj Bradley or Justin Steele
Tanner Bibee or Justin Steele
Adolis Garcia or Justin Steele
Alec Burleson or Jesus Luzardo
Alex Bregman or Justin Steele
Anthony Volpe or David Festa
Anthony Volpe or Jesus Luzardo
Bailey Ober or Justin Steele
Brady Singer or David Festa
Brandon Woodruff or Jesus Luzardo
Bryan Woo or Justin Steele
Bryan Woo or Justin Steele
Bryan Woo or Justin Steele
Bryce Miller or Justin Steele
Charlie Morton or Jesus Luzardo
Chris Sale or Justin Steele
Chris Sale or Justin Steele
Christian Yelich or Justin Steele
Colt Keith or David Festa
David Peterson or David Festa
Dean Kremer or David Festa
Dj Herz or David Festa
Dj Herz or David Festa
Dj Herz or David Festa
Dylan Moore or David Festa
Erick Fedde or Jesus Luzardo
Felix Bautista or Jesus Luzardo
Framber Valdez or Justin Steele
Freddy Peralta or Jesus Luzardo
Freddy Peralta or Justin Steele
George Kirby or Justin Steele
George Springer or Jesus Luzardo
Gerrit Cole or Justin Steele
Grayson Rodriguez or Justin Steele
Grayson Rodriguez or Justin Steele
Hunter Brown or Justin Steele
Jack Flaherty or Jesus Luzardo
Jack Flaherty or Justin Steele
Jackson Jobe or Jesus Luzardo
Jackson Jobe or Jesus Luzardo
Jacob Degrom or Justin Steele
Jake Burger or Justin Steele
Jake Burger or Justin Steele
Jake Irvin or Jesus Luzardo
Jeimer Candelario or David Festa
Jose Soriano or David Festa
Kristian Campbell or David Festa
Kumar Rocker or David Festa
Kumar Rocker or David Festa
Kutter Crawford or David Festa
Kutter Crawford or David Festa
Kyle Harrison or David Festa
Lars Nootbaar or Jesus Luzardo
Lars Nootbaar or Jesus Luzardo
Logan Webb or Justin Steele
Luis Castillo or Justin Steele
Luis Rengifo or Jesus Luzardo
Luis Severino or Jesus Luzardo
Mackenzie Gore or Jesus Luzardo
Mackenzie Gore or Jesus Luzardo
Mackenzie Gore or Justin Steele
Marcus Semien or Jesus Luzardo
Masataka Yoshida or David Festa
Mason Miller or Justin Steele
Mason Miller or Justin Steele
Matt Olson or Jesus Luzardo
Mauricio Dubon or David Festa
Max Fried or Justin Steele
Max Fried or Justin Steele
Merrill Kelly or David Festa
Michael Toglia or Jesus Luzardo
Nick Martinez or David Festa
Nolan Schanuel or David Festa
Nolan Schanuel or David Festa
Ozzie Albies or Justin Steele
Pablo Lopez or Justin Steele
Reid Detmers or David Festa
Reynaldo Lopez or David Festa
Robbie Ray or Jesus Luzardo
Robbie Ray or Jesus Luzardo
Roman Anthony or Jesus Luzardo
Ronel Blanco or David Festa
Ryan Pepiot or Justin Steele
Ryan Weathers or David Festa
Sean Burke or David Festa
Sean Manaea or David Festa
Sean Murphy or Jesus Luzardo
Shane Baz or Jesus Luzardo
Shane Baz or Justin Steele
Sonny Gray or Justin Steele
Spencer Steer or Justin Steele
Tomoyuki Sugano or David Festa
Trevor Story or David Festa
Triston Casas or Justin Steele
Tyler Fitzgerald or David Festa
Tyler Glasnow or Justin Steele
Walker Buehler or David Festa
Walker Buehler or David Festa
Walker Buehler or David Festa
Will Smith or Justin Steele
Willi Castro or David Festa
Willi Castro or David Festa
Yu Darvish or Jesus Luzardo
Yu Darvish or Jesus Luzardo
Zac Gallen or Justin Steele
Zach Neto or Justin Steele
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