RADIO
Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park. His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.
But how does this field stack up at the top? Who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open!
No. 10 - Nicolai Højgaard
With a past champions list that includes Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger, Tony Finau, and Jason Kokrak, it’s clear that distance off the tee has been a consistent through line to success at Memorial Park. It’s no surprise why: with rough kept below two inches, the layout has ranked dead last on the PGA Tour in missed fairway penalty in each of the last two seasons.
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSFew players are better positioned to take advantage than Højgaard. I highlighted his trending form ahead of last week’s Valspar Championship, and while an uncharacteristically poor putting performance on Saturday derailed his chances in Palm Harbor, this week’s 7,500-yard setup should only enhance his profile.
Where Innisbrook Resort demands positional play and restraint off the tee, Memorial Park allows one of the game’s longest hitters to fully unleash his advantage. Even in a missed cut here last year, Højgaard still gained over a stroke per round off the tee -- and returns this week as one of the field’s premier iron players with a steadily improving putter.
Unlike most in a field featuring just three of the world’s top 20, Højgaard also brings a proven winning pedigree. He outclassed a significantly stronger field to win the DP World Tour Championship in 2023, and despite turning just 25 earlier this month, already owns four worldwide victories.
With four top-six finishes in his last 10 starts -- and only two results worse than 27th over that span -- Højgaard enters as a quietly in-form presence in a field lacking elite depth. If books hang a number north of 40-1 following last week’s disappointing finish, I’ll be more than willing to buy back in -- this time on a layout that accentuates his strengths as well as any on Tour.
No. 9 - Marco Penge
This Marco Penge shot gets better with every watch! pic.twitter.com/6fogbJZRaH
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) December 24, 2025
Staying on the theme of European firepower, Penge is finally beginning to produce results that match the talent he displayed overseas throughout the 2025 campaign.
Across that stretch, the Englishman established himself as one of the game’s elite drivers. He gained a remarkable 1.08 strokes per round off the tee on the DP World Tour last season, and through the first three months of 2026, he has already surged to the top of the PGA Tour’s driving leaderboards.
That weapon alone was enough to deliver a surprise top-20 in his debut at Riviera Country Club, but last week at Innisbrook Resort offered a glimpse of something more. Penge paired his best putting performance of the season (+3.81) with his strongest approach week (+1.84), ultimately riding the all-around effort to a T4 finish.
Now he arrives at Memorial Park -- a layout that should only further accentuate his greatest strength. With wide fairways and minimal penalty for missed lines off the tee, Penge will have every opportunity to lean on his distance and create scoring chances.
And unlike many newcomers still finding their footing, Penge has already proven he can close. His three wins in 22 starts on the DP World Tour last season point to a player who is comfortable converting contention into trophies.
I listed Penge as the most enticing incoming rookie of the 2026 class at the start of the year, and his performances to date have done nothing to push me off of that position. Just 12 months ago, we saw another three-time winner on the DP World Tour capture his first PGA title. Penge is yet another reminder that the Tour’s incoming talent pool dips well beyond domestic borders.
No. 8 - Adam Scott
There hasn’t been quite the same early buzz around Scott heading into The Masters as we’ve seen for names like Koepka or Patrick Reed, but by the underlying metrics, there may not be a purer ball-striker in this field.
While the penal confines of Bay Hill and Sawgrass threw a wrench in Scott’s power profile off the tee, he’s stunningly maintained elite driving distance into his mid-40s: currently ranking between Chris Gotterup and Alejandro Tosti in average ball speed (184.1) so far in 2026.
Before a 42.9% fairway percentage in Orlando and Ponte Vedra tanked his incoming driving splits, Scott had gained an average of 0.84 strokes per round across his first four starts of the season — a figure that would currently rank him 2nd behind Penge in SG: Off-the-Tee.
To go along with his driving prowess, Scott’s iron play has re-emerged as one of the most impressive weapons on Tour. Through six starts in the new season, Scott has gained an average of 3.15 strokes per week on approach — including the fifth-best mark in the field at last week’s PLAYERS Championship (+6.06).
In this field, he currently sits third over his last 24 rounds on Approach, and his distance-heavy driving profile will present much better on Memorial Park’s generous fairways. While it’s been over six years since the Australian legend’s last win on U.S. soil, this kind of sustained ball-striking is as clear an indicator as we possess of future success. Whether it comes in a weaker Houston Open field or in two weeks as a past champion at Augusta National is anyone's guess.
No. 7 - Sam Burns
Outside of a brief run into contention at Pebble Beach Golf Links, it’s been a slow start to 2026 for Burns. But if there’s a get-right spot on the schedule, Memorial Park may be exactly it.
Even amid the inconsistent results, two of Burns’ core strengths remain firmly intact: power off the tee and elite putting. Across his last 50 rounds, he ranks as one of the top putters in this field while still sitting comfortably above average in carry distance -- an ideal combination for a layout that rewards length and offers scoring opportunities on the greens.
We saw a glimpse of that upside in his most recent start at TPC Sawgrass, where he gained nearly ten strokes combined off the tee and on the greens. The issue, as it has been throughout the early part of the season, lies in the middle of the bag. Inconsistent iron play and a shaky short game have kept him from attaining the consistency he's shown in past seasons.
Still, Burns doesn’t need to be perfect to contend here. With five PGA Tour victories, a strong track record in Texas, and a pair of seventh-place finishes at Memorial Park already on his résumé, the path is clear. If the irons can simply trend toward the field average, his ceiling makes him one of the more dangerous wild cards in a field that thins out quickly behind Scheffler.
No. 6 - Michael Thorbjornsen
2024 PGA TOUR U No. 1 Michael Thorbjornsen pulls within one of the lead @THEPLAYERS ... one back of 2023 PGA TOUR U No. 1 Ludvig Åberg 🎓 pic.twitter.com/nqlznvMAQJ
— PGA TOUR University (@PGATOURU) March 14, 2026
Sunday at TPC Sawgrass didn’t go to plan for Thorbjornsen, as a final-round 77 dropped him from solo second into a T22 finish. Still, the result undersells what was otherwise one of the more impressive all-around performances in the field.
Across four days in Ponte Vedra, the former Stanford University standout gained strokes in all four major categories, highlighted by a dominant showing off the tee -- picking up over three strokes on a layout that typically neutralizes even the game’s longest hitters.
That driving profile becomes even more valuable this week at Memorial Park, where missed fairways carry minimal penalty and distance can be fully leveraged. Thorbjornsen already showed as much here a year ago, ranking second in the field off the tee while gaining nearly four strokes with a blend of power and accuracy that few can replicate.
This season, the 24-year-old has shown he’s far from a one-note tune -- notching impressive finishes around the demanding layouts of TPC Scottsdale and Torrey Pines in addition to his stint in contention last week. He now grades in the 92nd percentile in long-iron play and inside the top 20 in this field around the greens. With his established weaponry off the tee, there’s no doubt he’s one of the game’s ascending talents. On a driver-heavy layout in Houston, he’s as dangerous as they come outside of the few proven entities contesting this title.
No. 5 - Jake Knapp
Until odds are released, it’s difficult to gauge just how much Knapp’s quiet finish to the Florida swing has impacted public perception. While the lingering health concerns aren’t ideal for an outright ticket, his underlying profile remains about as clean a fit for Memorial Park as you’ll find in this field.
Like several names above him, Knapp brings elite speed off the tee -- ranking between Lee and Gary Woodland (last year’s winner and runner-up) in carry distance over the past 12 months. On a layout that minimizes missed fairway penalties, that alone provides a significant edge.
But Knapp’s appeal goes well beyond raw power. Through 22 rounds this season, he ranks inside the top 40 in all four strokes gained categories -- a level of all-around consistency that even Scheffler cannot match. He also leads the field in season-long putting, gaining 1.29 strokes per round on the greens.
From general design to past leaderboards, the parallels between Memorial Park and Vidanta Vallarta -- the site of Knapp's maiden PGA Tour victory -- are hard to ignore. Both feature driver-heavy, wide-open layouts that heavily favor distance. And if last year is anything to go on, a winning score of -20.
Despite already posting finishes of fifth, sixth, eighth (twice), and 11th across his first six starts of the year, there’s a strong case that this is his best pure course fit to date. If the week off has helped alleviate the back concerns -- and perhaps cooled public enthusiasm in the process -- Knapp sets up as one of the more intriguing breakout candidates in a field that lacks depth behind the top tier.
No. 4 - Brooks Koepka
Few players in this field carry the established fanbase and attention that Koepka commands, and his continued comeback has given them plenty of reasons to believe. His T18 at last week’s Valspar Championship understates just how impactful he was midway through Saturday, before driving struggles on the back nine of Round 3 began to catch up with him.
There is plenty to be encouraged about, especially after a shaky start to the season on the West Coast. Koepka returned to his home state and posted three top-20 finishes -- re-establishing himself as one of the game’s premier iron players in the process. Across 12 rounds at Palm Beach, Ponte Vedra, and Palm Harbor, he gained 15.2 strokes on approach, and now heads to a venue that should cover up many of the flaws that cost him around Innisbrook.
Memorial Park, with its bottom-five rough penalty over the last two seasons, will be a welcome sight for Koepka’s recently misfiring driver. And his hand in re-designing this layout will certainly give him a leg up, as we rarely see on the PGA Tour:
"And it's been cool just to see it evolve. I know this golf course is quite difficult. It's quite long. You'll see some high numbers, especially if the wind gets up. It kind of resembles a little bit of a U.S. Open, which I feel like I've done pretty well at."
Of course, just as it always has been with Koepka, the Major Championships this year will be the true barometer of his current place among the game’s elite. But with his game in the spot it’s in, his standing as one of the favorites this week is not one based simply on name brand. All signs point to a resurgent year from one of this generation's all-time greats.
No. 3 - Chris Gotterup
If there were any out there that doubted the sustainability of Gotterup’s red-hot start, his two starts in Florida gave us some clear credence to his adaptability on less-than-stellar setups.
Despite hitting a paltry 46 of 112 fairways on two of the Tour’s most accuracy-intensive setups, Gotterup spent much of the last two weeks at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass in and around the top 30 -- gaining a combined 2.8 strokes with his iron play whilst playing out of some of the most difficult rough that can be found all season long.
Like Koepka then, Gotterup should be licking his chops for this week’s distance-biased venue. The Oklahoma product has already excelled on driver-heavy courses this season, gaining +3.82 strokes off the tee at Torrey Pines Golf Course and +4.04 at TPC Scottsdale.
No. 2 - Min Woo Lee
Min Woo Lee's eagle at the Australian Open gets more ridiculous the more you watch it 🤯#AusOpenGolf pic.twitter.com/OfEWp7bx6U
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) December 2, 2025
The electrifying Lee didn’t quite deliver on many expectations at TPC Sawgrass last week. Despite repeated success in Ponte Vedra, his occasionally erratic power game has made some question his suitability for highly positional layouts.
Memorial Park, however, leaves no such doubts. With wide fairways and a minimal missed-fairway penalty, it’s tailor-made for Lee’s game. Just 12 months ago, he leveraged his combination of driving power and short-game touch to set a tournament scoring record at -20, securing a one-shot win.
While putting was the standout storyline here in 2025, the New Year has brought another stage in the young Australian’s progression. In just six starts this season, Lee has posted two of the top three iron weeks of his five-year PGA Tour career -- and maybe more notably, he did so in two of the strongest fields of the new campaign (+4.59 at Bay Hill Club & Lodge and +4.69 at Pebble Beach Golf Links).
With his established weapons off the tee and around the greens, any steady contribution from Min Woo's approach play will do wonders for his weekly projection. Despite a relative disappointment at the PLAYERS Championship, Lee remains one of the most dangerous competitors in this field -- and a legitimate threat to repeat as Houston Open Champion.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
There are more questions around Scheffler's game than there have been in years heading into the year's first Major Championship, but perhaps a return to his home state of Texas can quell the concerns of the masses.
Scheffler himself has been adamant with the media that he's not looking to change anything despite this recent run of uncompetitive results. But in Houston this week, his presence looms larger than in the Signature Events he’s contested over his last four starts.
In his two non-Signature appearances this year, Scheffler finished 1st and 3rd in Palm Springs and Scottsdale. At Memorial Park, he’s been nearly untouchable, posting three runner-ups and a ninth-place finish over his last four starts here.
Recent ball-striking splits leave some room for concern -- he’s lost a total of 2.48 strokes off the tee in three starts since the Genesis Invitational -- but the course should provide ample opportunity to reassert himself as one of the game’s premier iron players.
Over his last 16 rounds at the Houston Open, Scheffler has gained more than a stroke per round on approach while never losing strokes off the tee. A year ago, he posted the second-best putting week of his season on these over-seeded complexes. Looking across his last 75 rounds, he still leads this field in key metrics, including SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach, and Overall Approach Proximity. With just one other member of the World’s Top 10 present this week, Scheffler remains the clear favorite and the man to beat at the top of this field.
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
