RADIO
I have written the Bullpen Report every week during the fantasy baseball season for the past three years here at RotoBaller. The one thing that you quickly learn is that bullpen arms are volatile. Just because a reliever was awesome last year does not guarantee future success.
Now that does not mean they will fall off a cliff. Just that it is very difficult to duplicate success year-over-year in a small sample position. Think about it, relievers will throw around 60 innings a season. One bad day could blow up the ratios. Any down performance gets magnetized when you pitch an inning at a time.
It is never fun to write about busts -- but I hope you understand I am not saying these relievers will be busts this season. I am saying that there are reasons to expect regression, whether that be a change in role, overperforming metrics the year prior, or some combination of reasons. Here are relievers that still can be useful in fantasy baseball, but likely will not be as good as they were in 2023.
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Breakouts Due for Regression in 2024
Emmanuel Clase is a perfect example of a reliever who will still be very useful in fantasy this season. In fact, he will be a must-start. But he continues to go as a top-20 arm off the board with the other elite options. That is after we saw his strikeout rate drop seven percentage points to a career-low 21 percent. His walk rate jumped back up, he posted a career-high in batting average against, WHIP, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and a career-low ground ball and strand rate. He still managed to pick up 44 saves last year and has earned a very long leash here. He will still likely finish as an RP1, but do not be surprised if this season is more rocky than in the past.
The Concatenated Case of Emmanuel Clase https://t.co/lW4BWV1Y5Y
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) January 16, 2024
Alex Lange was awesome in the first half of the season. So if you checked out in the summertime, you may be surprised to see his name on this list. From June 1 on, he had an ERA over five. His strikeout rate dipped by nearly five percent in the second half and his walk rate jumped to 17 percent after being an already high 14.5 percent in the first half. His WHIP jumped from 1.25 in the first half to 1.43 in the second. All of his ERA metrics were raised in the second half as well. A high walk rate is naturally trouble for a closer, but a decreasing strikeout rate only makes it that much tougher. Add on that another option in Jason Foley, who pitched very well in a setup role last year, even picking up seven saves. Foley brings upside as an RP2, but there are certainly risks.
I know the assumption is that Alex Lange will continue being the closer in 2024….
But to be honest I’d love to see Beau Brieske get a longer look at closer. I really think he has the potential to thrive in that role.
pic.twitter.com/SrDkB8ubvr— Griff (@deeptocenter) February 9, 2024
Alexis Diaz picked up 37 saves last season, has electric stuff, and is the younger brother of one of the best relievers in the game. So why could regression hit? Well, because we already have kind of seen it. Last year in the first half, he pitched to a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 37 percent strikeout rate. In the second half, that jumped to a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with a 20 percent strikeout rate. He saw his strand rate drop 20 percentage points. His average, OBP, and wOBA against all shot up. If we get the first half Diaz for the entire season, he could be elite. But if we get the second half Diaz, he could lose the gig. There is a wide range of outcomes here.
Yennier Cano was awesome last year and a frequent name included in my bullpen report. He picked up eight saves but provided elite ratios as the Orioles set up man. He will once again be in that role, this time setting up for Craig Kimbrel. Perhaps he can see more save opportunities if Kimbrel struggles like we have seen in the past. It is also possible regression hits Cano, though. He posted a 2.11 ERA last year, while his xERA was 3.25. All his ERA indicators were higher than his ERA. He also benefited from a high strand rate (81 percent). Cano should still be a reliable setup man, but do not be surprised if he fails to deliver the ratios he did this past season.
Adbert Alzolay was great last year, largely because he came out of nowhere and was a waiver wire pickup. You will need to pay up for him this year. And there are certainly some causes for regression concern. Last year, he had a 2.67 ERA, but a 3.58 xERA and 3.56 xFIP. He also saw his ERA, WHIP, and ERA indicators all jump up in the second half, while the strikeout rate dipped and the walk rate climbed. Plus, he has a new manager now and Craig Counsell was not afraid to jumble his relievers in the past. He will enter the year as the Cubs closer and could prove to be worth the draft day cost, but regression concerns are there.
Justin Lawrence finished last year as the Rockies closer with 11 saves. But you know the risk Rockies relievers bring. One bad performance can blow up your ratios and a couple in a row could cost them the gig. That is especially concerning knowing that he pitched to a 5.40 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at home last year. Plus, Daniel Bard still looms and could regain the closer gig at any point. Lawrence will be cheap in drafts but understand the risks.
Kyle Finnegan was in and out of the closer role for the Nats last year. He had lost the role to Hunter Harvey at one point, but injury gave it back to Finnegan. That is one big risk alone with Finnegan. Harvey could steal the gig and reduce Finnegan to a setup man without an elite strikeout rate or ratios. That is a waiver-wire arm in fantasy baseball. Additionally, Finnegan had a 4.83 xERA last year, more than a full run higher than his 3.76 ERA. It's possible he finds himself on the waiver wire at times this year.
Jason Adam was awesome last year. He was frequently included in the Bullpen Report and ended up finishing with a 2.98 ERA and 12 saves. But what stands out is his xERA was over a run higher at 4.33. All his ERA indicators were at 3.8 or higher. Plus, he pitches on the team that is most unpredictable when it comes to late-inning reliever usage. Adam was awesome last year when he was found off the waiver wire. It is a different story when you need to pay up in drafts for him. His stuff is very good so he can make me look foolish, but he is not without concerns.
Ryan Pressly is a bit of an easy one here. He is a very reliable reliever, but the issue is he will no longer be closing games for the Astros. Not after they gave $95 million to Josh Hader. Pressly should be one of the best setup men in the game who should get some save chances, but it would take an injury to Hader for him to be anything more than that. The days of him being an elite fantasy baseball option are on pause.
Will Josh Hader displace Ryan Pressly as closer? And is Yainer Diaz ready to be the primary catcher?https://t.co/uXwJklwGvc
— Houston Chronicle (@HoustonChron) February 13, 2024
Carlos Estevez was awesome in the first half, pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with a 29 percent strikeout rate. He was the exact opposite in the second half, posting a 6.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and a 26 percent strikeout rate. The truth is somewhere in the middle, but all his ERA indicators show he is more of a middle reliever than a late-inning arm. Plus, the Angels signed Robert Stephenson, who is expected to close. Estevez is merely a late-round dart throw.
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