X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards (Part 3)

Antonio Losada looks at NBA guards who look like draft sleepers or busts in the 2022-2023 fantasy basketball season judging by their early ADP prices.

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage.

Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good and for the bad. For whatever reason -- be it talent, a lack/surplus of opportunity, or some combination of those and multiple other things -- these are players who I'm actively tracking in drafts to see how their ADP evolves as we get closer to the regular season.

Let's look at some guards who have sleeper/bust potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues.

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards

Overvalued: Josh Giddey, SG/SF (OKC) - ADP: 55.2

Giddey was a phenomenal rookie last season, and definitely one most folks weren't expecting to perform to such great extents as those he reached. He missed on getting into the top-100 fantasy players of 2022, though, but that had more to do with his 54 GP over the year than his actual performance on the court when available.

Giddey posted a nice 33.4 FPPG mark to go with an above-average 1.06 FP/min. Just for context, Cole Anthony and Kevin Porter Jr. were the closest to Giddey's fantasy averages last year. Good, not great, one could say, although it also must be said that those two broke into the top-80 while Giddey fell 20+ positions short of that in the fantasy ranks.

KPJ's and Anthony's ADP figures right now sit at around 108th and 126th OVR, something much more reasonable than Giddey's ADP of 55. That's why those two project to become steals (or at least, positive ROI returners) while Giddey projects to become a tank commander with a negative ROI for those drafting him at his current ADP.

Giddey is a very unique player, don't get me wrong: only 15 (!!!) times has a player posted a 12-7-6 line in the history of the NBA. Seriously. Giddey and a certain Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only ones to do it before turning 21-years-old. That is great, and Giddey is definitely a phenomenal source of all types of stats--he also averaged 0.9 SPG and 0.4 BPG, just in case.

Is that all-around-contributor profile worth such a high pick, though? As much as Giddey produces, it is also true that his stats and "uniqueness" looks like cherry-picking a combined line. In fact, and only looking at data from last season, there were up to 98 players (min. 1700 MP) with 12+ PPG, 41 with 7+ RPG, and 20 with 6+ APG--all of those figures being the ones posted by Giddey.

The question is: would you rather have a player helping you in all of the statistical categories but with a cap applied to all of them... or a bonafide top-five performer at a single one or two? Given the price of admission to Giddey's camp, I'm inclined to side with a legitimate superstar at something priced at a top-dollar ADP than a do-it-all-on-the-low top-dollar option like Giddey.

Undervalued: Terry Rozier, PG/SG (CHA) - ADP: 59.2

I have to confess that I was afraid LaMelo Ball's arrival in Charlotte a few years ago was going to hurt Terry Rozier's numbers a lot. Turns out I was totally wrong. Rozier signed with Charlotte, is the clear-cut starting two-guard, has some point-guard chops to his game, and his current ADP is looking like a better and better bargain by the day.

Rozier only started 30 games while playing for the Celtics in a total of 272 matches. Then he moved south to Charlotte and he's started all 205 games he's played with the Hornets while averaging a ridiculous 34 MPG. His usage rate has gone from 14.0 percent to 24.4 and lastly 23.2 in 2022. His rate and efficiency numbers, mind you, haven't gone down with the larger volume he's handled.

Rozier has been able to keep up a 20 AST% in back-to-back years and he's also done that in the TRB% (nearly 7 percent), STL% (almost 2 percent), and BLK% (one percent) while actually lowering his turnover rate to a career-low 7.2%. When it comes to shooting, Rozier has also had three very similarly good years in the past three seasons, hitting 55.5, 57.7, and lastly 56.6 TS% figures with the Hornets.

While an ADP of 59 OVR isn't a cheap one by definition it is still looking like a very tasty value for fantasy GMs to snatch "late" in their leagues' drafts. Rozier has finished 48th, 22nd, and 32nd OVR in the past three fantasy seasons and is inside the top-15 players with most of their minutes at a guard (one or two) position.

Overvalued: Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG (PHI) - ADP: 65.6

I wrote about Maxey's rise from 2021 to 2022 just a few weeks ago, and I stand on that improvement. It is factual, and objective, and it can't be argued that Maxey truly experienced huge growth from his rookie season to his sophomore one. He went from a top-250 player to nearly a top-55 one. That, though, doesn't paint the whole picture not even start telling you everything that made that possible.

Basically, Maxey's sudden and unstoppable raise happened after his role got magnified, going from playing 61 games and 15+ MPG (eight starts) in 2021 to a monster 75 (74 GS) and 35+ MPG last year for the 76ers. Maxey made the most of his 2,640+ minutes on the court and that bulky playing time certainly helped his counting stats. On a per-minute basis, though, Maxey fell below the NBA-average line of 0.90 FP/min posting a 0.86 FP/min figure and actually playing less efficient basketball compared to that of his rookie season (0.93).

A full season playing next to James Harden will inevitably hurt Maxey's numbers in 2023 because of all of the touches the Beard will gather. Even then, though, Maxey should still be good for a top-100 (good!) but it's going to be very hard for him to close next season at his prior top-50 levels all things considered.

Drafting Maxey as early as with the 65th OVR pick might turn out to be the right move, but if you fall on the side of the risk-averse fantasy GMs, it'd be perfectly understandable to punt on Maxey and err on safer players available in his range.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaylen Johnson

Chargers Place Jaylen Johnson on PUP List
Dereck Lively II

Undergoes Right-Foot Surgery Tuesday
Kendrick Bourne

Kayshon Boutte Fighting for Final Spots
Isaiah Collier

Logs a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Monday
DeMario Douglas

Kyle Williams "Locks" for Receiving Corps
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Finalizing Massive Extension
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Expected to Ease Anthony Richardson Sr. Back in
Devin Carter

Posts 17 Points Versus Suns
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 17 Points in Summer League Loss
Terry McLaurin

Undecided on Whether he Will Report to Training Camp
Colston Loveland

Says his Shoulder is 100 Percent
Harrison Ingram

has Impressive Outing Against Jazz
Sam Williams

has Potential to be Elite Edge Rusher
Shemar Stewart

Considering Going Back to College?
Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions Want Jahmyr Gibbs "More Involved" in Passing Game
Jordan Addison

Could be Facing Three-Game Suspension
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Kyle Filipowski

Records 35-Point Double-Double Against Spurs
Kel'el Ware

Dominates Against Celtics
Kon Knueppel

Gets Going Monday
Matas Buzelis

Puts Up 28 Points in Win Over Pacers
Reed Sheppard

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
Paul George

Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Najee Harris

Likely to Miss Time at Start of Training Camp
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Collin Morikawa

Misses The Cut at Genesis Scottish Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 13th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooks Koepka

Finishes Tied For 32nd at LIV Andalucia
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For 34th at Genesis Scottish Open
Jason Day

Misses The Cut at John Deere Classic
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Cam Taylor-Britt

has Benefited From Addition of Al Golden
Rome Odunze

Could Take Off in Year 2
RJ Harvey

to Get "Significant" Work in Broncos' Passing Game
Jackson Powers-Johnson

More Comfortable Heading into Year 2
Luke McCaffrey

In Line for Larger Role?
Braelon Allen

Jets Viewing Braelon Allen as Long-Term Starter?
Joel Embiid

Participating in Partial Basketball Activities
Victor Wembanyama

Officially Cleared to Return After Blood-Clot Recovery
Mike Williams

Heading to PUP List
Garrett Wilson

Lands Historic Deal
Colston Loveland

Shoulder "Good" After Surgery
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF