2020 Early Bullpen Outlooks - N.L. West

February 13, 2020

David A Marcillo dives into each NL West team's bullpen heading into the 2020 fantasy baseball season. This series will look into each division in order to advise for fantasy value and ADP.

We've made it out west, folks! After covering every American League team and all of the National League East and Central, it's time for our final division of the winter: the National League West. The NL West has the bullpen that is likely to be the best in the National League. It also has one that may be one of the worst. With three (and maybe even four) "Solid" ratings on our Rotoballer Closers & Saves Depth Charts it is the best established division in the National League, at least in terms of bullpens.

There aren't many changes in terms of personnel to talk about in the NL West, but some roles have been established, others have been re-established, and some have slightly altered. It should be an interesting division to keep an eye on throughout the season, and there's plenty of fantasy value to be had from each team.

Let's ride into the sunset together and see what the National League West bullpens look like right before Spring Training kicks off.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks were decent last year, finishing with an 85-77 record. With the regular season juggernaut Dodgers in the division, however, the 85 wins still left them 21 games out of first place. They have a solid core and some offseason moves could propel them a bit for 2020. The bullpen looks more or less set, with Archie Bradley heading into Spring Training as the closer. Bradley picked up 18 saves in 21 chances last season, pitching to a 3.52 ERA/4.06 xFIP. He struck out 27.4% of the batters he faced while walking 11.4%. SIERA had him at 4.03 for the season. None of these numbers are particularly eye opening, but they're all certainly "good enough". Bradley should be able to keep the ninth inning to himself for most of the season and does have some upside if he can reign in his control a bit. He's not a guy that you must get in the draft and definitely not a guy to reach for, but he is a guy who you can be happy with if you waited on closers.

Elsewhere in the Arizona bullpen will be Kevin Ginkel, Hector Rondon, and Junior Guerra. Ginkel has some nice strikeout upside and should work as one of the key setup men ahead of Bradley. Ginkel debuted last season with a 29.2 K% and posted some outrageous numbers in the minors, including a 53.7 K% in Triple-A, albeit in just 16 2/3 innings. His control hasn't been perfect, as seen by his 9.4% BB% in his big league innings last season, but if he can work on his control a bit, he has elite holds league potential. Rondon will likely throw some significant innings in his first season as a Diamondback, but he's a guy with more value to his real team than to any fantasy team. Guerra is similar to Rondon in that regard. Both have experience and could be called upon for saves now and then, but Bradley and Ginkel are the arms to own from the desert.

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies bullpen was a wild ride last season, with injuries and ineffectiveness reigning supreme. Wade Davis returns in 2020, and the Rockies reportedly want him to close. That went excruciatingly poorly in 2019, as Davis posted an 8.65 ERA/5.80 xFIP, somehow only blowing three saves in the process. He struck out 20.4% of batters faced and walked 14.1%. It was an overwhelmingly bad season for a formerly elite relief pitcher, and the Rockies are clearly hoping he can return to the form that earned him a three-year, $52 million contract. There's little reason to believe he'll ever be that guy again, but it isn't far-fetched to think he'll at least improve on his 2019 numbers. Davis may be the closer to start the season, but he's perhaps the least likely Opening Day closer in the NL West to keep his job all year.

Davis will be backed up by Scott Oberg, who took over for Davis last season before suffering a medical issue that cut his season short. Oberg was solid when on the mound, pitching to a 2.25 ERA/3.90 xFIP. He posted a 26.0% K% and a 10.3% BB%. He's solid enough on the mound, but there were some concerning signs pointing toward possible regression in 2020. SIERA had him at an even 4.00, and his .248 BABIP and 80% LOB% are sure to change. Still, Oberg is in position to take over the closer's role as soon as Davis falters, so he's worth keeping an eye on in most formats. Carlos Estevez and Jairo Diaz will also throw important innings in 2020, but neither is worth a look in standard formats at this point.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is going to be absolutely ridiculous in 2020. With the Mookie Betts trade, their lineup will now arguably have two of the top five players in baseball in it every day. Their bullpen, however, is a different story and may be one of the key weaknesses addressed by the team as the summer drags on. For now, it's Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning again. The formerly elite, unquestionably top-three closer in baseball has had two down years in a row (by his standards) although 2019 was a slight bounce back from a career-worst 2018. Last season, Jansen saved 33 games in 41 chances, posting a 3.71 ERA/3.77 xFIP. He had a 30.4% K% and a 6.1% BB%. Those are all fairly good numbers, but they're just not Kenley Jansen numbers. He's still worth picking up in all formats since the Dodgers will win plenty of games and he'll get plenty of saves, but his name may still be outperforming his game in some drafts, so be careful not to take him too early.

The Dodgers added to their bullpen by inking Blake Treinen to a one-year deal, but it's Pedro Baez who will likely return to the eighth inning, at least to start the year. Baez was thoroughly unexciting but solid in 2019, posting 25 holds and a 3.10 ERA/4.82 xFIP. There are clear signs of regression based on a quick look, but Baez has soundly outperformed his xFIP in all but one of his big league seasons. He's solid enough for deeper holds leagues, but not a must-own. Treinen, meanwhile, had one of the best relief seasons of all time in 2018 (0.78 ERA!) but took a giant's step back in 2019. His 2019 ERA was 4.91 (5.01 xFIP) and he saved just 16 games for Oakland before watching Liam Hendriks take over and run away with the job. If Treinen can return to form, he should challenge Baez for eighth inning work and could even push Jansen if he struggles. For now, he's a wild card with nice upside but a clear floor.

San Diego Padres

The 72-win San Diego Padres from 2019 are being picked by many to be legitimate Wild Card contenders in 2020. The bullpen isn't the only reason for that, but it's certainly a big reason. The Padres should have the best and deepest bullpen in the NL West and maybe in the entire National League. It'll be anchored by Kirby Yates, who is coming off an amazing season in which he saved 41-of-44 games and posted a 1.19 ERA/2.25 xFIP. His rate stats were amazing as well, with a 41.6 K% compared to a 5.4% BB%. Yates is the best closer in the National League and at this point, it's not really close. He should be the first closer taken off most draft boards, although there's always the risk of overdrafting. Remember: he's still a "just a closer".

Yates will be set up by another elite right hander, Emilio Pagan. Pagan was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays recently, and while it was a massive blow to his personal fantasy value, it's an enormous boost to an already strong bullpen. Last season, Pagan saved 20 games and put up a 2.31 ERA/3.15 xFIP. He struck out 36.0% of the batters he faced while walking just 4.9%. He'll be one of the best assets in holds leagues and has the clear path to the ninth inning if Yates were to miss any time. Pagan-Yates is easily the best 8-9 (innings) combo in the National League. But wait, there's more! Drew Pomeranz and Andres Munoz are also in the San Diego bullpen. Pomeranz found new life in the bullpen in 2019, posting a 1.88 ERA/1.67 xFIP with 47.2 K% and 7.6 BB% as a reliever. He'll work exclusively out of the bullpen in 2020 and should be one of the better lefties in the National League. Andres Munoz throws 103 mph and looked unhittable in many of his 23 big league innings in 2019.

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants bullpen is the most up-in-the-air bullpen in the National League West and one of the lest certain in terms of roles in all of baseball. Will Smith led the Giants with 34 saves last season, but he's a member of the Atlanta Braves now. Sam Dyson and Shaun Anderson were tied for second with...TWO saves each. Dyson is still a free agent and could be in trouble with Major League Baseball due to a domestic violence incident. Anderson is being looked at as a starter heading into Spring Training. That leaves some sort of mix of Tony Watson, Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, and Tyler Rogers likely taking the important late innings in 2020.

Watson is the favorite for closing duties for now mostly due to his experience. He hasn't saved a game since 2017, but he's been a solid, if low-upside reliever since 2012. His "veteran presence" will likely give him the role or at least a large chunk of a committee approach. He ended last season with a 4.17 ERA/4.89 xFIP and just 17.8 K%. He may end up picking up a decent enough number of saves, but he won't contribute in any other standard fantasy category. He's one of the last relievers on draft boards. Tyler Rogers had some decent numbers but will likely be used in situational...situations. Reyes Moronta should take the ninth inning outright once he returns from the injured list sometime in the second half of the season.

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