2018 Standard Rankings Analysis (June) - Tight Ends

It is a great time for tight ends in the NFL and in fantasy football!

Tight ends are going to be all the rage for fantasy football owners in 2018, just like open-concept layouts and barn doors are the rage for people buying new houses. Fantasy owners can choose from grizzled veterans who have been around forever and up-and-comers on the verge of breaking out for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.

Our preseason rankings at RotoBaller will continue to shift as training camp news breaks, but for now here is our look at the top tight ends in standard fantasy leagues heading into the 2018 campaign.

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Tight End Rankings - Standard Leagues

Tier 1

Gronkowski avoided any catastrophic injuries last season (only missed two games, not bad for him) and ended up leading all tight ends with 1,084 receiving yards, the fourth 1,000-yard year of his storied career. He also finished in the top five among tight ends in receptions (69) and touchdown catches (eight). There has been offseason chatter about Gronk retiring and taking his talents to Hollywood, but for now it still seems his biggest problem is his penchant for getting injured. Gronkowski is undoubtedly the top tight end in fantasy football when 100 percent healthy, but he has the highest risk/reward ratio of anyone at the position.

Kelce has been the model of consistency (four straight seasons of at least 860 receiving yards) and durability (one missed game over that span) since he entered the NFL. Fantasy owners wish he would score more touchdowns, though, as he has only averaged 5.5 per season, which is low considering he is always among the tight end leaders in receptions and yards. New starting signal caller Patrick Mahomes is the wild card for Kelce this season. Kelce and Alex Smith had a great chemistry together which helped Kelce become so successful. Will Kelce and Mahomes share a similar chemistry, or will Mahomes have trouble getting the ball to his top tight end? Look for Kelce’s numbers to be close to what they usually are, but a little lower due to Mahomes.

Ertz had the solid season many fantasy pundits including yours truly predicted he would have in 2017 as he caught 74 passes for 824 yards and a career-high eight touchdowns. He could have had 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns if he did not miss two contests. Philadelphia franchise quarterback Carson Wentz loves getting the ball Ertz whether it is between the 20-yard-lines or in the end zone. If Ertz can suit up for all 16 games, 2018 could be his best season yet.

Tier 2

2017 was a lost season for Olsen due to a foot injury that hampered him the whole year and limited him to just seven ineffective games. He had not missed a game in nine years prior to that, so hopefully last season was an anomaly and not a precursor for what’s to come now that Olson is in his 30s. Carolina has not exactly upgraded its below-average receiving corps this offseason (Torrey Smith?) so Olsen remains Cam Newton’s top target heading into the 2018 campaign and should be good for 900-1,000 yards and six scores provided his foot does not act up again.

When Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and virtually every other Giants receiver suffered season-ending injuries, it left Engram as Eli Manning’s one and only decent target for the bulk of the year. The Ole Miss product finished with a team-high 115 targets and accounted for 64 receptions for 722 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns. Engram will be hard-pressed to be targeted as often this upcoming season, and he needs to get over his terrible case of drop-itis that caused many pinpoint passes to slip through his fingers towards the end of his rookie year. He is too talented to suffer too much of a sophomore slump, though.

Rudolph scored 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons with Case Keenum and Sam Bradford as his quarterbacks, so the logic would be that he should do as well and possibly better with Kirk Cousins as his QB in 2018. Marcus Mariota’s best buddy Walker has now posted four straight seasons of at least 60 receptions and 800 receiving yards and is not showing any signs of slowing down even though he is probably on the downside of his career. If you want a steady, sturdy veteran who you can bank on for 800 yards, Walker is your guy.

Graham had one of the strangest seasons of any tight end in 2017. While he led all players at the position with 10 touchdown receptions, including a span where he hauled nine in over 10 games, Graham had the lowest yards-per-catch average of his career (9.1) and put up his fewest receiving yards (520) since his rookie season all the way back in 2003. Knee injuries and entering his 30s have seemingly sapped the speed out of Graham’s legs, but he can still make plays in the red zone. Aaron Rodgers has not had a decent pass-catching tight end to throw to at Lambeau Field in a long, long time. Rodgers and Graham hooking up for 750 yards and 10 touchdowns is more of a certainty than a stretch.

Tier 3

Jordan Reed is a top-3 tight end talent when he plays as evidenced by the 952 yards and 11 touchdowns he racked up during the 2015 campaign. But he is NEVER healthy. He has missed 28 games over the past five seasons, so he is harder to trust than a corrupt politician. Burton could be a breakout star after filling in admirably for a concussed Ertz for a few games with the Super Bowl champ Eagles last season. He is a smallish tight end with above-average speed who could be in for big things if Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky makes the same second-year jump Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and Los Angeles’ Jared Goff made in 2017. Eifert caught 18 touchdown tosses in 21 games between 2015-16 but is just as injury-prone as Reed is and is a humongous fantasy risk.

Doyle proved last season that he does not Andrew Luck throwing to him to be a decent weekly fantasy play. He ranked second among tight ends with 80 receptions. Doyle is more valuable in PPR leagues since his yardage and touchdown totals are average, and he is no help in distance leagues that offer bonuses for longer touchdowns (no 30-yard catches in five seasons), but if Luck returns and is as good as he was before his shoulder surgeries Doyle could see an uptick in fantasy value.

Tier 4

Kittle could be the breakout star at the position. With Jimmy Garoppolo manning the offense late last season, Kittle had 11 catches for 194 yards over his final three games. If Kittle is not the breakout TE of 2018, it might be Njoku. Cleveland's former first-rounder is loaded with potential and will undoubtedly do better in his second season if Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield steadies the quarterbacking Njoku gets. Brate and Howard undermine each other's fantasy value by being tight end teammates.

Tier 5

Eric Ebron never clicked in Detroit with Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense. Could things be better for him in a new uniform and with a healthy Andrew Luck throwing to him? Jack Doyle will probably stunt his fantasy worth even if Ebron does improve. Cook needs a compass to find the end zone -- 19 touchdowns in nine seasons.  Hooper doubled his 2016 numbers in 2017 in several categories, yet many fantasy pundits were disappointed that he was not more effective fantasy-wise. Maybe a third year of seasoning will do the trick for him.

Tier 6

Vernon Davis keeps on trucking at age 87 (actually 34) and is a good tight end handcuff for the oft-injured Jordan Reed if your fantasy roster has room for him. McDonald was a bust in 2017, yet he is one of the few tight ends who can break off a 50-yard touchdown and he is part of an explosive offense, so he could be the perfect late-round sleeper pick, especially in deep leagues.

Updated Tiered Rankings and Analysis