X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Eric Hosmer Rankings Debate - Comparing RotoBaller's Rankers

We continue our long-running series of articles debating fantasy rankings with a player that has ignited a good amount of debate over the last few months within our rankers.

RotoBaller's expert writers have come up with our consensus rankings for mixed leagues, but that doesn't mean we agreed on everything. In this space, we'll hear from rankers with the biggest differences of opinion on a well-known player and have them defend their position against each other.

Today, the topic is newly-signed first baseman Eric Hosmer. While both Nick and Bill are lower on Hosmer than other rankers, Nick is convinced he's still a top-100 player while Bill has dropped him outside his top 125. Let's get ready to rumble!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

2018 Draft Rankings Debate - Eric Hosmer

Ranking Tier Player Position Kyle Nick Pierre Jeff Harris Bill Composite
76 6 Eric Hosmer 1B 68 93 74 54 66 127 80.333

 

Nick Mariano's Ranking: #93 overall

An Apple a Day

While first base isn’t a terribly taxing position, durability is still an asset and Hosmer has it. He’s notched between 667-671 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He’s played in at least 150 games in five of his last six seasons, and we really can’t count his 2011 rookie campaign against him, can we? You might be surprised to learn that only 12 first-baggers topped 600 PAs in 2017, and only six eclipsed the 650 mark. It may not be the glitziest of production, but in this day and age where it feels like all available bench spots are utilized as triage for pitchers being skipped in the rotation with a boo-boo, Hosmer is an anchor.

Quiet Production

While he no longer steals double-digit bags like he did between 2011-13, the 28-year-old is still good for 5-7 swipes. He was one of just nine first-base eligible players to steal more than five bases last year, and that includes guys like Chase Headley, who you’re not playing there anyway. Hosmer’s sprint speed of 27.5 ft/sec (per Statcast), fourth-best for a 1B in ‘17, backs up the results. We know that speed is at a premium right now -- just look at where Dee Gordon is going -- but guys like Hosmer quietly allow you to not freak out about getting a burner who weighs down your other categories. And while I hate bringing up counting stats at all, let alone for a guy switching teams, it’s nice to see his R+RBI tallies of 191, 184 and 192 in the past three seasons.

But That Average is Sure to Fall!

Well, I agree! Once again, I’m the second-lowest on Hosmer here, but just because he’s unlikely to hit .318 again doesn’t mean he’s going to drop back down to .266 (2016’s mark). In ‘17, Hosmer’s overall 89.5 MPH average exit velocity was 50th out of hitters with at least 50 batted balls. And yes, his notorious ground-ball profile shows here. His line-drive/fly-ball AEV of 94.2 MPH was 80th, while his 87.4 MPH mark on grounders was 15th. If you consistently scorch grounders, they’re more likely to find holes. He doesn’t need a .351 BABIP again just to be a .300 hitter. Slipping from around .320 to ~.300 isn’t going to take him out of the top-100.

Now This is Padresing

Like I said, I don’t think there’s a big difference between SD and KC. Mentioning the Padres seems to elicit a knee-jerk “ew” reaction when it comes to fantasy appeal, but Wil Myers and Manuel Margot might outproduce the 2018 Royals by themselves. That was mean to Whit Merrifield, I’m sorry. While I can’t ignore that the Pads did finish dead last in runs scored last season (604), adding Hosmer helps and those youngsters are a year older. Also, Petco and Kauffman play pretty similarly for left-handed batters, and while I’d never pay up to match 2017’s numbers, he could certainly put up a 75-25-80-6-.300 line. Even rocking a fly-ball rate south of 25 percent in each of his last three campaigns, his actual batted-ball skills are capable of floating a HR/FB rate around 20 percent. I’m not happily taking Hosmer, but I’m not burying him either. All bets are off if pitchers just feed him sliders though, he’s batted below .200 against them in the last three years. He seems to make it work anyway.

 

Bill Dubiel's Ranking: #127 overall

Just an Average Average 

Eric Hosmer had a fantastic 2017, hitting .318 on his way to a Silver Slugger award. But how replicable is a batting average like that? Hosmer has always had a plus hit-tool, but before last season Hosmer averaged a .278 BA over the previous three seasons. That's what I feel safe expecting this year, not the ~.300 that Nick projects above. Why would things change so significantly from last season? In 2018 he may not have a .351 BABIP buoying his average. Hosmer was remarkably lucky last year, and it's certainly not something you can count on happening again when you're sitting in the draft room.

Petco Woes

Kaufmann Stadium is by no means a prolific hitter's park--it ranked 22nd in runs and 27th in homers in 2017. However, Petco Park is noticeably worse for offense, and that has to be factored in when projecting Hosmer. Petco is 29th in runs and 29th in homers. Petco is certainly friendlier to lefties than it is to righties, but barely. I'm afraid it's impossible to expect 25 homers again in 2018 with Hosmer moving to the cavernous Petco.

Why Draft Hosmer When You Could Have _____?

Per FantasyPros, Hosmer's current ADP sits at 75 overall, which places him ahead of a number of first basemen with MUCH higher upside. Within the first 100 picks, I'm looking for guys who can take me to a championship, not merely a guy who "won't hurt" my team, and that's what Hosmer is at his core. Nick preaches about his consistency, but consistency is synonymous with mediocrity in Hosmer's case.

Why not wait on first base, and instead wind up with a guy like Ian Desmond, who is a virtual lock for 15 homers (if not more at Coors) and 20 steals in addition to a legitimate batting average? Or maybe hunt for the next big thing and draft Matt Olson, who hit 24 home runs in just 59 games with the Athletics in 2017. Why not Matt Carpenter, who should at least match Hosmer's counting stats and is going in the 11th-13th rounds right now? There's no way I would be wasting top-100 draft capital on Hosmer when I can wait literally another 40-50 picks and get the exact same (if not better) numbers.

 

More 2018 MLB Ranking Debate Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Stefon Diggs

Likely to Begin Camp Working on the Side
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Xavier Legette

Should be More Productive
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Cole Bishop

has Good Shot to Win a Starting Job
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Nate Wiggins

Ravens Think Nate Wiggins has Star Potential
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Kel'el Ware

Collects 21 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Cam Spencer

Contract Being Restructured
Drew Timme

Scores 30 Points in Summer League Loss to Wizards
Quinshon Judkins

More Details Emerge on Quinshon Judkins' Arrest
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Alexandre Sarr

Logs Impressive Outing in Summer League Action on Sunday
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Kaden Elliss

Could be Atlanta's Most Impactful Pass-Rusher
Kyle Filipowski

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss to Warriors
Darius Robinson

Ready to Make his Mark in 2025?
Jauan Jennings

Expected to Report for Training Camp
Trey Smith

the Only Player Still on the Franchise Tag
Cody Williams

Collects 22 Points in Summer League Loss on Sunday
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Jauan Jennings

Seeking New Deal or Trade From 49ers
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF