July 25, 2017

Jason Katz profiles Seattle Seahawks running back (RB) C.J. Prosise as a fantasy football sleeper for 2017. He could be a draft value according to current ADP.

Before profiling C.J. Prosise as a fantasy football sleeper for 2017, it is important to note that I'm approaching this from a PPR position. CJ Prosise is far less valuable in standard leagues. In standard leagues, I just wouldn't draft any Seattle running back. In PPR leagues, Prosise is the guy I want not just between the Seattle backs, but in general.

Before we get into why, let's get some information on what he costs. Prosise's ADP is currently 8.10, the RB38. He falls somewhere between Eddie Lacy at 7.03, RB32 and Thomas Rawls, 11.05, RB48. Prosise is a little undervalued while Lacy is incredibly overvalued. I know the seventh round isn't particularly high, but Lacy has a reputation for not working hard, being fat and slow, and is coming off a season where even in a contract year, he couldn't find it in himself to stay in shape. People will point to Lacy's 5.1 yards per carry and argue he was his old self when he was healthy. He wasn't - rewatch the film. The Packers offensive line would open up gaping holes and sometimes Lacy would run through them. He still looked slow. The fact that he ranked fourth in yards after contact per touch is because it's admittedly a little difficult to bring down someone that big once he has a head of steam. I wish him the best of luck behind Seattle's 32nd-ranked offensive line.

Thomas Rawls flashed talent in 2015 when he averaged 5.6 yards per carry, but hasn't been able to stay on the field. I still like him more than Lacy because he's a better running back, but right now, he's third on the depth chart and has significant injury concerns. Now let's talk about Prosise's outlook for 2017 and what makes him the most appealing draft value of all these backs.

The Price Is Right

I already mentioned Seattle's league-worst offensive line that didn't see any upgrades this offseason. While this is bad for the other two, it's good for Prosise because he already has a clear role as the team's receiving and passing down back. Prosise's catch rate was 89.5%, good for tops in the league. Although it's in a limited sample size, Prosise also led the league with 8.1 yards per touch last season. Obviously had he stayed healthy and seen increased volume, that number would prove to be unsustainable. However, the fact that he was able to reach that level of efficiency, even in limited playing time, establishes that C.J. Prosise is good at football.

Realistically, Prosise would need to average about 12.0 ppg to reach RB2 production. If Prosise handles 80 carries, catches 60 passes, and scores six touchdowns, he would likely end up a little behind the RB2/3 border. That's assuming both Lacy and Rawls stay healthy. What if Lacy eats his way out of the league and Rawls gets hurt again? What if Prosise flat out dominates in his touches and commands more work? What if Prosise ends up playing 60% of the snaps? 1,000 all purpose yards and 80 receptions is not out of reach. Assuming he scores at least a few touchdowns, that all but guarantees he returns RB2 value or better. Not bad for a player you can take at the end of the eighth round as your RB3 or RB4.

In the interest of fairness, Prosise isn't just 100% upside with no risks. The three-way timeshare is obviously less than ideal. Plus, Prosise has injury concerns of his own, having only played in six games last year. It's all about the cost/benefit analysis. Who are you passing on in order to draft Prosise and how likely is it that you are passing on a player that can severely outproduce his ADP? Of the running backs being drafted around the same time as Prosise, I definitely like Samaje Perine more in standard leagues and I can see the argument for Jonathan Stewart as he is a far safer pick, but he clearly lacks the upside of Prosise. I'm not counting Jamaal Charles because there's no way his ADP stays where it is at 9.01. He will either skyrocket after we see him play because he looks fine or he will be cut by the Broncos and probably retire because he's done. No middle ground on that prediction. Prosise is a talented player that presents an opportunity for a significant return on investment. He comes with risk, but that risk is minimized by his current price tag. Keep Prosise on your board and be ready to fire in the eighth round.

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