RADIO
Despite a Strong Second Half in 2014, Carlos Carrasco Isn't Worth Drafting in 2015
It's a safe bet that few, if any, players have been analyzed as much as Carlos Carrasco in the last six months. That tends to happen when a pitcher who was banished to the bullpen early in the season suddenly morphs into a right-handed Clayton Kershaw. How did this happen? And more importantly, will it happen again?
If you caught our SP rankings, you know that the RotoBaller staff is split on that question. Two writers ranked Carrasco 39th, while lead MLB editor Brad Johnson is in full command of the bandwagon, his #5 ranking ahead of such luminaries as Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner.
I arrived at my decision (#17) based mainly on the expectation that Carrasco will be good in 2015. Quite good, in fact. But I can't quite see him being the dragon slayer he was down the stretch. Of course, he doesn't need to pitch at that level to be worth owning; even if he's just a top-40 arm, that's worth rostering. Whether it's worth paying for is another issue.
Every indicator is good. Carrasco piled up strikeouts while obliterating his walk rate. He kept the ball down and in the yard. Both the underlying stats and the scouting support these strides. His velocity is up, his slider has gone from average to unhittable, and his pitch selection has improved. The talent was always there for the former top prospect, and something clearly clicked in his age-27 season.
But I can pretty much guarantee that I won't own Carrasco this year. Here's why.
For one, I expect his price to be fairly outrageous. Carrasco's incredible 10-start run in August and September probably swung thousands of teams' fortunes. Performances like that simply aren't forgotten, whether you were the lucky party or got the short end of the stick as a result. Draft cost rises accordingly. If you nabbed him for peanuts in a keeper league, enjoy the cost control, but most owners will have to shell out for Carrasco this time around.
Secondly, the Indians' defensive issues can't be ignored. Granted, they probably won't be quite as much of a train wreck as last season, but they still project pretty poorly as things currently stand. Carrasco succeeded in 2014 in spite of the guys behind him, but the odds of doing that again for 200-plus innings aren't in his favor.
That brings me to my other major reservation: Workload. Carrasco's never thrown 200 innings in a season. His closest effort was 2010, when three-quarters of his 195 innings were tossed in the minors. His totals over the subsequent four seasons: 128, 0, 118, 134. That goose egg was a result of Tommy John surgery, and his heavy use of that slider is cause for at least some concern. Steamer projects only 163 innings next year, which hurts his value.
In Summary
Carrasco looks like the real deal, and keeper or dynasty owners who hold his rights will most likely be laughing all the way to the bank. But there are enough potential pitfalls and red flags that owners in redraft leagues may be better off shying away from his inflated price tag.
