RADIO
The first event of the calendar year is behind us and Collin Morikawa is in absolute control heading into the back nine as I sit here typing away. So far, he has yet to make a bogey through 3.5 rounds of golf. An utter masterclass of precise ball striking and a resurgent putter that is gaining more strokes than his tee-to-green game, which is tough to do as one of the best iron players in the world. Is his putter back or is this an outlier performance at a venue he has not finished worse than T7, losing -0.03 on the greens in those 12 rounds? We shall see what happens as the year unfolds.
>>record scratch<< Collin then went on to have a complete meltdown ... The Sony Open is next on our calendar and this article is going to provide a unique preview of what we can expect by asking 10 questions. These questions will guide us through a multitude of areas that impact how we go about handicapping an event. We look at historical odds of winners, traditional weather, skills that matter, and a few more interesting things. The goal of this article is to provide you with a high-level understanding of the nuances associated with this week's course and players.
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#1 Dogs or Dimes?
Were the odds of the last few winners closer to a dime or were the underdogs sniffing around the top of the leaderboard?
The odds of the last three winners were a mixed bag with Hideki at 18-1, while Smith and Na were in the 60s.
A combination of favorites and long shots have sniffed around the top of the board over the last three years.
Finishing positions of the golfers with the shortest odds to win.
#2 History or Mystery?
Is course history a strong predictor of success or is this week going to be a mystery?
Waialae Country Club course history is one of the strongest predictors of success of all courses on tour.
These are the golfers with the best average strokes gained (min six rounds):
These are the golfers with the worst average strokes gained (min six rounds):
#3 Birdies or Bogeys?
What kind of scoring conditions can we expect this week?
The top-five golfers at Waialae Country Club have averaged 4.22 strokes under par per round, which my model considers easy scoring conditions. There are a few KFT graduates in the field and these strokes gained include some KFT events in order to get a feel for the capabilities of these players. As the year goes on, it should stabilize these metrics, but remember the KFT courses are easier.
The best strokes gained average on easy courses:
The worst strokes gained average on easy courses:
#4 Weak or Peak?
Is the strength of the field at its peak or is it weak?
The total Official World Golf Ranking points total for this week's 144-man field: 138.72 Last week's total OWGR in a 39-man field of elites: 133.28. The field lacks big names, with no golfers inside the top-10 and only four golfers inside the top-20, which may be why we have seen a fair share of winners at 60-1 in the past. Below are the highest-ranked golfers and their respective power rankings in my model.
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#5 AM or PM?
What is the weather usually like at this event?
Last year, it looked like the wind never really got much stronger than 10 miles per hour. Unless the weather is different this year (I checked back a few years to make sure 2022 wasn't an outlier), there won't be too much weather to monitor if I'm looking to find a wave advantage.
#6 Distance or Direction?
Is distance or direction the most important stat off the tee?
Waialae CC is statistically more favorable to those that are accurate off the tee.
The most accurate golfers in the field:
#7 Wedges or Woods?
Which proximity buckets are going to see the most divots this week?
We can expect about 68% of approaches to come from 125-200.
These golfers gained the most strokes per shot from 125-200 yards over the last year:
#8 Sand or Grandstand?
Are errant approach shots going to land up in the sand or grandstands?
Looking at the course map, there are roughly 50 bunkers around the green, making bunker play an important aspect of the short game this week.
Who struggles out of the bunker?
#9 Bermuda or Bent?
Are we putting on Bermuda or Bentgrass?
These are the best putters on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds:
The wort putters on Bermuda over the last 50:
#10 Model or Maniac
Are there golfers who the model is not liking as much as the Maniac?
Below are the top-10 golfers in my model:
These are a few golfers who the Maniac likes, who the model overlooked a little.
Hopefully, this helped you prepare for the odds dropping tomorrow morning! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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