RADIO
The wide receiver position is typically more consistent on a year-to-year basis than the running back position, yet this season is off to a bit of an odd start. There have been a surprising number of bounce-backs like Keenan Allen and Larry Fitzgerald, while presumed studs Calvin Johnson and Mike Evans have turned out to be inconsistent. The latter is why we've broken wide receivers off into their own Warning Signals piece.
Generally speaking, I tend to be a lot more patient with receivers than I am with running backs given the endless discrepancies at each position. Still, you're going to notice that the players I list going forward are ones that I've taken a hard stance on one way or the other. For some, I'm standing firm in trying to wait it out while other players have me exclaiming "mission abort!"
Lastly, I'll still be revisiting players that have made past editions of the list, but I'm going to institute a "three strikes and you're out" rule going forward. Basically, if you make the list three times, you're dead to me for the year. Obviously an injury or a trade warrants an exception, but overall I think limiting it to three appearances is the right way to go so we can keep it fresh.
Wide Receivers Sending Out Warning Signals
Calvin Johnson – WR, DET
If Kam Chancellor doesn't punch the ball out of Calvin Johnson's hands at the goal line, Megatron likely escapes making this week's list. Hell, if the referees don't blow that batted ball call and Calvin finds the end zone on the next play, he's still probably safe. But alas, here we are with another mediocre week from the man with a Decepticon nickname.
There's really been two different narratives regarding the Detroit offense thus far. The first is that quarterback Matthew Stafford has been banged-up since the start of the season, greatly hindering the team's passing attack. The second is that even when this offense does get moving, Stafford isn't looking Calvin's way as often as he has in years prior. I think both things are true here; Stafford still isn't fully healthy and the Lions are trying to utilize a more balanced attack. I'm still fairly confident that better days are ahead for Calvin Johnson but I do think it's time to lower expectations.
If Detroit is so obsessed with trying to spread the ball around while force-feeding their running backs to below-average rushing totals, then obviously Calvin's numbers are going to decline. Throw in a nicked-up QB and you're looking at a scenario where you're stuck with an under-performing second-round wide receiver. As a Calvin Johnson owner myself I'm still crossing my fingers that things turn around, but I'll admit I'm worried. If you've been able to weather the storm to a decent record through four weeks, hang in there on Calvin barring a great trade offer.
Disclaimer: I know this is Calvin's third week on this list but given the funky circumstances and the tough matchup with Seattle in Week 4, I'm going to make an exception. Things likely aren't going to get easier next week against Arizona, so we'll revisit Megatron's performance in two weeks' time.
Mike Evans – WR, TB
Here's the part where I try to talk you off the ledge. Over the last two games, Mike Evans has 25 targets compared to 21 for that of his teammate Vincent Jackson. Jackson is coming off of a massive 147-yard day, but rewind to the week before and Evans had a 101-yard showing of his own. The usage can and will end up matching the production on a more consistent basis. I know beginning the year with an injury followed by a big fat zero isn't the way you want to jump-start your fantasy season, but now that Evans is fully healthy he's going to start improving. Both Evans and Jackson are big wide receivers who can reel in touchdowns at will, so it's only a matter of time before Jameis Winston is able to get them both involved with some consistency.
The Buccaneers host a mediocre Jacksonville defense in Week 5 so look for Evans to rebound rather quickly. After that, the team heads to Washington to face an even worse secondary followed up by a trip to Atlanta in a game in which they will almost certainly have to throw. Chill out if you're a Mike Evans owner; it's going to get much, much better and it's going to happen a lot sooner than you might think.
Brandin Cooks – WR, NO
Now that I've (hopefully) calmed you down on Mike Evans, let's head to the complete opposite end of the spectrum and talk about Brandin Cooks once again. Last week I had said that Cooks was either the perfect buy-low candidate or a total bust. One week later with a returning Drew Brees and it's looking like the latter is more accurate.
Cooks had another lackluster showing against the Cowboys on Sunday night, grabbing just four balls for 25 yards. The expectation all off-season was that Cooks would be a PPR stud who would put up excellent numbers that would elevate his fantasy value even in standard scoring. Now that it's clear that his PPR prowess is diminishing, there isn't really any reason to continue holding out hope for the guy.
With players like Willie Snead, C.J. Spiller and even Mark Ingram becoming more involved in the passing game, it's looking like the Saints are going to be spreading the ball around more than usual this year. It's a real shame given this team's historically high-powered offense, but those days are now over. I highly doubt you're still able to get anything of decent value for Cooks, so unless he breaks out against the Philadelphia Eagles this week your best bet is to just leave him on your bench and wait for a miracle after Week 5.
Jordan Matthews – WR, PHI
The last wide receiver worth discussing this week is Jordan Matthews of the Philadelphia Eagles. Realistically I could talk about how the entire Philly offense is sending out "warning signals", but Matthews has been the more surprising disappointment over the last two weeks. After boasting two impressive outings in Weeks 1 and 2, Matthews has totaled only nine receptions for 99 yards in the following two games combined. Let's face it, the Eagles offense just hasn't turned out to be the juggernaut we all expected it to be. Even with that in mind, I'm not hitting the panic button on Matthews just yet.
This is a team that likes to utilize a balanced offense, yet they can't really seem to find any sort of consistent ground game. With quarterback Sam Bradford starting to right the ship through the air, I think we're going to see a return to form for Matthews in the coming weeks. I actually think Matthews could turn out to be a solid buy-low target this week for those in need of a wide receiver. This isn't so much of a "warning signal" as it is a "it's on my radar but I'm not abandoning ship just yet". It's a situation to monitor in the coming weeks.
Updates From Previous Weeks
T.Y. Hilton – WR, IND
The lone wide receiver worth revisiting is T.Y. Hilton of the Indianapolis Colts. The thing is, Andrew Luck missed last week's game with a shoulder injury, so we kind of have to chalk up Week 4 as a lost outing. Luck may not be ready for Week 5, so we may have to wait to see if he and Hilton can rekindle the magic they had together last year. If you're looking for some added reassurance on Hilton, consider the fact that through the first five weeks of 2014 he only had one 100+ yard game with zero touchdowns. There's still plenty of time for him and Luck to turn it around.
