Infielders Ready to Break Out Late
Finding value is crucial on draft day and finding just one or two players later in drafts that provide better numbers than projected can give you a significant edge on the competition as you bid for fantasy glory. All too often, we look for the new shiny object in drafts thinking they’ll come up to... Read More
ADP Champ or Chump: Seth Lugo
Using a reliever to improve your fantasy squad's ratios has become a trendy strategy, but this author doesn't really get the hype. Sure, it's great if you correctly identify which middle reliever will suddenly morph into a strikeout stud with a microscopic ERA, but it seems like the kind of strategy that requires hindsight to... Read More
2020 Rookie Breakouts - September Surgers
Prior to the 2020 rule change that limits September rosters to just 28 players, it was the time of the year where there would be a lot of rookies making their debuts, getting their feet wet, and experiencing Major League pitching for the first time. Whatever you may have thought about this rule, it was... Read More
Does James Paxton's Spin-Rate Adjustment Matter?
Players frequently enter spring training in, "the best shape of their lives," but offseason programs rarely seem to pay significant dividends. The extended offseason may have provided some players with the opportunity to make unusually significant adjustments this year, though. One example of such an adjustment is Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton, who recently announced that... Read More
Stock Your Dynasty Farm: AL West Sleeper Prospects
If you've been following my series on sleeper prospects, you probably correctly noted that there are actually more than the four divisions I've already written about. Who knew?! No worries Rotoballers, a six-week gap isn't enough to keep me from tucking my tail firmly between my legs and returning to finish what we started. I... Read More
ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Underachievers with SIERA (Part 2)
Welcome back RotoBallers to my Lie Detector mini-series (you can read part one here). Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin... Read More
Major League Baseball 2020 Mock Draft
The 2020 MLB amateur draft takes place later tonight and it will be unlike any draft we’ve seen. With owners crying poor and minor league systems set to be permanently compressed, the draft has been slashed from the normal 40 rounds to just five — although teams will be able to sign undrafted players as... Read More
Point League Busts - Players to Fade
Points leagues can be a whole different ball game from your average roto leagues. When prepping for a points league, whether you're looking at ADP or online rankings, you're likely looking at data that is skewed by standard roto leagues. While it's good as a general starting point, some players simply perform better in one... Read More
Los Angeles Angels: Top 10 Dynasty Prospects
The Los Angeles Angels will be our next stop on the farm to evaluate the best prospects on each MLB team. Once the 2020 MLB season begins, it may turn out that Minor League systems will be more important than usual. Franchises are losing money during the pandemic layoff, so many teams will be looking... Read More
Diving Into Pitch Counts For a Shortened Season
Pitchers who produce a ton of innings are a rare commodity in today’s game, with those who consistently put up 200 or more innings becoming increasingly valuable. However, with a potential shortened 2020 season and no innings limits, will this playing field be leveled? At first thought, one might think that pitchers with assumed limits... Read More
How to Approach MLB Rookies in 2020 Re-draft Leagues
While the players and owners continue to trade demands for getting the 2020 season on its feet, we're going to turn our attention to fantasy. This article will specifically look at players who have yet to make their major league debut (or come up for more than the proverbial cup of coffee) and how fantasy... Read More
Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: More Insights From an MLB Scout
The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with more takes from a longtime Major League scout. Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others... Read More
Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers - Head-Scratching Trends?
Welcome to Part Two of the ADP Risers and Fallers series, where I will examine key changes from March to the present day. If you missed Part One, where I evaluated injured players and prospects, you can read it right here. Those were the easy risers and fallers. In this article, we will delve into... Read More
Eliminating Park Factors: Hitters That Will Suffer Most
While optimism continues to grow surrounding the likelihood we will have baseball in 2020, there are still a few hurdles to clear, and plenty of unknowns regarding the parameters. While the universal DH seems like a near-certainty at this point, other important factors- like how many games will be played and where they will take... Read More
Overvalued and Undervalued Starting Pitchers
Spring training is often the time when players start climbing up or freefalling down draft boards. This year, however, without a full spring training to draw from, there is less talk of a pitcher with a new and improved change-up, and fewer managers blowing smoke, influencing fantasy owners. Nevertheless, there is still plenty of value... Read More
ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Overachievers With SIERA (Part 2)
Welcome back RotoBallers to my Lie Detector mini-series (you can read part one here). Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin... Read More
2020 Starting Pitcher Breakouts - National League
Fantasy baseball players spent much of this unique offseason speculating about the game they love. When is baseball coming back? What rule changes will be implemented and how will they affect the fantasy production of players selected in preseason drafts? Some of you may have drafted a bunch of teams this past winter and might... Read More
ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 ERA Underachievers With SIERA
Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA, albeit in a different manner. Although technically a backward-looking evaluator, SIERA... Read More
How to Approach High Stakes Leagues in 2020, Part 2
While we await confirmation that there will be a season, and clarity on how it will play out, there's plenty of fantasy baseball prep work to do. Sure, it's impossible to nail down definite strategies or exact player values with so much uncertainty surrounding the season. But we can at least start to figure out... Read More
Hidden Gems to Watch - 2020 Pitching Prospects
As we continue through this window of uncertainty, the chances of having a “normal” season are getting far less likely. And while we still don’t have any concrete solutions for having a 2020 season, some ideas seem to be more likely than others. Whether implementing regular doubleheaders in a truncated season or a universal designated-hitter,... Read More
Eliminating Park Factors: Which Hitters Will Benefit Most
As Major League Baseball seeks a way to open the season in early July, one proposal has teams starting or playing the entire season in warm-weather locations (Arizona and Florida) or hub cities. That leaves fantasy managers to re-evaluate hitters whose parks impact their performance and value. For hitters, it’s primarily a matter of considering... Read More
Mock Draft Review: ADP Risers and Fallers
It's Memorial Day weekend, which means it's time to pick some flowers, fire up the BBQ, and do fantasy baseball mock drafts. Well, one of those things doesn't quite belong, but in these uncertain times, it's never a bad idea to do another draft and see how things stand. With MLB owners and the Player's... Read More
ERA Lie Detector: Finding 2019 Overachievers With SIERA (Part 1)
Skills-Interactive ERA (or SIERA) has been around since 2011 when it was introduced at Baseball Prospectus by Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman before moving to its current home at Fangraphs. Much like xFIP, SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA, albeit in a different manner. Although technically a backward-looking evaluator, SIERA... Read More
Later-Round WHIP Warriors
Every season, fantasy owners across head-to-head leagues are faced with a tough decision on draft day. Do they load up on crummy starting pitchers at the end of the draft to amass wins and strikeouts? Or do they opt to only roster good starters and spend late-round draft picks on relievers to help with ERA... Read More
Hitters Ready To Break Out Late
Depending on the chosen method of understanding performance declines by age, MLB hitters generally start to decline sometime between the time they turn 28 and 30. Nevertheless, some players can have their best seasons after what is typically a hitter’s peak years. Since many of these hitters have had underwhelming careers before their breakout seasons,... Read More
Deeper Draft Sleepers - Shortstop
In shallow or even standard fantasy baseball leagues, there is a common tenet that the end of drafts is for taking chances. Since there is normally not much difference between a player that gets selected at the end of a draft and a player who is left for waivers, taking a large, figurative swing on... Read More
Three Hitters Ready to Breakout Earlier Than Their Prime
The quickest path to a fantasy championship is to identify and select potential breakouts. The challenge with this approach is that usually such players are hyped to the point where their ADP becomes inflated. This increases their risk, because often their new ADP has an assumed breakout baked into the cost. This is why it’s... Read More
How to Approach High-Stakes Leagues in 2020 (Part 1)
While it's not clear which of the proposed scenarios will be ultimately be used, there is hope that games will eventually be played in 2020. We may not know what the season will look like but drafts are still taking place, including those hosted on the gold standard of high-stakes competition, the National Fantasy Baseball... Read More
Third Basemen Likely to Return a Loss in 2020
So far we've covered some possible players to avoid at both 1B and 2B, so now we'll finish up by looking at 3B. Just as a refresher, my goal is these articles is to point out players who I believe won't match the value necessary for their current ADP. We frequently want to label these players... Read More