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2015 Early-Round Draft Strategy For Fantasy Football

In most fantasy football leagues, your draft position is going to be either entirely random or dependent on where you finished in the previous year. It’s essential to have a game plan no matter where you’re drafting from, because a good draft strategy can put you in a position to win your league from Day 1.

Here I’ll examine strategies for three different draft position ranges—the first third, the middle third, and the latter third. For the sake of this article, we’ll discuss a 12-team league format.

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Drafting From the First Third

This year, having a pick in the first third of the draft isn’t all that stressful. The top four should be Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Le'Veon Bell, and Adrian Peterson, and you shouldn’t be upset regardless of which you get—all could be the RB1 in 2015. While it’s nice starting your draft off with a complete stud, it can be tough watching all of the talent coming off the board in the first two rounds before you get to pick again. However, I actually like having an earlier pick this year, because there should still be some great talent at the turn at the end of the 2nd round.

One of my hard rules is to wait on quarterbacks, and if you’re drafting in the third round you should definitely stick to that game plan. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are the only two QBs I’d consider in the second round, but you’ll still probably be looking at premium talent at the skill positions. I’d take a look at someone like A.J. Green, Jeremy Hill, Randall Cobb, or Alshon Jeffery instead of a quarterback. You’ll be able to get two players of that caliber at the turn, and should be in great shape after three rounds.

 

Drafting From the Middle Third

Picking in the middle of the first round is typically any fantasy footballer’s nightmare—you don’t get one of the top studs at the beginning of the draft, and you don’t get to enjoy loading up with two players at the turn. That position is particularly torturous this year, as there are major question marks surrounding the mid-round talent. Marshawn Lynch is getting up there in age, Matt Forte may be losing receptions, and Rob Gronkowski will likely have to play four games without Tom Brady. I personally prefer the safety of a high-volume wide receiver like Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, or Demaryius Thomas (in that order). These players come with much less risk attached than running backs like DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy, and act as better building blocks for your roster. There will be plenty of other viable running back options in the later rounds.

Having said that, I’ll make an argument here for taking two wide receivers in the first two rounds. Let’s say you take Antonio Brown with the 6th pick. Assuming current ADPs hold, you’ll be looking at the likes of Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson when you’re up again. These types of receivers are useful in either format (standard or PPR) because their production is based on touchdowns and yardage. Once you’ve got your wide receivers locked down, you can worry about running back. In Round 3 you’ll likely have players like Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, Alfred Morris and Justin Forsett on the table.

 

Drafting From the Latter Third

This is my preferred position to draft from. The turn at the end of Round 1 is flush with top-level talent, and you’ll have your choice of guys like C.J. Anderson, the aforementioned DeMarco Murray, Gronk, or perhaps Aaron Rodgers. I still advise waiting on a quarterback, but if you snag a stud skill player in the first and then the (in my opinion) unquestioned best QB in the NFL with your second pick, you’ll still be sitting pretty.

With your third and fourth picks, you have to shore up whichever skill position you didn’t focus on in the first two rounds. Let’s say you went with C.J. Anderson and DeMarco Murray—you have to take at least one wide receiver in Rounds 3 and 4. DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews all have WR1 potential, so if you can take one or two of them here then you’re going to be in great shape. If you’ve waited on a quarterback this long, keep waiting. Load up at the skill positions and aim for Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill or Matthew Stafford at some point in the 7th round or later.

 

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