X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Zach Greinke's Astronomical Fantasy Value

Starting pitcher Zack Greinke was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Astros at the trade deadline. Nicklaus Gaut examines the fantasy baseball implications of this move in redraft and dynasty for 2019.

Nothing is ever completely quiet at the deadline, only often boring. But this year it was eerily silent on the day of the new hard trade deadline as only minor tremors shook the market. Sure, the typical moves were made that make fans shrug, as their teams shored up the back of their rotations, bullpens, and bench.  But what everyone really wanted to know was about the BIG move that almost everyone expected was coming. Where would Noah Syndergaard be traded?

Nowhere, it turns out, as the deadline came and passed without the Mets moving either Syndergaard or Zach Wheeler (who also seemed a lock to be traded). Instead, the best kind of big trade happened. The one no one sees coming because the only people who knew about it were the principles involved and they weren't talking.

Having moved on from Thor, the Astros dropped their own hammer as news broke that they had acquired Zack Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks, thus changing the narratives of the trade deadline and the rest of the season, as well as making themselves the seemingly prohibitive World Series favorite, all in one fell swoop.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Coming Back to America(n)

The American League, that is, as Zack Greinke comes back to the AL after spending almost nine years on the Senior Circuit. Besides the obvious (states, teammates, how chili should be made), what is changing for the 35-year old as he now finds himself on a World Series contender?

Home Park

With the move, Greinke goes from Chase Field to Minute Maid Park, where the Astros will play 29 of their remaining 52 games. Since the introduction of a humidor system in 2018, Chase Field has been reduced from a hitter's paradise to a more subdued hitter's park, with "only" a 103 Park Factor in 2018, reduced from their previous three-year average of 108. Houston, on the other hand, is a sneaky pitcher's park whose 94 Park Factor over the previous three seasons is tied for the third-lowest in baseball.

Greinke: Advantage

Division/Remaining Schedule

Arizona has an unbalanced schedule remaining, with 32 of their remaining 53 games coming at home. While the humidor has reduced the hitter-friendly nature of Chase Field, its 2018 Park Factor was still tied for the league's 10th-highest. Outside the less than friendly home-confines of Chase, Arizona has 21 remaining road games, nine of which come in Cincinnati (third-highest Park Factor in 2018), Milwaukee (15th), and Colorado (as in, Coors).

Arizona also has four games remaining against the World Series contending Los Angeles Dodgers, as well as four against the Mets, who apparently fancy themselves a contender. On the other hand, the Astros end their season on the virtual cupcake-trail, playing 30 of their final 52 games against the non-contending Royals, Mariners, Blue Jays, Tigers, White Sox, Angels, and Rangers.

Greinke: Advantage

Run Support/Bullpen

It probably doesn't need to be explained that Greinke now has much better hitters playing with him on the division-leading Astros, than he did on the Diamondbacks. But while Greinke's 5.07 runs-per-game of support puts him squarely in the middle of pitchers making at least 15 starts, the true devil is in the details, as Greinke failed to pick up a win eight times after giving up three runs or fewer, with five of those outings being two runs or less. And like an exclamation point on his Diamondbacks career, Greinke ended his Arizona tenure by giving up only five runs in his final three starts while collecting zero wins.

But if Greinke is going to snatch more wins down the fantasy homestretch, his biggest advantage may lie in his new bullpen, as the Diamondback's pen was merely average, sitting squarely in the middle of the league in most important metrics. In contrast, Houston bullpen has the league's 4th-best ERA as well as the lowest xFIP in baseball.

Greinke: Advantage

 

Fantasy Dreaming

All that is well and good but how does that affect Greinke in regard to what's really important? As in, your fantasy team. How does the trade change his value for the rest of the season in redraft leagues? What about for dynasty players?

The Here and Now (Redraft)

Greinke's stuff hasn't changed and it's probably not going to change in the next two months. He was a must-start pitcher with Arizona and he's still a must-start with Houston. In a vacuum, Greinke's fantasy stat-line has the best chance of improving in the wins column, for all the reasons laid out previously. But given the easier schedule, the friendly home park, no Coors, etc...it's not unreasonable to expect bumps in his ratios as well. So if you already have Greinke and plan on keeping him around, then the move to Houston will likely provide a moderate upgrade to his fantasy earnings.

But should you keep him? If contending with Greinke as the lynchpin of your pitching staff, then yes; you should probably hold on unless overwhelmed by an offer. But if Greinke is your number two or three? It might be time to do some dealing as the fantasy trade deadline approaching, with Greinke's value unlikely to ever be higher as everyone is awash and flush with the hype that comes with such a big trade. Selling off Greinke to an owner dreaming of Houston's pitching magic could go a long way towards patching any roster holes you may have as we enter the dog days of the fantasy season.

The Future, Conan? (Dynasty 2019 and Beyond)

While selling high on Greinke may be the best strategy in redrafts, as taking advantage of the margins that lie in inflated markets is one of the keys to fantasy success, targeting him in dynasty may be a better course. Because just as everyone knows that Tinker Bell and all the other residents of Pixie Hollow have a magic tree that makes them pixie dust, everyone knows Tal's Hill was removed from Minute Maid Park only because that's where GM Jeff Luhnow decided to hide the tree that makes the Astros' magic pitching dust.

The Houston-Effect (copyright-pending) is what you'd be betting on if you decide to trade for Greinke in dynasty. And why not? Every year, half the fantasy world decides that this is the year that Greinke will stop getting away with his ever-diminishing velocity and stop being a top-20 pitcher. And yet, he persists. Unless he starts throwing 85 mph (which is certainly on the table), the year-long Houston Astros version of Greinke is unlikely to suddenly fall off a cliff with his skills and regress himself out of the top-40.

Is the 35-year old guaranteed to be in the top-20 again in 2020? Of course not. But if you can acquire him closer to the cost of the average aging pitcher with velocity problems, instead of the statistical metronome that Greinke's been, sign yourself up.

 

Best Bets

In the end, the most likely outcome is that Greinke is about the same pitcher that he was in Arizona but now with more wins. So if you hold on to him this year, you're unlikely to be disappointed. But remember that it's the savvy fantasy GM who doesn't always stay static with the safe plays but instead watches for that bloated market and stays brave when the time to pounce arrives.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF