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Hey there RotoBallers! In this article, I will be taking a look at some of my favorite Yahoo DFS lineups picks for the NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Round slate. These DFS picks are based on a multitude of factors including matchup, talent, recent performance, Vegas odds, and pricing on Yahoo.
The Divisional Round brings us a small slate with just two games. In the AFC, we have the Jaguars visiting the Patriots, while on the NFC side, we have the Vikings traveling to Philadelphia to battle the Eagles. Of the games, we have the Jaguars-Patriots tilt projected to be high-scoring with a 46.5 point over/under and the Vikings-Eagles game expected to be more of a defensive game with a 38.0-point over/under.
Of the four games, the Patriots have the highest implied team total at 27.75 points while the Eagle have the lowest at 17.25 points. On to the picks!
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Quarterback Picks for Yahoo DFS
Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. JAX, $40
None of the four quarterbacks playing this weekend has a particularly enticing matchup as each of the four defenses remaining has done a good job of limiting opposing signal callers. With that being the case, Brady will remain the top quarterback play on the board from a pure projected points standpoint. Sure, the Jacksonville defense has been excellent this season but they have started to show some cracks of late, most recently allowing Ben Roethlisberger to shred them for 469 passing yards and five touchdowns last week in their playoff matchup. The Patriots have the highest implied team total on the board and the best offense of any of the four teams playing, making Brady a solid choice for all game formats this weekend. For what it's worth, I am also tempted to roll out some lineups with Blake Bortles, who we can expect the Patriots to force to throw often.
Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings @ PHI, $27
As mentioned above, none of the quarterbacks have a plus matchup in this week's Conference Championship round. That makes Keenum a solid choice at the position for those who either can't afford to fit Tom Brady or are looking to pivot off of the New England quarterback. The Eagles have played excellent defense against the pass this season but Minnesota has too many weapons for Philadelphia to keep them from moving the ball. The Vikings, as a team, have the second-highest implied point total on the slate, with a mark set at 20.75 points.
Running Back Picks for Yahoo DFS
Dion Lewis, New England Patriots vs. JAX, $28
Lewis has been incredible for the Patriots since Rex Burkhead injured himself during Week 15. Of course, Burkhead is expected to return to action this weekend when the Patriots take on Jacksonville. While that throws a shroud of uncertainty over New England's running back usage, Lewis has simply been too good for the Patriots to go away from now. The Patriots are known for scheming and adjusting their offense to take advantage of their opponent's weakness. While the Jaguars are formidable against opposing wide receivers, they have struggled some against the run, ranking 26th in DVOA in that department in the regular season. Don't be surprised if New England comes out with a run-heavy approach against Jacksonville this weekend. For what it's worth, I also like Burkhead in his return and have no problem using both New England running backs in Yahoo lineups on this small slate.
Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles vs. MIN, $17
Ajayi is starting to see his workload tick up, most likely a result of Philadelphia attempting to limit the passing attempts made by backup quarterback Nick Foles. Ajayi has also had plenty of time to assimilate himself into the Philadelphia offense after being acquired from the Dolphins at the trade deadline. Last week, Ajayi led all Eagles runners with 15 carries while adding three catches for 44 yards. The Vikings are tough against the run, but if you are looking for a running back who doesn't play for the Patriots, Ajayi should be on your radar, especially at his cheap price.
Wide Receiver Picks for Yahoo DFS
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings @ PHI, $23
Diggs is sure to be highly owned, partially because of the small slate and partially because recency bias will cause his ownership levels to go up after his exciting walkoff touchdown against the Saints in the Divisional Round. Despite all that, Diggs shapes up as one of the top wide receiver plays on the slate. The Vikings receivers draw one of the few favorable matchups for the position on the slate as the Eagles allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this past season. That makes both Diggs and Adam Thielen solid options for this weekend. Diggs gets the nod here because he has more touchdown upside than Thielen and because he's $5 cheaper on Yahoo.
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars @ NE, $14
The Jacksonville pass catchers draw a plus matchup against a New England defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on Yahoo this past season and finished ranked 21st in DVOA. We know the New England defensive coaches will scheme to shut down Leonard Fournette and the running game in hopes to force the Jaguars to throw often, which is something they have tried to avoid this season. Westbrook and Marqise Lee are both on the radar as solid plays with Westbrook a better bet because of his game-breaking speed and big play ability. He's also $2 cheaper than Lee.
Tight End Picks for Yahoo DFS
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots vs. JAX, $34
Gronkowski is far and away the top tight end play, although you will feel it in your wallet if you opt to roster him. It is possible to stack Gronk and Tom Brady, however, thanks to the values at the wide receiver position. While the Jaguars have locked down opposing wide receivers for much of the season, they have been a bit more vulnerable to the tight end, finishing the season ranked 20th in DVOA against the position. They are also fresh off of a Divisional Round playoff game which saw them cough up 10 catches for 112 yards to Steelers tight end Vance McDonald.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings @ PHI, $17
The tight ends playing in the Conference Championship will all have their work cut out for them as the remaining defenses have been pretty solid against the position. That goes for the Eagles, who limited opposing tight ends to the 15th-fewest fantasy points per game. That being said, Rudolph is an outstanding red zone target who already has one touchdown in the playoffs and should figure prominently in the Vikings' red zone plans again this week.
Defense/Special Teams Pick for Yahoo DFS
Minnesota Vikings @ PHI, $11
The Vikings will be on the road in this matchup, but that's really the only strike against them in this Conference Championship round. Minnesota's defense is one of the best in the league and heads to Philadelphia as 3.5-point road favorites against an Eagles team with just a 17.25-point implied team total. This is a fantastic price for a great defense in a prime spot this Sunday evening.
