RADIO
If you're reading this article, there's a good chance you've advanced to the fantasy finals in your league. Great job making it this far, but there are still lineup decisions to be made. If you're in the finals you probably have a good team, so your best bet may be to start the WRs who got you there. You can't go wrong with starting receivers who have been productive all year. If they fail in Week 16, it's unfortunate, but process is more important than result.
D.K. Metcalf might score fewer than five fantasy points this week. Darnell Mooney might score more than 20. Starting Metcalf over Mooney will still always be the right move regardless of the outcome. This final article can help with borderline decisions and deeper leagues.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in many cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 16
click image for full-size view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will take on the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta's defense is fresh off a second-half collapse at the hands of Tom Brady, and it won't get any easier against Mahomes. Tyreek Hill is the best WR play of the week. Sammy Watkins is hard to trust, but he could be a championship game hero. The same goes for Mecole Hardman.
Mike Evans and Antonio Brown get the Lions' terrible outside corners this Sunday. Expect Tom Brady to target them both early and often.
Jalen Hurts is arguably a top-5 play at QB this week against Dallas due to rushing upside, but his receivers will likely have some success as well. Jalen Reagor is a better play than Alshon Jeffrey but both are in good spots.
Minnesota's rookie corners have improved, but Tre'Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders can still take advantage of their inexperience at home with Drew Brees. The Vikings are better against slots, so Sanders is a better play than Smith.
Rashard Higgins, Michael Gallup, and Darnell Mooney are three borderline options in good spots. All of them get enough snaps to be viable depending on your other options.
Finally, the best slot matchups this week include Kendrick Bourne vs Arizona, Hunter Renfrow vs Miami, and Keenan Allen vs Denver. Hopefully, Allen plays more snaps this week.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
Calvin Ridley has been an elite fantasy WR this week, and his QB will probably need to attempt 40-plus passes against the Chiefs. His matchup is bad, but volume and talent take precedent. Julio Jones, on the other hand, might be tougher to trust in this spot. If he's healthy enough to play, he's a risky start.
Round two of D.K. Metcalf vs Jalen Ramsey should be fun. Metcalf was shut down by Ramsey the last time these two teams met, as Seattle's whole offense sputtered. The Rams Defense somehow struggled with the Jets last week, so a Metcalf bounce-back is absolutely possible. Still, the Rams have been the toughest matchup for opposing WRs all year. Tyler Lockett is also in a tough spot against slot corner Troy Hill. Russ hasn't cooked in a while, and I'm not sure he will this week either.
Stefon Diggs is the third pointless WR1 mention in the avoid section of this article. Yes, he has a tough matchup. Yes, you should still start him.
The Jaire Alexander experience has not been a fun one for opposing RWRs this year. Corey Davis plays more on the right side, so I expect him to see more of Alexander. If the Packers choose to shadow A.J. Brown instead, targets and production would be impacted. I think Alexander will stay on Davis, but we won't know until Sunday night.
Two Panthers WRs get downgrades this week, with Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel projected to deal with the toughest matchups on the Washington defense.
Christian Kirk, Jerry Jeudy, Darius Slayton, and Laviska Shenault Jr. have been disappointing fantasy players this year. All four have tough matchups and probably shouldn't be started this week.
Finally, two slots in difficult matchups are K.J. Hamler and Keelan Cole Sr. Hopefully, you didn't have to consider them anyway.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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