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Andrew analyzes key fantasy football WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find the top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 3 (2023).
Week 3 is here, and I'm excited to update the depth charts and stats for the completely free fantasy football WR/CB Matchup Chart. During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.
Weeks 1 and 2 gave us a lot of new information to work with, as the chart will have updated alignment homes and the PPGA (points per game against) column filled with Week 1 and 2 points. Keep in mind that the sample is obviously extremely small, with just two weeks of 2023 data.
As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.
The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 3
Click the image for a full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
The Colts have been one of the easiest matchups for opposing WR groups so far this season. The Ravens move their WRs all around the formation, and Zay Flowers has been the top target-earner so far. Flowers played more LWR last week than in Week 1, but part of that may have been due to Odell Beckham Jr. leaving the game with an injury. I expect at least one of Flowers, Beckham, or Rashod Bateman to have a big day.
Davante Adams is dealing with an injury situation, but if he does play gets the Steelers secondary, which has been exploitable so far this season. Patrick Peterson isn't the same player.
RCB Jamel Dean has regressed for the Bucs, and A.J. Brown typically plays more LWR than RWR for the Eagles. Brown gets a plus matchup, but DeVonta Smith will also likely see over 20 snaps at LWR.
Nico Collins has been terrific through two weeks as C.J. Stroud's WR1. He has another good spot in Week 3 against a subpar Jaguars pass defense.
Tyreek Hill is Tyreek Hill and while the Broncos have one of the best CBs in the NFL in Patrick Surtain II, they aren't stout opposite him. Expect either Hill or Jaylen Waddle (if he plays) to exploit that easy matchup.
Brandon Staley's defense has underachieved and his three starting corners are all playing poorly so far this season. The Chargers defense has thus far been the worst unit in the league against opposing WR2s. Jordan Addison is in a great spot.
The Giants came to life in the second half last week, and this week get a 49ers secondary that was just shredded by Puka Nacua. Darius Slayton gets the best matchup based on alignment tendencies, but any Giants WR could pop off.
Three big-time WRs who play the slot have boom weeks well within their range of outcomes based on matchup. Keep an eye on Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is dealing with an injury, but does have a plus matchup against the Falcons. CeeDee Lamb and Christian Kirk also get boosts.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Calvin Ridley put up a dud against Kansas City in Week 2, and this week will take on a Houston secondary that has been solid against opposing outside WRs this season. Steven Nelson is an underrated player.
The aforementioned Chiefs have been stout against outside receivers through two weeks. It's not a great spot for D.J. Moore or Chase Claypool.
The Saints defense has been stingy dating back to last season, and Marshon Lattimore is one of the best corners in the NFL. Packers outside receivers get a downgrade. That includes Christian Watson if he plays, and Romeo Doubs.
Dallas has been a nightmare on defense so far this year, and have one of the best CB duos in the NFL. All Cardinals WRs get a downgrade in an ugly spot.
Kendrick Bourne had a big Week 1 but cooled down against the Dolphins in Week 2. This week, he'll have to deal with Sauce Gardner.
The Bills defense has been solid through two weeks, especially against slots. Curtis Samuel gets a downgrade.
Thanks for reading all season and good luck this week.
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