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WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 18

DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Welcome to the first ever Week 18 edition of the WR/CB Matchup Chart.  Congratulations to everyone who won their league. If this series helped you this season, shout us out on Twitter @draft32teams. If you're reading this article to help you in a Week 18 final, consider changing your league settings so that your championship is in Week 17 instead next season. Between covid and teams resting starters, this week will likely be somewhat of a mess. Make sure to pay attention to news this weekend.

Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.

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WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.

 

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 18

Click image for full-screen view

 

WR/CB Matchups to Target

In a depressing edition of "too little too late," Russell Wilson and the Seahawks finally got it going last week against the Lions. I expect strong production to continue this week against an undermanned Cardinals CB group. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are in good spots.

On the other side of that game, the Seahawks have huge question marks at their CB2 spot. It's good news for A.J. Green.

The Saints still have a shot at the playoffs, and Marquez Callaway has had his moments as their top WR without Michael Thomas. He has an enticing matchup this week against the Falcons, who funnel production to LWR and slot. Callaway plays both of those spots.

Diontae Johnson is on the Covid list, but if he does play has an easy matchup. If Johnson is out, Chase Claypool should see an uptick in targets, and also has an easy projected matchup against the reeling Ravens secondary. James Washington becomes interesting as well if Johnson is out.

Van Jefferson has been hit-or-miss since Robert Woods went down, but this week has an easy matchup against Josh Norman and the 49ers. Cooper Kupp is not exclusively a slot, so he should see Norman as well.

Nico Collins has an easy matchup against Jackrabbit Jenkins and the Titans this week. Brandin Cooks should see plenty of Kristian Fulton, which would open things up for Collins and Chris Conley.

Davante Adams would have an easy matchup, but it remains to be seen how much he'll actually play with the Packers already having clinched home field. Allen Lazard gets the highlight as he should see the most slot snaps against A.J. Parker. I don't expect Lazard to be rested, but stay tuned for news about Green Bay's plans.

The Vikings have been disappointing on defense for two years in a row and have nothing to play for this week. Darnell Mooney is in a great spot.

 

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

Trevon Diggs is drawing a lot of criticism for his play, and there are certain advanced metrics that show he's given up a lot of yards this season. However, the Cowboys simply haven't given up that many fantasy points to opposing WR1s, and Trevon Diggs has definitely contributed to that. DeVonta Smith has a tough matchup.

Tyreek Hill has been relatively quiet recently and this week takes on standout rookie Patrick Surtain II and the Broncos. Hill always has blow-up potential but this is a tough spot.

A.J. Brown didn't do much in a great spot last week and this week has to deal with the underrated Desmond King. The Titans are playing for homefield, but Brown's matchup isn't easy.

Xavier Rhodes and the Colts have done a terrific job limiting opposing LWR production this season. Rhodes injured his hamstring last week and is considered day-to-day, but if he doesn't play the drop-off wouldn't be that significant. Isaiah Rodgers and Rock Ya-Sin have both been solid this season. It's a tough matchup for Marvin Jones Jr. regardless.

Terry McLaurin has been a huge disappointment this year, and this week has a tough matchup against Adoree Jackson. He's tough to trust at this point.

Russell Gage will have to deal with Marshon Lattimore this week. The Saints have given up the fourth-fewest FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.

Amari Cooper and Dak Prescott have not been on the same page for most of this season. This week, Cooper and CeeDee Lamb will take on the toughest outside CB duo in the league in Steven Nelson and Darius Slay. When Michael Gallup is out, Cedrick Wilson typically plays the slot and Lamb kicks outside for the majority of snaps.

Xavien Howard has returned to top form after a rough start to the season. He presents a tough matchup for Kendrick Bourne this week.

Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson get downgrades this week against the Bucs tough outside corners. Tampa typically funnels production to opposing slots.

Braxton Berrios was a hero last week and should command a healthy target share this week as well. Unfortunately, his matchup isn't as enticing as it was last week. The Bills give up the fewest FPPG to opposing slots. Berrios is still a fine play due to projected volume.

The team that gives up the second-fewest FPPG to opposing slots is the Chargers. Chris Harris Jr. is still elite, which gives Hunter Renfrow a tough matchup. Don't bench or fade Renfrow, just understand his matchup isn't easy.

On the other side of that game, Keenan Allen will face off against Nate Hobbs, who has been sensational as the Raiders' slot corner. The standout rookie has given up the fourth-fewest FPPG to opposing slots.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.



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