WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 16

December 24, 2022

Andrew analyzes key fantasy football WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 16 (2022).

Welcome to Week 16 of the WR/CB Matchup chart. The chart typically becomes more predictive as the season goes on, and many of the predictions made in this article the past two weeks turned out to be correct. Keep in mind that late season trend can impact matchups as non-contending teams look toward player evaluation and draft slot. Weather is also important, which is reflected in lower Vegas totals in late-season games. Another huge factor in WR/CB Matchups is health, as injured CB groups can be taken advantage of.

As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquil Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.

Keep in mind that NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. For example, in Week 1, A.J. Brown played 27 snaps in the slot and 21 snaps at LWR. However, Quez Watkins played more snaps in the slot and no Eagles' WR played more snaps at LWR than Brown, which explains the chart.

The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 16

Click the image for a full-screen view

WR/CB Matchups to Target

Davante Adams was limited by Bill Belichick and the Patriots last week. This week he is in a dream matchup against the Steelers, who have given up the most FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. Mack Hollins also gets an upgrade.

The Bears have been shredded by opposing WR1s the past few weeks. Stefon Diggs is in a smash spot. Gabriel Davis also gets a bump.

While Jaycee Horn is a good player, the Panthers simply don't have any other good cover men at CB. Horn could be tasked with following Amon-Ra St. Brown, which would open up easy matchups for D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams.

D.J. Moore has an easy matchup against the Lions. Moore plays primarily outside, but his handful of snaps from the slot will give him a big advantage this week. Detroit gives up the most FPPG to opposing slots in the league.

The Vikings' pass defense has been leaky all year, which gives all Giants WRs an upgrade. Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Richie James aren't the most appealing options but may be viable depending on league size or DFS tournament size.

The Titans have been an easy matchup all year, but the Texans' WR situation is filled with question marks. If Nico Collins and/or Brandin Cooks play, they'd be tough to trust but do have good matchups. Chris Moore didn't do much last week, but he'd be the obvious beneficiary if Collins and/or Cooks missed the game.

The Cowboys have been torched by opposing WR2s all year. It's great news for DeVonta Smith, but keep in mind that he may be catching passes from Gardner Minshew rather than Jalen Hurts.

The Buccaneers rotated four WRs last week, and typically move their guys all over the formation. It's tough to pinpoint exactly who will see the easiest snap-by-snap matchup, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a ceiling game from Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, or Russell Gage.

Make sure to check the injury status of the Colts' slot corner Kenny Moore. Without Moore, the Colts have been susceptible to slot production. If he doesn't play, it's a clear upgrade for Keenan Allen.

Finally, K.J. Osborn, CeeDee Lamb, and Curtis Samuel have favorable matchups as the primary slot WR on their respective teams.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

A.J. Brown is obviously a must-start, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Gardner Minshew favor his No. 1 wideout. However, the data shows that Dallas is typically way better against WR1s than WR2s.

Zay Jones was brilliant last week, but Thursday night might be his turn to get lost in the Sauce. The Jets have been dominant against opposing WR groups all year.

Kenny Pickett will likely be back for the Steelers, but the Raiders have been a tough matchup for opposing WRs all year. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson get downgrades.

The 49ers have arguably the best defense in the NFL, and they have been particularly stout against opposing outside WRs in recent weeks. It's not a great spot for Terry McLaurin or Jahan Dotson.

Matchups usually don't matter for Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, but the Packers have been solid against opposing WR groups all year. If one of them has a dud, the matchup was likely a factor.

Noah Brown has seen his target share trend upward in recent weeks. Unfortunately, he'll see a lot of Darius Slay on Saturday, which gives him a downgrade.

The Broncos defense has been a tough matchup all year, which isn't good news for fringe WR plays on the Rams. Hopefully, no one was considering Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, or Tutu Atwell anyway.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

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