WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Conference Championship

January 29, 2023

Andrew analyzes key fantasy football WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find the top wide receivers to target or avoid in the Conference Championship (2023).

Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of WR/CB Matchup chart. Most season-long fantasy leagues are over, but there are still plenty of opportunities to play other types of contests in the playoffs. Conference Championship games are extremely important in most fantasy playoff formats and drafts. This article can help you identify advantageous matchups and make decisions accordingly.

As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.

Keep in mind that NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. For example, in Week 1, A.J. Brown played 27 snaps in the slot and 21 snaps at LWR. However, Quez Watkins played more snaps in the slot and no Eagles WR played more snaps at LWR than Brown, which explains the chart.

The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Conference Championship Games

Click the image for a full-screen view

WR/CB Matchups to Target

Late-season trends are just as important as full-season data, and while the 49ers' defense has been great overall, they have recently struggled to stop WR1s. CeeDee Lamb popped off for a big game last week, and although he's listed as a primary slot, a lot of his production came on the outside. It's a great spot for A.J. Brown.

The 49ers have also been victimized by slot receivers all year. Quez Watkins is listed as the primary slot on the chart, but he doesn't play that many more snaps inside than Brown, DeVonta Smith, or Dallas Goedert. The Eagles' top three weapons are viable and will likely be necessary for Philly to win the game. However, it wouldn't shock me to see Watkins make a big play or two.

Mecole Hardman's injury is something worth monitoring throughout the week. He returned to a limited practice Wednesday, but his status for the game is still up in the air. The Chiefs move their WRs all around the formation and their WR1 in terms of target share is actually a tight end. The Bengals have done an excellent job limiting WR1s all year, so I expect their game plan to revolve around stopping Travis Kelce. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling get upgrades, while Justin Watson and Skyy Moore are viable large-field tournament dart throws. If Hardman plays, he's a big-play possibility as well. This is a good matchup for Chiefs receivers.

On the other side of that game, the chart shows the Chiefs as an easy matchup for opposing WR1s. Early in the season, they were torched by WR1s, but since Trent McDuffie came back and Joshua Williams was benched, they've been much stouter on the outside. Ja'Marr Chase is obviously a fine play regardless of matchup, but the chart is heavily skewed by early-season results.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

The Eagles have arguably the best outside CB duo in the NFL, and it's fair to wonder how rookie Brock Purdy will perform in his first road playoff game in a tough environment. Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have low floors.

The Chiefs have been tough against primary RWRs all year. Tee Higgins gets a downgrade but is obviously a fine play due to talent and target share.

Overall, there aren't any glaring downgrades for WRs this week. These four teams have outstanding receiver rooms and will make plenty of plays on Sunday.

I'll close out with my general thoughts on this two-game slate, and the stands I'll be taking in tournaments. A.J. Brown and Quez Watkins will be my favorite plays in the NFC Championship, and I'll cycle through KC receivers depending on Mecole Hardman's health. If he's out, I'll play longshot Skyy Moore in large-field contests. On the Cincinnati side, I'll be underweight to Tee Higgins and play a decent amount of Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

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