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Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba finish as the top fantasy rookie wide receiver in 2023? What is his fantasy football outlook? Mitchell Blatt provides insight and analysis.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba was either the No. 1 or No. 2 WR on almost everyone's draft board back in April.
In his sophomore season at Ohio State, JSN caught 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns. In the 2022 Rose Bowl game, he went wild, catching 15 passes for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a thrilling 48-45 win over the University of Utah.
Expectations were set for him to dominate in 2022, but unfortunately, he was plagued by reoccurring hamstring injuries. As a result, he only played in brief portions of three games, catching just five passes for 43 yards. However, he's now healthy in 2023, so will he pick up where he left off as a college sophomore?
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Potential As A Rookie
If you were asking who is the best wide receiver in the 2023 draft class, it wouldn't be controversial to say Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He would probably be picked by a majority of observers.
But if you ask which rookie wide receiver will put up the best numbers in their rookie season, it is not as obvious that JSN is the right choice. He will need to win a starting job on a team that has one of the stronger one-two pairings in the NFL with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
There are other first-round wide receivers who have an easier route into their teams' starting lineups, as I examined in my article about rookie WR impacts on depth charts. The Vikings' Jordan Addison is practically guaranteed the WR2 role in Minnesota. Baltimore's Zay Flowers and the Chargers' Quentin Johnston both have oft-injured wide receivers ahead of them on the depth chart.
JSN does have an advantage in that he is an exceptional slot receiver who ran most of his routes from the slot in college. He is a natural fit for the position. However, that also limits his upside; he probably won't get much play on the outside as a rookie.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2023 Fantasy Outlook
Jaxon Smith-Njigba does seem to be fantasy managers' favorite to finish as the rookie WR1, but only slightly. He is being drafted as the WR38, while Jordan Addison is going as the WR41, and Zay Flowers is going as the WR50.
It certainly wouldn't be shocking if JSN beat them and all of the other rookie wideouts in production. JSN is also the favorite WR in Vegas for Offensive Rookie of the Year betting, although Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the three first-round quarterbacks all have better odds.
However, Smith-Njigba's upside is limited by the fact that he's behind Metcalf and Lockett on the depth chart. A bet on JSN is also a bet on Geno Smith maintaining his Pro Bowl-level play from a year ago. Personally, I don't think any of the rookie wide receivers will produce as well as Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave did last season.
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