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The running back position in the NFL has seen a decrease in value as time progresses, but there are still ongoing debates on whether a team should consider a ball carrier in the first round of the NFL Draft.
In last year's draft, there were no running backs taken in the first round. Breece Hall was taken at pick N0. 36 overall to the New York Jets and Ken Walker was selected by the Seahawks at No. 41 overall. However, the 2021 NFL draft saw Najee Harris and Travis Etienne go in the first round to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively.
Will there be a first-round running back in this year's 2023 class? What is the hit rate for RBs taken in round one? Let's dive in.
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University of Texas running back Bijan Robinson is expected to be taken inside the first round in April's upcoming draft. He's viewed as the best RB prospect since Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley and is seen as a "can't-miss" draft choice.
However, Elliott and Barkley were taken inside the top-five overall picks in their respective draft classes. In 2023, that's highly unlikely. Robinson's probable range to come off the board is anywhere from the mid-teens to the end of the first round. There will be several franchises who fully fade the running back position in the first round, but some teams are still willing to do so. Robinson projects as a workhorse back at the next level with elite rushing and receiving upside.
Beyond Robinson, we're unlikely to see any other running back taken with the first 31 picks. University of Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs was once mocked in the first round, but at just 199 pounds, he doesn't project as a three-down back. The likely NFL consensus is that he's a second-round prospect. UCLA ball carrier Zach Charbonnet is largely viewed as the RB3 in the class, but he's an older prospect and isn't considered to be a generational player.
Ultimately. there are still teams who will take a shot on a first-round running back, but in the era of pass-happy offenses and analytics, it takes a generational prospect to fetch that draft capital.
Hit-Rate On First-Round RBs
As shown below, there have been mixed results among first-round running backs, but predictably, they have the highest hit rates for real NFL accolades and fantasy football production. Every running back from 2015-2023 taken inside the top-15 has posted an RB1 season in fantasy. It's too early to evaluate players like Harris and Etienne, but players outside the top-15 selections haven't had as much success.
| Year | Player | Pick | Pro-Bowls | All-Pros |
| 2021 | Najee Harris | 24 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | Travis Etienne | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs | 24 | 2 | 1 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2018 | Rashaad Penny | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Sony Michel | 31 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | Leonard Fournette | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 2015 | Todd Gurley | 10 | 3 | 3 |
| 2015 | Melvin Gordon | 15 | 2 | 0 |
It's worth noting each running back from the 2015, 2016, and 2017 running back class except McCaffrey is far from a productive player in 2023 -- which is another reason teams are fading running backs with early draft capital. The longevity of the position scares teams off. That said, if Robinson is a first-round selection, his chances of hitting are high -- but don't expect a 10-plus year career from the former Texas Longhorn.
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