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Week 2 saw more than its fair share of breakout fantasy/DFS performances from up-and-coming receivers - Nico Collins, Puka Nacua, Josh Reynolds, and George Pickens all finished as top 12 receivers for the week despite having sub-$6,000 salaries on DraftKings.
DFS pricing tends to get sharper as the season progresses. This can already be felt in Week 3, with the top 10 receivers in price almost matching the top 10 in FantasyPros ECR. Which receivers will outpace their price and give you the best shot at cash and tournament game winnings this week?
Each week we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for Week 3. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.
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Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
$6,400 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel; vs. Donte Jackson and CJ Henderson
Tyler Lockett enters Week 3 as the WR26 in PPR scoring, having yet to top 59 receiving yards in either of his two games this season.
Lockett and the Seahawks have a matchup with the Panthers on Sunday, the third-easiest matchup for opposing receivers according to PFF’s Strength of Schedule metric. Carolina deploys a zone-heavy scheme, ranking top 10 in the NFL in zone coverage this year. Lockett has thrived against zone so far in 2023, scoring 89% of his fantasy points against it and commanding a 23% target share, compared to 16.7% when facing man coverage. He also leads his team in red zone targets thus far with four.
Lockett comes in slightly cheaper than teammate D.K. Metcalf this week in both DraftKings and FanDuel despite comparable projections, making the nine-year veteran the better bet in DFS.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
$6,000 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel; vs. Akayleb Evans and Byron Murphy Jr.
Mike Williams has struggled to start the season. Despite garnering 18 targets across his first two games, he has finished as WR50 and WR24 in PPR scoring.
The Chargers travel to Minneapolis in Week 3 to square off with the Vikings, who rank as the second-best matchup for opposing receivers according to PFF. Williams will likely see primarily zone coverage against Minnesota on Sunday. The 28-year-old has seen 11 of his 12 receptions and 88% of his fantasy points so far this season come against zone.
Similar to Lockett, Williams allows you to take advantage of a stellar Week 3 matchup without having to pay a premium - Williams comes $1,500 cheaper on DraftKings than his counterpart Keenan Allen this week.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
$5,500 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel; vs. Michael Davis, J.C. Jackson
Rookie Jordan Addison has been quick to show off his first-round pedigree for the Vikings this season, ranking as the WR18 after catching seven balls for 133 yards and two touchdowns to start his career.
Addison and the Vikings face off against the Los Angeles Chargers in the game with the highest total of the slate (53.5 on FanDuel as of this writing). With Addison primarily playing the Z-receiver role on the right side of the offense, he’ll likely be matching up primarily with cornerback Michael Davis who has a 29.5 PFF defensive coverage grade.
With a high-scoring matchup expected between two teams with porous secondaries, using Addison in cash or GPP is a smart way to get as much exposure to this game as possible this weekend.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
$5,400 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel; vs. Dallis Flowers
Zay Flowers has had an impressive start to his NFL career for the Ravens as the WR27 in PPR after two weeks. Look for that to continue this week against the Indianapolis Colts, the easiest matchup for opposing receivers according to PFF.
The Ravens are likely to be without WR Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 3 (ankle), however, they will have star TE Mark Andrews garnering attention down the middle of the field who returned from injury in Week 2. The Colts have been one of the zone-heaviest teams to start the season, deploying zone coverage on 91% of defensive snaps. Flowers has run more routes and caught more balls against zone than any other Ravens receiver so far in 2023. Look for that to continue in Week 3.
Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions
$4,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel; vs. A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah
Josh Reynolds finished as the WR9 in PPR in Week 2, and while his price has been over-corrected in FanDuel for Week 3, he still presents a deep discount on DraftKings.
Reynolds and the Lions receivers match up with the Falcons this week and their 12th-best WR matchup according to PFF. Detroit could lean heavier on the pass this week with RB David Montgomery likely to miss due to injury. While WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is the better floor play in DFS cash games, Reynolds is a sharp high-ceiling pivot option for managers looking for value in GPP/tournaments.
All data is from PFF. Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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