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Dan's favorite WR vs. CB matchups to exploit for Week 10 of 2024 - DFS wide receivers to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These WR/CB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.
Welcome to Week 10 WR Matchups to Target. Last week we finished with one home run pick (DraftKings points equalling 3x their salary) and two value picks (2x DraftKings salary multiplier).
Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine which wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These players are more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games.
Below are five top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS. Let's get to it.
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George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
$6,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel; vs. Benjamin St-Juste
Pickens enters Week 10 as the WR28 in PPR scoring but has the potential for more in the second half of the season, with a 17.5 expected fantasy point mark (seventh among receivers). He ranks in the top ten at the position in red zone targets, target share, and air yards.
The Steelers have a matchup with the Commanders next on the schedule, PFF’s 3rd-best matchup for receivers this week. Washington deploys zone coverage at a top-13 rate. Pickens leads the Steelers by a considerable margin in target rate and fantasy points per route run against man (24.5% and 0.47 points, respectively).
Pickens will have an excellent matchup against CB Ben St-Juste, who has a 48.9 coverage grade according to PFF. St-Juste is giving up 0.36 fantasy points per coverage route, the seventh-worst among all 96 starting cornerbacks this week.
The 23-year-old is a great bet to return value this week.
Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons
$6,500 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel; vs. Rico Payton
Mooney has been excellent for fantasy in recent weeks. He has four top-20 performances on the season and currently ranks WR12, with 68 targets for 588 receiving yards (both ninth in the NFL).
Mooney has a great matchup advantage against the Saints cornerbacks, who lost Marshon Lattimore via trade this week. The Falcons have the 11th-best receiver matchup of the week according to PFF, but may be without leading receiver Drake London, opening up more volume opportunities for Mooney. Last week when London went down, Mooney garnered nine targets for five catches, 88 yards, and one touchdown.
The Saints have played man coverage at a top-10 rate this season while allowing the second-most yards per reception in the NFL (16.4). Mooney has achieved a 26.3% target rate against man this year. Mooney is a great play in Week 10.
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Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
$6,200 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel; vs. Taron Johnson
Downs has been a stud for the Colts in recent weeks with QB Joe Flacco under center. In five games with Flacco this year Downs is averaging 9.6 targets and 77 receiving yards, compared to 5.9 targets and 51.8 yards with QB Anthony Richardson.
Downs has finished in the top 17 receivers in four of his last six games, with 9 targets in each of his last two games.
This week Downs and the Colts face off against the Bills. Downs has the fifth-best matchup grade of all receivers this week according to PFF (90.0). The Bills deploy zone coverage 73% of the time which bodes well for Downs, who holds a 32% zone coverage target rate. He also ranks sixth among 93 qualifying wideouts against zone coverage in fantasy points per route run.
Buffalo's Defense utilizes the 4th highest % of 2-high safety looks this year.
(insert 30for30 voice)... what if I told you:
Josh Downs has an astounding 40% TPRR against 2-high, the highest of ANY receiver in the NFL.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) November 7, 2024
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
$6,000 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel; vs. Kenny Moore
Shakir has outperformed his ADP this year as the Bills leading receiver. He ranks 13th in receptions and 20th in yards while leading the NFL in yards after catch. Over his last three games, he is averaging eight targets, 7.3 receptions, and 74 receiving yards.
Buffalo welcomes Indianapolis to town on Sunday. The Colts rank 28th in passing defense DVOA and 20th in fantasy points given up to receivers.
The Colts play zone coverage on 79% of snaps (top three in the NFL). Among all WRs with at least 100 routes, Shakir ranks top five in fantasy points per route run against zone while leading his team in zone coverage targets.
The Bills will also be without WR Keon Coleman. Look for Shakir to build on his recent success in Week 10.
Khalil Shakir can capitalize on Indy's zone-heavy defense
Shakir is targeted at the 3rd highest rate among WRs when facing zone coverage, which aligns well with the Colts' defensive approach that features zone coverage at the 3rd highest rate in the league. pic.twitter.com/L9plYpg3L2
— PFF BUF Bills (@PFF_Bills) November 8, 2024
Noah Brown, Washington Commanders
$4,300 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel; vs. Donte Jackson
WR Noah Brown has had double-digit fantasy points in his last two games and will look to build on that in Week 10 against the Steelers. Despite a defense that ranks ninth in total yards against, Pittsburgh ranks as the second-best matchup for opposing receivers this week according to PFF.
Brown has a great opportunity against a Steelers defense that deploys zone coverage at a top-ten rate. Noah Brown ranks inside the top 15 wide receivers (minimum of 100 routes) in fantasy points per route run versus zone coverage while achieving a 21% zone coverage target rate.
Brown is a great discount tournament pick this week.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!
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