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Quincy Milton is bullish on Breece Hall in 2024 and he takes a look into why Hall is fantasy football's league-winning running back this upcoming NFL season.
Christian McCaffrey has been the fantasy football running back darling since 2018. Except for a couple of injury-riddled seasons in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey has not finished lower than second at the position in a given season since his rookie season in 2017. McCaffrey is also wildly consistent. He only finished outside the top 10 at the position four times in 2023.
McCaffrey's dominance has been fueled by huge volume and an excellent offense now that he is in San Francisco. However, volume is what often leads running backs to suffer injuries and be less effective over time. McCaffrey is also entering his age-28 season. Running backs often hit an age cliff around this point in time.
McCaffrey showed no signs of slowing down through San Francisco's playoff run in 2023. He should still be an excellent fantasy asset in 2024. However, New York Jets running back Breece Hall is on the rise and may very well usurp McCaffrey as the top fantasy running back and perhaps, the top fantasy asset overall.
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The Fantasy Football History of Breece Hall
Hall is an explosive back who is tied to an offense that should be solid at a minimum. While it remains to be seen what version of Aaron Rodgers we will see in 2024, if he returns to his old self, then this offense has an elite upside.
Hall finished 2023 with 994 rushing yards and five touchdowns to go along with 76 receptions for 591 yards and four touchdowns. Hall was everything to an offense that suffered from poor quarterback play in 2023.
Hall was the RB2 in 2023 but he was not consistent as evidenced by his finish as the RB6 on a points-per-game basis. Hall finished as the RB21 or lower in eight games. However, Hall was the RB11 or better in every other game.
The issue in 2023 was that the Jets offensive line was terrible and defenses did not respect their ability to pass. This made running lanes impossible to come by for Hall. Hall's big play ability dragged him to 4.46 yards per carry on the season but he averaged less than three yards per carry in several games.
Hall made his living in fantasy on the back of absurd receiving volume. His 95 targets came as a result of the Jets' quarterbacks' inability to push the ball downfield. Despite the target volume likely decreasing in 2024, Hall's overall efficiency should increase and he should still see north of 50 receptions.
A big reason RB1 overall is likely for Breece Hall in 2024…
He ranked 32nd in total fantasy points from the red zone yet still finished as RB2 last year.
With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Jets offense is poised to be top 10 in 2024.pic.twitter.com/D7Y8tjCFaN
— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) August 9, 2024
The Case for Hall
McCaffrey has been such a fantasy monster because he has been so much better and more efficient than every other running back during his dominant run. On a points-per-game basis in 2023, McCaffrey averaged three more points per game than the RB2 (Kyren Williams) and over six and a half more points per game than the RB3 (Alvin Kamara). Those types of numbers are akin to Cooper Kupp's dominant runaway season in 2021.
Hall already scored nine touchdowns and rushed for almost 1,000 yards on a horrible offense in 2023. The Jets now have the No. 5 PFF-ranked offensive line in the league and a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
Even if Rodgers is not vintage Rodgers, he will surely be a significant upgrade over Zach Wilson and the other Jets quarterbacks from a season ago. The Jets also do not have a lot of high-end talent in the receiving room outside of Garrett Wilson. This team is going to need Hall to be otherworldly if they want to reach their targeted heights.
GREAT touchdown catch by Breece Hall on a pass from Aaron Rodgers 🔥🔥#Jets | 🎥 @nyjets pic.twitter.com/CPf48fwWUu
— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) August 13, 2024
With all the improvements around him, there is no reason why Hall does not have the potential to be the runaway RB1 in fantasy. He is young and an extra year removed from his ACL injury suffered during his rookie year.
Historically, players returning from an ACL tear come on a lot stronger the year after suffering the injury because they have regained all the confidence in their knee.
Frankly, there is a case for Hall to go No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts. However, if he slips past the second or third pick in the draft, then he should be an automatic selection for your team. Do not be surprised if Hall pushes for 2,000 scrimmage yards along with double-digit touchdowns in 2024.
The explosive plays are not going anywhere, but the consistently high rushing output should be present weekly in this offense.
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