When fantasy managers are on the clock, whether it’s a fast or slow draft, we have important decisions to make. Sometimes, the clock winding down can make us feel the pressure to make the correct pick. That’s especially true when there are a few different players at the same position having similar profiles.
We’re in that boat with these three quarterbacks, who provide rushing upside at somewhat reasonable prices in the middle to later rounds. Two of these quarterbacks will be heading into Year 2, with a veteran teasing us when he garners the chance because of his electric performances.
Should we fade or target these quarterbacks at their price? What are the reasons for concern or optimism? Let’s do a quick examination of these three quarterbacks with data to support our reasoning.
Nix had a breakout rookie season with 355 fantasy points, with the ninth-best expected fantasy points per game at the quarterback position. He was one of five quarterbacks in 2024 with 3,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards. That list included Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, and Nix. He might be similar to Murray, yet a slightly better passer.
Unsurprisingly, Nix’s top rookie comparisons include Murray, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, Geno Smith, and Russell Wilson. Nix had an above-average completion rate over expected and a 12.5 percent deep throw percentage. The Broncos ranked seventh in neutral game script pass rate. That’s notable because they passed in neutral situations while being one of the best defenses in the league.
For context, the Broncos’ defense ranked first in expected points (EPA) added per dropback (EPA/DB), with the fifth-lowest EPA per rush attempt in 2024. The Broncos invested in their offense by adding RJ Harvey, Evan Engram, Pat Bryant, and J.K. Dobbins. Nix has been fairly priced with room to take a step forward as a passer in Year 2.
Fields had 10 or more carries in 19 of his games played during his career. In 15 of his 19 games, Fields ranked as a QB1, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game. When Fields doesn’t garner 10 carries per game, he doesn’t have the passing efficiency to counterbalance the poor ground game.
Fields was dealing with a toe injury earlier in the year, which came in late July, but appeared in two preseason games, so the toe injury isn’t a current concern. However, any future lower-body injuries would impact his rushing ability. The Steelers benched Fields for Wilson, partly because Fields wasn’t an efficient passer. He had a mediocre 1.1 percent completion rate compared to expectations, with an adjusted completion rate of 75.2 percent.
The Steelers’ offensive line struggled to handle pressure, allowing the third-highest pressure rate, compared to the Jets at 21st. That indicates the pass blocking for the Steelers and Jets were on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Jets invested a first- and second-round pick in their offensive line, plus several depth pieces to potentially provide even better pass protection in 2025.
New Jets’ Head Coach Aaron Glenn brought over Tanner Engstrand from the Lions as their offensive coordinator. Engstrand was the passing game coordinator for the Lions, working with Ben Johnson, one of the most-coveted head coaching candidates. There’s a good chance the Jets’ offense might be more electric than in the past with an infusion of the Lions’ coaching staff.
Fields possesses QB1 upside when healthy as the starting quarterback.
Maye hasn’t given us the smash performance as a rusher besides one game in Week 9 against the Titans (8-95). He averaged 2.0 rushing expected fantasy points per game in 2024, similar to Justin Herbert (2.1), Sam Darnold (2.0), and Geno Smith (1.9). Maye arguably played on a team with one of the worst offensive environments as a rookie. That’s evident in the Patriots' ranking 28th in EPA per rush and 29th in EPA/DB.
The Patriots allowed the highest pressure rate (40.4 percent), nearly three percentage points higher than the Giants (37.6) in second. That led to the highest pass rate over expected (11.8 percent) for the Patriots, over three points above the next team, the Giants (8.1 percent). Furthermore, Maye needed to scramble for yards on the ground, with the third-highest scramble per dropback rate (10.8 percent) behind Daniels and Malik Willis.
The Patriots invested in a first- and third-round offensive lineman, with two additional veteran starters. That shows an attempt to provide better pass blocking for Maye and the offense. Plus, they invested in acquiring Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, while drafting Kyle Williams in the third round. Expect a step forward in 2025 for Maye, given the rushing floor, with the potential for improved passing efficiency, which should lead to spike weeks.
Who Should I Draft in Fantasy Football?
Nix proved himself as a rookie, and the market values him fairly with a top-5 QB season within his range of outcomes. Fields might be better in bestball leagues because of the spike week and the low floor.
Maye remains the value option as a later-round quarterback because of his rushing ability, assuming he isn’t pressured on over 40 percent of his dropbacks in 2025, making him a smash pick.
Who Should I Draft? Some common 2025 fantasy football draft decisions are regarding players like Justin Fields, Bo Nix, and Drake Maye. But not to worry, we are here to help make these decisions and build winning teams in 2025. Draft your optimal fantasy football teams for 2025. Our free Who Should I Draft? tool will help make your fantasy football draft decisions. Compare up to four NFL players, and we tell you who to draft... all free! Make the right decisions.
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