When Should I Pick Michael Penix Jr. In Rookie Drafts? Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook

May 4, 2024

Where should quarterback Michael Penix Jr. be selected in dynasty rookie drafts? Dave Ventresca discusses when dynasty player should be selecting the rookie quarterback.

The Atlanta Falcons stunned the football world when they selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It was a head-scratching selection considering Atlanta just inked quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in free agency.

Dynasty managers now have to figure out when to select Penix in rookie drafts. It looks like he will be riding the bench for a while behind Cousins, so that complicates matters quite a bit.

Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Let’s have a brief discussion on when you should be selecting the Falcons rookie quarterback.

When Should Michael Penix Jr be Selected in Rookie Drafts?

Penix is a controversial player in the dynasty community. Gamers are turned off by his age, injury history, the amount of time he spent in school, and his lack of rushing production. These are certainly fair concerns, but it’s worth noting that several teams (including the Falcons) had Penix rated as their number two quarterback in this class. He also finished 2023 as Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) eighth highest-graded collegiate passer.

🎥 #Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. with a BEAUTIFUL TD 🍿

pic.twitter.com/F7PltNFCW3

— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) October 14, 2023

Further driving down his value is the fact he’s snookered behind Cousins on the depth chart. This is not really a good reason to fade Penix as we have seen things work out incredibly well for Jordan Love when faced with a similar situation. He was forced to sit behind Aaron Rodgers for three years then burst onto the season in 2023 en route to a QB5 finish.

It’s also worth pointing out that Penix may not have to sit for the entirety of Cousins’ contract. The Packers signed Rodgers to an extension with Love still waiting in the wings. They eventually shipped Rodgers to the Jets. Cousins could follow a similar trajectory. He could also be injured at some point, or perhaps he isn’t the same player following his Achilles injury. This would open the door for Penix to play sooner than expected.

Through my 14 super flex rookie drafts so far, Penix has gone as high as 12th overall and as low as 24th overall. He has an average draft position (ADP) of 15.5 in these drafts. That equates to about pick 2.03. Players in super flex leagues should feel fine selecting Penix in this range. It’s not often you can get a quarterback with top-eight draft capital in the second round of rookie drafts.

Managers in single quarterback dynasty leagues should be able to land Penix in the third round of drafts. He's less valuable in this format but can be a nice asset to leave on your taxi squad while he develops.

The fact is, Atlanta sees Penix as their quarterback of the future. He is going to be given an extended opportunity at some point. Dynasty gamers just need to exhibit patience and realize it will be a few years before they see any return on investment.

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