March 31, 2018

The Fantasy Mechanic breaks down the early hot starts of Jose Martinez, Matt Davidson, Joe Panik and Tim Anderson and looks at whether these MLB players are potential breakouts or busts for the 2018 fantasy baseball season?

Even though it's barely 50 degrees in Brooklyn, it feels like spring is finally nigh now that the 2018 MLB season is underway. As a Yankees fan, I'd been especially looking forward to opening day ever since Giancarlo Stanton was signed. He certainly didn't disappoint when he launched an opposite field home run at 117 MPH (the hardest since 2015) that nearly broke Statcast (again).

But enough homering around here. You are certainly not reading this to hear me gush over Giancarlo's two home run game, or his 50-homer floor in 2018 (if healthy), as much as I'd love to do that for another 500 words.

There was a ton of action in baseball's first two days, and a lot of players that you should have your eye on in the early going. Some are going to fade away as quickly as they lit up the night, while others will eventually be referred to as the steal of your draft. We're going to try and identify which players are which and help you figure out who to pickup, trade for, trade away, etc. Let's get to it!

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Breakouts and Busts: Early Season Candidates

Jose Martinez - 1B/OF, STL

One game into the young season, and Jose Martinez is already proving all of his true believers right. He went 3-for-4 with a home run, two RBI and two runs, and was promptly rewarded with an endorsement by infield coach Jose Oquendo, who said "it looks like Martinez is going to be there (at first base) every day".

Coming into the 2018 season, we all knew the power was there. Martinez had a triple-slash line of .309 / .379 / .518 in 2017, hitting 14 homers and 46 RBI in just 272 at bats, Many of those at bats were seen as a pinch hitter. He mashed lefties, to the tune of an insane Giancarlo-like .847 SLG vs LHP. He faired average for a slugger against righties, with a .427 SLG split. Still, over a full season, with his rest days coming vs RHP, the total pie of stats he'll accumulate will look very tasty.  It was obvious to anyone who watched the giant 6'-7" 230-lbs slugger that Martinez could mash. What was less obvious was the playing time situation.

Martinez initially projected as a player who would see time in the outfield and at first base. But he was supposed to be competing with Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, and Dexter Fowler for outfield playing time, and with Matt Carpenter for first base playing time.  Jedd Gyorko was penciled in as the near-everyday third baseman. One game in and Gyorko is a utility infielder (hint: you can drop him in all but the deepest leagues), Carpenter is playing third base, and Martinez is the every day first baseman. Considering Martinez was the worst defensive outfielder on the Cardinals last year, it makes sense that they found a home for him at first base.  Oh, he'll also be hitting 5th most days, behind Ozuna and Carpenter.

Martinez had an average ADP of 245 on NFBC, but if we knew he had every day playing time he's the kind of player whose size, bat speed, and previous season's gaudy numbers would have vaulted him up everyone's sleeper lists. If Martinez is still available in your league (29% of CBS leagues, many more Yahoo!), hopefully you're making the add right now. If he's owned, which he should be already, then target him in a trade. With a full season of ABs, it wouldn't shock us one bit if he went .290-25-90, and that's a fairly conservative estimate. Martinez could be one of the biggest steals of the 2018 draft season.

Matt Davidson - 1B/3B, CWS

Even with 26 home runs in 443 PAs last year, and a hot Spring Training, Davidson was a total afterthought in 2018 drafts in anything but AL-only leagues. That's what happens when you hit .220 with a 37% K-rate.  Then, Davidson hit three home runs in the White Sox opening day drubbing of the Royals. Now, his ownership in CBS leagues is up to 59%! That's nearly as high as Jose Martinez!!

Let's get this out of the way right now: if you own Matt Davidson, and Jose Martinez is still available in your league, make the switch. Right. Now.

It's not that we don't love Matt Davidson's power. It's that the White Sox lineup is pretty terrible (projected 6th worse in the league per Fangraphs), so he will struggle to score runs, especially because his OBP usually sits in the mid-.200's. It's also that Davidson will struggle to hit over .230 this year (his absurd 16.3% whiff rate was the sixth highest in 2017 of all players over 400 AB). It's also that he has zero speed and will be lucky to steal more than one base.

Even with a decent improvement in his batting average, you're looking at a two-category player at best. Ride out the hot streak, if it continues for more than a game, and don't hesitate to move on afterward.

Joe Panik - 2B, SF

Let's not spend too much time here. Panik has two homers in his first two games. Exciting! What other positives has Panik exhibited? When healthy, he hits for a strong average. Annnnnd, that's about it.

When Panik is going well, he'll give you a nice, juicy empty batting average. When he's not going well, there's just nothing going on that's relevant in your fantasy league unless you're playing in a 15-team NL-only with an MI slot. The Giants have a terrible lineup. They play in a terrible ballpark. Panik has never hit more than 10 homers in a season or stolen more than five bases. How he is owned in 42% of CBS leagues is simply beyond me. I've written over 100 words on him now. This must stop.

Tim Anderson - SS, CWS

Another White Sox player who went huge in the first game of the season. Anderson did something very un-Anderson like and went yard two times in the same game to open things up on Thursday. Unlike Davidson though, Anderson has real appeal in deep 12-team leagues. He does strike out a lot (though his 26.7% rate is nowhere close to Davidson's 37%), and he never walks (13 bases on balls over 587 at bats in 2017 - how is that even possible?).

Here is what Anderson does do well though, and why his current 48% ownership in CBS should be higher than Davidson, and much much higher than Panik. 1) He runs, really fast. Anderson has shown top-flight speed in the minors with a 49 SB season in 2015. With a full MLB season under his belt, we can expect over 20 steals this year. His speed also helps him make the most of his contact evidenced by his .347 career BABIP. 2) He has decent pop for a speed-first middle infielder. His HR/FB rate averaged 13% from 2016-2017. 15 homers is totally realistic.

Also, Anderson is only 24, was a 1st round pick, and has the pedigree to take a few steps forward this year. Anderson doesn't have BA upside, or huge run / RBI potential hitting low in the ChiSox lineup, but he should be able to improve his K-rate a bit judging from his MiLB track record. If you're looking at a .265 hitter with 20 SB, 15 HR, 70 R, and 50 RBI, I'll show you many other middle infielders with a way worse line.There's one right above Anderson in this article, but somehow Anderson is only owned 6% more than Panik. Anderson is a nice little potential breakout player in 2018.

Lightning Round

Other Quick Starts I'm Buying for 2018: David Peralta, Lorenzo Cain, Gregory Polanco, Cesar Hernandez, Eduardo Nunez

Other Quick Starts I'm Selling in 2018: Nick Ahmed

More Weekly Lineup Prep