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Week 6 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews. Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 6, including betting lines and recommendations.
Week 5 brought another week of good games.
Colorado, after being down 41-14, almost made an incredible comeback against USC. LSU and Ole Miss played to a total of 104 points, the most this season between two FBS schools and the largest amount in the 112-game history of the series. These were just a few of the games worth watching on a Saturday full of fun times.
Week 6 should bring even more great games. The Red River Rivalry invades the Texas State Fair and further south, Alabama invades College Station. So, look at some of the games below and maybe make a wager or two. For the fun of course.
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns
Betting Lines: Texas -6.5(-110) O/U 60.5 O(-105)U(-115)
Since 2017, the winner of the Red River Shootout has been the team wearing white 5/6 (0.833) times.#OUvsTEX pic.twitter.com/iSLdmfP1it
— Kyle Umlang (@kyleumlang) October 2, 2023
After Dillon Gabriel was forced to miss this showdown in 2022, a depleted and far less talented Oklahoma squad was shelled 49-0 by the Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl. This season brings in two entirely different teams. While most of the players are the same, both teams have been playing far better in 2023.
For the first time in over a decade, both Oklahoma and Texas arrive in Dallas undefeated. In the final season for both in the Big 12, the Sooners and the Longhorns look to use this game to vault them into the conference championship game. Even with a loss, both teams have the talent and the schedule to meet again in December. For both these teams, nothing else matters but winning this game on the first Saturday in October.
Quinn Ewers was banged up last season, but due to the dismal play of Oklahoma, it didn't matter. This season, both he and Gabriel are playing solid. According to ESPN EPA stats Ewers is 14th in the country with 36 expected points while Gabriel is second with more than 40 points added. Neither of these teams has been turning the ball over and both defenses are playing at an elite level. Something Texas spent a lot of time on in the off-season and something coach Brent Venables was expected to do when he got the job at Oklahoma before the 2022 season.
This will be a showdown, and despite the offensive firepower of both teams, this game could finish lower scoring than expected. But you never know with the Red River Rivalry.
Betting: Texas -6.5 Under 60.5
No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs
Betting Lines: Georgia -14.5(-105) O/U 48.5 O(-110)U(-110)
Kentucky is coming off its third straight win over rival Florida on Saturday. After beating the Gators 33-14, the reward for Kentucky is to travel to Athens to battle the two-time defending national champions in Georgia.
While Georgia has not looked like its previous dominant team, it has still not lost and has overcome two deficits in SEC games against both South Carolina and Auburn.
Kentucky, ranked No. 20 and undefeated, is a far bigger challenge for the Bulldogs than either of the other two SEC opponents. Ray Davis, a transfer from Vanderbilt, ran over the Gators for 280 yards and 3 TD in the Wildcats victory. Georgia, who has not had a solid pass rush yet in 2023, will need to keep him contained this week and try to make Devin Leary beat them from the pocket. Something he has not had to do this season as Kentucky has played inferior competition this far.
The biggest factor in the game will be Brock Bowers, TE for Georgia. He is the best, or second-best player in the country and should be in contention to win the Heisman. If he played any position other than TE, that is. He is by far the best and most dangerous player in this game. Whether it be on passes downfield, jet sweeps, or designed run plays, Bowers can get it done in any aspect of the offense. If Kentucky can limit him, it has a chance to win. If Bowers can get loose, Georgia will run away and hide from the Wildcats.
Georgia is the only Power Five team that has yet to cover a spread in one of its games. If it wants to show voters and fans it is still elite, this would be a good week to change this state.
Betting: Kentucky +14.5 Under 48.5
No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Betting Lines: Alabama -2.5(-112) O/U 47.5 O(-105) U(-115)
Despite the massive loss Texas A&M suffered in Miami, the Aggies come into this game as barely an underdog against a Nick Saban-led Alabama team. Jalen Milroe, after being benched, has returned to the lineup over the past few weeks to rejuvenate the Tide in wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
Alabama, which gave up 34 points in its loss to Texas, has given up a total of 30 in the following three games entering Saturday. Texas A&M has shown offense all season. But in recent weeks, it has also shown a solid defense under defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. In the past three games, Texas A&M has only allowed 35 points, with 22 of those coming Saturday in a win against Arkansas at Jerry World.
Both these defenses will look to shut down the opponent in this one. The Aggies are vulnerable against the pass, but Milroe and Alabama have been unable to get the passing game going so far in 2023. Alabama’s defense will be able to control the Aggies offense even better with Conner Wiegman out for the season and Max Johnson replacing him at QB. Talented, Johnson does not provide the running threat of Weigman and Alabama will not have to worry as much about the QB run. This will limit what the Aggies can do against the Crimson Tide and Bobby Petrino will need to produce another way to get behind the Alabama defense to score.
Betting: Alabama -2.5 Under 47.5
No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 25 Louisville Cardinals
Betting Lines: ND -6.5(-115) O/U 53.5 O(-110)U(-110)
While Louisville comes into this game undefeated, it has played a bad schedule and looked bad in a 13-10 win over North Carolina State in its last outing.
Jeff Brohm came back to Louisville to bring offense back to the ACC. With Louisville scoring 56 points twice so far this season, he has begun to do so. That was against Boston College and Murray State. Those teams put up no fight on defense and 56 points should be expected by a team like Louisville against such talent.
In a win over Indiana, Louisville only managed to score 21. Despite playing on a fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Notre Dame and its defense will be the best unit on either side of the ball that Louisville has faced all season. How it can manage the defense will show how good the offense is.
Notre Dame comes into this matchup having gone 34-1 in its past 35 games against ACC opponents. This includes a final-minute 21-14 win over Duke on Saturday. This win, which followed the devastating 17-14 loss to Ohio State, was a game Notre Dame needed, and last season lost to Marshall. The Irish are now settled again after the emotions of the past two weeks. Already having played games in Ireland, Raleigh, and Durham, Notre Dame has been road-assessed more so than many power football teams. A trip to Louisville will not phase the team and if the Irish can avoid looking ahead to its game next week against USC, they will win another road game.
Betting: ND -6.5 Under 53.5
No. 14 Washington State Cougars vs. UCLA Bruins
Betting Lines: UCLA -3.5(-104) O/U 59.5 O(-110)U(-110)
WASHINGTON STATE @ UCLA pic.twitter.com/Kjh57ZDxEj
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 3, 2023
Washington State and UCLA could play the most exciting game of the week. Not the best, but the most exciting. QB Cameron Ward for Washington State and Dionte Moore for UCLA will provide plenty of fireworks as both teams will look to throw the ball approximately 75 times each.
Chip Kelly is known for his fast-paced offense since his days at Oregon. With Moore in tow, he now has his QB. Something he loves to have to make his offense hum. While the fast offense of Oregon is no longer novel and everyone is doing it, it is still effective to put up points.
One of those teams that love to run up-tempo is Washington State. Although the late Mike Leach is not there, his fingerprints are still all over the Cougar program.
Washington state ranks sixth in the country averaging 535.5 yards/game. 407.0 of these yards come throw the air which ranks them second in the nation in pass yards. UCLA, whose defense is playing better, must contain the offense of the Cougars. UCLA has not played an offense with the ability of Washington State to this point. The UCLA defense has allowed a nation’s best 3.8 yards/play and is ranked 26th in the nation in pass defense at 186.0 yards.
If the UCLA defense can get stops against Washington State at home, the Bruins will blow out Washington State. If the elite offense of the Cougars is too much for an untested Bruins defense, This will be the second loss of the season for UCLA.
Betting: Washington State 3.5 Over 59.5
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