RADIO
We had a pretty solid Week 5, getting six of the top 10 defenses correct including having the top three defenses all finish in the top four on the week. Also, two defenses who finished in the top 10 were ranked inside the top 14, which made them playable in 12-team leagues, so that's a minor hint we're moving in the right direction. However, there are still some misses worth noting to see how we should react.
The biggest miss for me this week was the Patriots. A commenter on Reddit said I was crazy to not have them in the top 10 against the Lions, and I told this person that I just didn't see the argument. The Patriots had allowed a score on 40% of their drives. They were only 19th in pressure rate. The Lions' offense had been tremendous and was getting Amon-Ra St. Brown back. I didn't see a path forward for the Patriots, but we obviously know what they did, finishing as the 2nd-ranked defense on the week.
But I have to say, I don't regret my ranking of them. I was wrong, yes, but I think the process was right. There was nothing other than blind faith in Bill Belichick that said the Patriots would be a good play, and so we have to hold true to the process and not over-react to results early in the season. Will the Patriots move up my rankings? Yup, they already have, but that's because their results on the field have impacted their BOD ranking, which impacts my faith in them. We shouldn't arbitrarily move defenses up simply based on previous results.
This also leads me to a brief tangent on the Dolphins. I had them 15th last week and urged people not to plug-and-play just because it was the Jets. The Dolphins' defense hadn't earned that this season, and we can't operate based on what a defense or offense did last year. Now, again, the results were skewed by a Teddy Bridgewater injury and nobody really saw the Jets putting up 40 points, but the process ran parallel to the results, so it can add a little bit more validity to the idea that the Jets may not be an easy matchup, and the Dolphins may not be the defense they were in the past.
As a reminder, every week I do a YouTube DST video called Pick 3(DST) where I give you three defenses I like during the week and one that I'm fading. We have some fun with it, but I think it gives a lot of the same reasoning I present here, so check it out for some video fun. And my BOD Leaderboard is available on Public Tableau, where you can see my updated BOD rankings, plus a leaderboard for the individual defensive stats I use for the BOD formula, and some of the offensive stats that I think can help us determine which DST to play or not. Also, make sure to always check back with this article over the weekend because I will my updated rankings as the week goes on when we get injury news or troubling weather information, etc.
What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 5 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 5 everyone!
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Break-Ups) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(Missed Tackles)+ (% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
25-25 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top-10 this year, so I'll keep track using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 6 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
Tier one this week is all about trusting the best defenses.
I know the 49ers will be without Nick Bosa, Emmanuel Moseley, and Jimmie Ward. I also understand those are not minor injuries. However, I think this is an extremely well-coached unit that has the depth to have players step in and perform, especially against the Falcons. The 49ers are 2nd in pressure rate, 1st in tackles for a loss, 1st in sacks, and 1st in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score. They are the best defense in football, and I'm going to rank them as such.
Tampa Bay also remains an elite fantasy defense. They are 3rd in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, 3rd in tackles for a loss, 3rd in sacks, and 6th in turnover rate. They now get a Steelers team that gives up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing offenses, so I think we can fire up the Bucs with confidence.
The Eagles are another defense that deserves our repeated respect. They are 1st in the league in turnover rate, 4th in sacks, 7th in tackles for a loss, 5th in pressure rate, and 2nd in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score. I know Cooper Rush has impressed people as the starter for Dallas, but he hasn't faced a test like this Eagles' defense yet. The Cowboys' offensive line is still down a few key starters, and I think this Eagles team can certainly take advantage.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
The Colts should get Jonathan Taylor back this week, but the Jaguars did a pretty good job against him just a few weeks ago. Alec Pierce also makes this Colts' offense better, but Matt Ryan is a shell of himself and this offensive line is poor, so the Colts currently give up the 2nd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. The Jaguars are 9th in pressure rate, 13th in tackles for a loss, 5th in turnover rate, and 4th in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, so this is still a solid unit I trust this weekend. SUNDAY UPDATE: Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are both out for Sunday, so this game will rest on the arm of Matt Ryan. That's good news for the Jaguars' defense.
I know it may be a surprise to see the Bengals this high, but their defense has actually been solid this year. They've been pretty average when it comes to pressure rate and sacks, but they're 9th in turnover rate, 9th in yards allowed per play, and 12th in percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score. That likely would keep them just outside the top 10 most weeks, but the Saints give up the 3rd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and will likely be without breakout star Chris Olave this week. SUNDAY UPDATE: The Saints will be without Olave, Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Jarvis Landry. It's going to be all Alvin Kamara, which could mean a slow, grind-it-out game, but I'll take my chances that the Bengals offense will force the Saints to throw at some point.
It's so hard to know what to make of the Ravens. They play great defenses for long stretches of games, and then totally implode for brief periods. However, they strung together a pretty complete game last week, and I think Marcus Peters is beginning to get healthier, which makes me feel better about this unit overall. The Ravens have not been great at getting pressure on the quarterback so far this season, but they have the individual players to give the Giants problems, and they're currently 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate and 2nd in pass breakups, so I think they have the makings of a unit that could have a solid day overall.
Much like the Eagles in the tier above, the Cowboys are playing such good football on defense that you have to trust them in this matchup. They're 1st in pressure rate, 2nd in tackles for a loss, 2nd in sacks, and 5th in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score. There's even an argument they should be higher than this, but this Eagles offense just scares me a bit. I think they're the best team in the NFC.
This Thursday night game between the Commanders and Bears is going to be awful to watch, and I recommend maybe just skipping it altogether. However, I think both defenses are intriguing. The Commanders are 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, and the Bears are 6th. The Commanders are also 7th in the NFL in sacks and 6th in tackles for a loss, which, to me, gives them an edge in this game between two offensive lines that have given up too many sacks.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
The Rams and Packers are two teams I see ranked inside the top five or six in some rankings this week, but I just can't do it. I think they're playable, so they hover around the top-to for me, but I think just think they're being elevated too far based on matchup. As I've said a number of times, I think you can elevate average defenses a bit based on the matchup, but we don't want to move them too much because average defenses will always find a way to be average. Well, both of these units have been average so far.
The Packers have much better pressure metrics, but they're 24th in the NFL in turnover rate and 15th in yards allowed per play. The Jets also only allow the 15th-most points per game to fantasy defenses. The Packers themselves allow more points to opposing defenses. The Panthers are certainly a much worse offense and will likely be starting P.J. Walker at quarterback, but this Rams team as a whole has just shown nothing so far, and I can't get overly excited about playing them when they're 31st in pressure rate and 22nd in sacks. However, they are 9th in turnover rate, which allows them to sneak into the top ten for this week.
The Bills are one of the best defenses in football, so maybe I should have them in the top 10, but I'm also a Bills fan, so I'm programmed to prepare for the worst this weekend. The Chiefs also allow the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing defenses at just 1.6 points per game. It's hard to feel confident starting any defense against that.
The Panthers have been solid all season, and the Rams give up the most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses, but I'm just not sure how the firing of Matt Rhule will impact this team. Maybe it motivates them. Maybe I'm unfairly docking Carolina for that. I'll think about it during the week and maybe move them up.
Just a note that this Vikings ranking is because I expect both Tyreek Hill and Teddy Bridgewater to play on Sunday. If Skylar Thompson is starting for Miami, I would move Minnesota up. SUNDAY UPDATE: Skylar Thompson is starting, so the Vikings have moved up, but the Dolphins still have good offensive pieces and Bridgewater is cleared to play, so he could easily come into this game, and he has weapons in Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert, so this isn't an offense I'm openly trying to attack with a mediocre defense.
We mentioned the Thursday night game above, but the Bears are also in play. On the season, the Commanders give up the 6th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, and the Bears give up the 9th, so I think that makes both units playable in most formats.
I have been burned so many times by the Chargers that I can't feel comfortable about going back to them, but I need to rank with my head and not my bitter, scorned fury. The Broncos give up the 4th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses and just look atrocious when you watch them play. I think Nathaniel Hackett is out of his depth, but the Chargers have just been a mediocre defense. They're 20th in turnover rate, 25th in pressure rate, 14th in tackles for a loss, and 14th in sacks. It's hard to be overly excited despite the good matchup.
The Patriots, meanwhile, moved up in my BOD rankings as I mentioned above, but they face a Browns team that gives up the 2nd-fewest points per game to fantasy defenses at just 2.4 yards per game. That game figures to be a slow, grind-it-out contest, so I don't really love playing either defense there, even though the Patriots did go off last week.
I see people have the Broncos near the top ten, but I can't do that against this Chargers offense that might be getting Keenan Allen back. Also, the Jets need a shoutout here. I'm not sure I love this matchup for them, but this defense could be for real.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
You can play the Saints if you want, I know some people have them inside the top 12, but they've shown me nothing as a defense that suggests we can trust them in fantasy. This Bengals offense still has tons of dynamic weapons and could wake up at any moment.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 6
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