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Welcome to the 2017 edition of the Recently Promoted Prospects! Here I discuss some recently promoted prospects and what to make of their production for fantasy owners.
What a week for prospect promotions huh?! Cody Bellinger, Dan Vogelbach and Christian Arroyo! Pretty cool stuff for fantasy owners. I’m sure those owners who stashed Bellinger at the beginning of the season are feeling really happy right now that they made that decision. With all these prospects, we’ve got a lot to discuss.
So without any further ado, let’s get right into talking about the recently promoted prospects for week 4!
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- Who should I start? Fantasy baseball player comparisons
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Hitters:
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, LAD) - 14% owned
It was speculated that though Bellinger was hitting well in the minors, it would take a lot for him to receive a promotion to the majors. Well right now, Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson, Rob Segedin and Franklin Gutierrez — all outfielders — are currently on the 10-day DL. After Pederson was placed on the DL, the Dodgers decided it was time to call up their top prospect. And to give you an idea of the level of confidence they have in him, they batted him leadoff in his second game in the majors.
The Dodgers have confidence in Bellinger, and so too should you. MLB Pipeline rated him as the 10th best prospect in baseball, and a certain awesome prospect writer had him fifth on his Top 30 MLB-ready Prospect List (he would’ve been No. 2 if I figured a call-up would come this early). Bellinger has not gotten off to the hottest start in the majors just yet, but before his promotion, he was slashing .343/.429/.627 with five home runs and seven stolen bases in 18 games. Bellinger is far more athletic than your normal first baseman and could steal a handful bags with a ton of power (Baseball America gave him 70 Power and MLB Pipeline gave him 65).
He could be a left-handed Paul Goldschmidt at his peak and owners should be thrilled to have a chance to own him. Bellinger has a chance to hit .290 with 30 home runs and 10+ stolen bases if he receives regular playing time for Los Angeles. That 14 percent ownership rate better be at least at 90 percent next time I take a look at it.
Dan Vogelbach (1B, SEA) - 3% owned
The excitement is undoubtedly going to go down between the top name on this list and the second name on this list. Vogelbach is one of the top first base prospects in the game, but he is no Bellinger. With that said, there is still plenty of reasons to want to add Vogelbach. The lumbering first baseman is anything but athletic, but his bat is potent enough to make up for that.
He has demonstrated extraordinary patience, rarely striking out above 20 percent in the minors and often walking nearly at the same clip. He has also always hit at or above .280 while being on pace for 20+ home runs. Vogelbach also has the added bonus of batting in the middle of a relatively potent lineup with the chance to drive in a ton of runs for Seattle. He is not as much fun as Bellinger, but he is at least worth snagging in some 12+ team leagues and definitely all 14+ team leagues.
Christian Arroyo (SS, SF) - 4% owned
With Brandon Crawford dealing with some injuries, Arroyo has filled in at shortstop for a bit, but he is really going to be the longterm third baseman for the club at this point. Arroyo does not have much pop despite launching three home runs in 16 games at Triple-A before his promotion. With that said, he may have enough to drill 10 homers for fantasy owners. He also does not steal a lot of bases, so fantasy owners should not count on those either. Owners can feel confident in his batting average. He makes a ton of contact and has always posted high batting averages in the minors. Joe Panik is owned in about 24 percent of leagues and is a comparable player to Arroyo. I would say Arroyo’s lack of exciting skills limits his value to some of the deeper leagues, but as long as he keeps posting a high average, owners in 14+ team leagues should have a spot for him on their roster.
Jorge Bonifacio (OF, KC) - 1% owned
Bonficaio is one of the more interesting prospects on this list. He has hit well in the minors, but never really put up explosive numbers until last season when he hit .277 and drove 19 balls over the wall in 134 games of work. Now he’s up with the Royals, starting nearly every day and hitting near the middle of their lineup.
The Royals’ outfielder has some pop and could be a 20-homer sleeper if he receives enough playing time. His plate discipline probably still needs a little bit of work as he has struck out above 20 percent of the time at every level above Advanced Class-A in his MiLB career, but owners should still be able to expect a .250+ batting average out of him. He could be a solid bat to own in 14+ team leagues as long as he’s being placed in situations to drive in runs and receiving consistent playing time.
Gift Ngoepe (SS, PIT) - 0% owned
One of the coolest stories so far this season, Ngoepe was the first-ever African-born player to debut in the majors. The 27-year-old shortstop was promoted by Pittsburgh and made an appearance on Wednesday and tallied his first major-league hit in his first at-bat. Though this is a cool story, he has not dazzled in the minors and has little to point to to say he is going to be anything more than a bench bat. He is probably not worth owning in any format.
Pitchers:
Nick Pivetta (SP, PHI) - 1% owned
With Aaron Nola headed to the 10-day DL, Pivetta has been promoted to take his spot in the rotation. Pivetta was originally supposed to start on Tuesday, but a rain delay pushed his debut back to Sunday. Pivetta owned Triple-A hitters before his promotion, striking out a third of all hitters he faced while only walking 2.8 percent. He had just a 0.95 ERA and 1.19 FIP. And these numbers should not be all that surprising as he struck out a ton of batters last season (26.7 percent at Triple-A and 21.6 percent at Double-A) with sub-10 percent walk rates and an ERA below 3.50.
Pivetta has the stuff to succeed, he just needs to work on refining his command. It looks like he has made some significant strides in that area, at least through 19 innings of work this season, and has the potential to operate as a big-league regular starting pitcher. He is worth a flier in deeper leagues, and could eventually be worth an add in 12+ team leagues if his command really has improved.
German Marquez (SP, COL) - 1% owned
Another starter thrown into a rotation due to injury, Marquez is taking over the rotation spot for Jonathan Gray who is now on the 10-day DL. Unlike Pivetta, Marquez did start already, but he probably would have wanted that one rained out as he was demolished by the Nationals for eight runs and nine hits over four innings. Owners should not completely abandon ship just yet though, as that was a pretty brutal matchup for only his fourth MLB start and Marquez has the stuff to be much better. He has always shown a propensity for keeping the ball on the ground, and scouts believe he is going to be one of those pitchers who might be able to succeed in Coors Field. With that said, owners need to remain a little skeptical as Coors Field is not a fun home ball park for pitchers. He is probably worth an add in 16+ team leagues, but owners in shallower leagues should hold off for now.
Chih-Wei Hu (SP, TB) - 0% owned
Hu, a starter for all of his MiLB career, has made only one appearance as a relief pitcher. But Hu is not being promoted as a starter, he is up as a reliever in the wake of Tommy Hunter’s injury. The 23-year-old pitcher has enjoyed a largely successful minor-league career, but he is not going to get a chance to start just yet unless someone in Tampa really struggles. He should remain unowned until it looks like he might join a rotation.
John Barbato (RP, PIT) - 0% owned
Barbato is strictly a relief pitcher, and while he has shown some strikeout upside in the past and has been a solid reliever in the minors, he is a relief pitcher none the less. He has the stuff to be a setup guy, but his control problems will keep him out of that spot at least for 2017. And especially since he is nowhere near any saves, he can remain unowned.
Chris Beck (RP, CWS) - 0% owned
Beck, unlike Barbato, does not strikeout a ton of guys, but he does have the potential to make a spot start here and there given the fact he has some experience as a starter in the past. Expect him to fill a long-relief role for Chicago. As for fantasy owners, he can really be ignored since he will not be given any save chances and will not be a full-time starter.
