Well folks, we're heading into Week 4 now. That sense of familiarity with football is setting in. The chaos of week-to-week adjustments, realizing you saw a trend where there wasn't one, or hitting the jackpot and cashing in a huge day. We can all agree that Week 3 was pretty absurd, with many studs and popular "plug-in" types going off. Let's try to be rational here, but if you put up a gaudy point total in Week 3, relish that for a minute before looking forward.

Enjoy it. Feels nice right? Time's up.

Amidst many players making it rain fantasy points, many of you know there are still fallers to be identified. I will try to pick players that I feel merit some discussion that isn't painfully obvious. Yes, Julio Jones is on fire, but it's not really much of a change in his stock. Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles went off? You don't say. Joique Bell still looks like a zombie covered in molasses? You get the point. Let's see what fallout from Week 3 looks actionable.

 

Week 4 Fantasy Football Risers

LeGarrette Blount - RB, New England Patriots

Yes, it took an absolute massacre for Blount to really see the field over Dion Lewis (who still looks good out there), but this is still a huge step up from the questions raised after a no show in Week 2. While it appears to be the Dion show first, Blount showed that is still an effective runner and good to go at the goal line. Projecting their usage going forward, it seems like Lewis is going to be the primary back for New England in competitive games unless the opponent is really soft against the run (and even then, Lewis may still get a lot of work), while Blount will come in as a second half hammer or only if the game is more in hand. Pretending to know what New England will do is silly, but the Patriots' schedule does have a ton of run stuffing defenses still to come, so there's no doubt Lewis will have a huge role.

The question is, does Blount need a blowout to be effective? I do not believe so, I think this shows everyone there that he is still good for the style that he brings to the table, and Belichick will find a way for that to work in. Blount won't finish the year as the Patriots' leading RB in points scored anymore it seems, but there's a lot to go around, as that offense is going to score.

Rishard Matthews – WR, Miami Dolphins

Rishard Matthews is one of those guys who was pretty easy to look at after two weeks of decent stat lines and write off as fluky. If you read this last week, you hopefully already snagged him, but all the same this is a guy who deserves attention because of the aura of skepticism about him. You want to be "too early" rather than "too late" in fantasy football. Week 3 was Matthews' best game yet, where he turned ten targets into six catches, 113 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, Miami was behind early and it probably wasn't the gameplan they envisioned.

Doesn't matter. First of all, Miami looks to be in a horrid state of disarray (they'll have some appearances in the "Fallers" portion), so beacons of light shouldn't be scrutinized too heavily by management. Matthews has clearly worked his way past Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills, and is drawing targets at a good clip. He's not in Jarvis Landry territory as far as raw usage, but while Landry's yards per target was 5.2 in Week 3, Matthews had over double that with an 11.3 yards per target figure. He won't always average that, but it points to the routes that he runs as well as Tannehill being able to get him the ball.

Jeremy Maclin – WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Maclin and his owners were suffering with a big fat goose egg after one half of play on Monday Night Football. Then he exploded in the second half, finishing with 11 targets, 8 receptions, 141 yards and a touchdown. Now, it's not promising at all in my eyes that it took a huge hole for Alex Smith and Andy Reid to dial up some plays and looks to Maclin, but you'll take it. I'm not going to sit here and say sell him off of this week, but I also won't say that Maclin owners should feel validated, and this is the norm moving forward. It is clear that Andy Reid wants the offense to run through Jamaal Charles and picking their opponents apart. Expecting anything different feels irrational. Travis Kelce owners don't like it either, trust me. Maclin is going to be reliant on either heavy volume or breaking off huge gains after the catch to return substantial value. That said, he showed he can do it despite Alex Smith's limitations, and we've seen in his first two weeks that he has a fairly consistent floor (52 and 57 yards in the first two weeks, respectively). His stock is on the rise as he flashes the skill set, and even if it just makes Andy Reid pause for one second to realize he can turn to Maclin sooner than halftime in a shootout, that's a win for Maclin and his owners.

Latavius Murray – RB, Oakland Raiders

This went according to plan. The Cleveland Browns were not an imposing defense against the run by any means, but the first stretch of the game still didn't see Latavius benefiting much from Oakland moving the ball. For all the awesomeness that Derek Carr and the Raiders' receiving corps were bringing to the table (yes, their stocks are up as well, keep an eye on Seth Roberts as an effective slot guy in deeper leagues), Murray was leaving owners with a puzzled look. Then he broke off a long run and things got going. He finished the Week 3 tilt with 26 rushes for 139 yards and a touchdown, good for a nice 5.3 yards per carry figure. Maybe you were starting to wonder if Latavius would really get the chance to put up RB1 numbers, and now you can relax.

Oh, and he gets to face the Chicago Bears defense next week, so I'd expect more of the same. That said, Denver in Week 5 is probably going to be trouble before a Week 6 bye, but from a "rest of season" standpoint, you should good about Latavius Murray.

 

Other Risers To Be Aware Of

• Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Many were very worried about whether Mike Evans would get on the same page with Jameis Winston, as well as be used effectively by Lovie Smith and company in Tampa. Well, those questions weren't really answered cleanly. Evans actually finished Week 3 tied with Steve Smith for the third most targets on the week with 17. The issue is that Winston and Evans only put that together for seven catches. He still had 103 yards on the day, so you're definitely not hurting as an Evans owner and the stock is trending upwards, but there's so much room for growth, that's the real kicker to me.
• Andy Dalton - QB, Cincinnati Bengals -I'm as surprised as most of you. Andy Dalton showing consistency is a strange sight. The Red Rifle completed 20 of 32 passes for 381 yards and three touchdowns, while being picked off once in Week 3 against the Ravens on the road. He hasn't busted the "Primetime Dalton" shroud yet, but this is beyond encouraging to see from Dalton.
• Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons - I had Freeman here with a small blurb about how I didn't trust him to take advantage of the opportunity with Tevin Coleman being injured due to his size and inability to shake off a hit. Well, I still think this doesn't have much lasting power, but it's undeniable that Freeman showed the Falcons and fantasy owners alike that if you give him a little space, he does have the vision and burst to make a cut and hit the hole.
• Charles Clay - TE, Buffalo Bills - The knee will forever scare me, but boy he looked good on that catch and run in Sunday where he left three defenders in his wake as he danced into the end zone. The Bills probably won't be scoring as much as they have been moving forward, but Charles Clay is a legitimate weapon and a very athletic guy in his own right for Tyrod Taylor to utilize. He won't put up insane numbers any one week, but he definitely put himself squarely in the tight end conversation with his Week 3 performance (seven targets, five receptions, 83 yards and a touchdown).

 

Week 4 Fantasy Football Fallers

The Entire San Francisco Offense – QB, RB, WR, TE, San Francisco 49ers

I like doing this. Don't hate on blanket statements, they can be efficient sometimes. It shouldn't be news to anyone that the 49ers were absolutely embarrassed in Week 3 against the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are an interesting case. One couldn't get much lower than their offseason, losing so many key pieces, and then their Week 1 opener was dominant. Carlos Hyde steamrolled the Vikings and the defense shut down Adrian Peterson and company. Weeks 2 and 3 are trending way down, with Week 3 being one of the more disgusting showings of the year. Kaepernick looked awful and made poor decisions to put SF in an early hole. Hyde hasn't gotten anything going, averaging 3.4 yards per carry these past two weeks. Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith (sans the one 75 yard bomb), and Vernon Davis are all struggling as a result as well. Pittsburgh's defense should have been gashed in Week 2. Arizona's defense is legitimate, though a professional team has no excuse for engaging "dumpster fire" mode like that. In the next three weeks they get Green Bay (at home, luckily), the New York Giants, and Baltimore. We'll see what they've got, but they are trending downwards right now.

Doug Martin - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Originally, Doug Martin was going to be one of the "obvious" examples at the beginning of the piece, but I watch Tampa Bay a bunch and others might (should) not right now. Tampa Bay's offensive line is terrible. There's no hope right now. It's in shambles. The highest rated player according to ProFootballFocus is Evan Dietrich-Smith at a whopping 0.5, while the others are sitting around -5 with the exception being their second round pick, tackle Donovan Smith, with a -13.1 rating. Wow. Look, Doug Martin needs cheat codes or else he can't do much of anything behind that.

Yes, Tampa Bay went against a strong Houston Texans' defensive line this past week, but they've looked bad all year (and in the preseason). Help doesn't appear to be coming, as a Week 4 date against the Carolina Panthers is not what anyone would prescribe a struggling offensive front. This is a falling stock for sure.

Golden Tate – WR, Detroit Lions

The Lions have not looked too good so far, and Matthew Stafford being banged up helps nothing. That being said, Golden Tate has not started this year strong. Tate's line so far in 2015: 24 targets, 15 receptions, 161 yards and 0 touchdowns. Another piece of this that scares me is that out of those 161 yards, 107 of them are coming after the catch. Now Tate is the type of guy who relies on yards after the catch for sure, a shifty route runner with speed, but all the same it's troubling to know that he's averaging 3.6 yards per catch when he gets the ball.

Weeks 4 and 5 line up dates with Seattle and Arizona for the Lions, so there might be more ugly to stomach for Tate owners. The hope is that Stafford stays upright and is able to find a rhythm with the offense as a whole. When Calvin Johnson gets going, Tate usually follows, but things haven't looked pretty thus far.

Teddy Bridgewater – QB, Minnesota Vikings

What the heck Teddy? Bridgewater was looking amazing in the preseason (I know, I know) and seemed poised to take steps forward with a growing Charles Johnson, the return of Adrian Peterson, and the acquisition of Mike Wallace. This has not happened. His overall numbers are being somewhat salvaged by a solid Week 2 effort against Detroit (who everyone seems to be passing effectively against). Week 3 was disgusting, finishing with 13 completions on 24 attempts for a paltry 121 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Minnesota still won convincingly 31-14 on the backs of Adrian Peterson and a strong defensive effort, but the concern is there for Teddy.

His next opponent? Oh you know, just the Denver Broncos and their #1 defensive unit...in Denver. I'm worried, and I don't see how that matchup is going to help Teddy's stock at all heading into the Vikings' Week 5 bye. Hopefully if you were banking on him in a 2 QB league or as a backup, you were able to scoop some of the other hot starters instead. Hopefully Minnesota adjusts, maybe Teddy is just trying to do too much, but a matchup in Denver with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. does not seem like the place where answers will be found.

 

Other Fallers To Be Aware Of

• Andrew Luck - QB, Indianapolis Colts - This was the first quarterback off of draft boards more often than not, and while Aaron Rodgers casually drops five touchdowns on the Chiefs on Monday Night, Andrew Luck struggles yet again against the Tennessee Titans defense before staging a late comeback. As the game was happening, my friend was talking to me about buying him low, and then the comeback happened. Perhaps it was enough to salvage his image in the eyes of Luck owners, but if their faith is shaken at all, look to capitalize. Luck posted his highest QB rating in Week 3, with a mean 82.6 rating. This is not impressive. His schedule should bode well for him and the Colts should start gelling more as Andre Johnson gets phased out (HUGE faller, by the way) and the offensive line works more together, but for now Luck's stock is definitely falling.
• Lamar Miller - RB, Miami Dolphins - I genuinely feel bad for Lamar Miller and his owners. This guy should be very good, but it appears that the Dolphins coaching staff can't put the pieces together, Tannehill hasn't been too effective, and the defense looks quite lousy. Week 4 is against the Jets, and Week 5 is their bye. I'll probably be looking to buy during the bye (ha), but the proverbial magic eight ball says the outlook isn't good right now. Jonas Gray looked decent against Buffalo as well, which doesn't help anything for Miller.
• Jeremy Hill - RB, Cincinnati Bengals - It has to be said. This guy's stock has gone from first round running back to full fledged timeshare back. Not only that, but it has been said now that if the Bengals are losing that Giovani Bernard is the guy. Bernard didn't impress with a 3.8 yards per carry line (13 carries for 49 yards), but it beats Hill's pathetic 1.8 (12 carries for 21 yards). Jeremy Hill is putting their owners into DEFCON 1 with his performance, and the Bengals schedule won't make his life any easier (KC, SEA, and @BUF upcoming before their bye).
• Jordan Cameron - TE, Miami Dolphins - Jordan Cameron was supposed to be the red zone look for Ryan Tannehill, and while his first two weeks were serviceable (73 and 62 yard receiving lines), a three reception, 16 yards and no touchdown line in Week 3 is awful to see. Perhaps you can shake him from an owner, because that line doesn't show that he still got eight targets. In a year that has seen plenty of tight ends blowing up with great performances, Cameron's 2015 is hard to stomach.

 

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