RADIO
Another week of going 50% in terms of hitting on our top 10 defenses. The Kyler Murray injury allowed New England to vault up, and the Cowboys let us down in shocking fashion against the Texans, finishing with just four points. It's another glaring reminder of just how hard it is to pin down defensive performance and why we need to be OK with just getting a handful of points some weeks.
It's better than the negative four you got if you rolled the dice with Tennessee, for example.
We're now far enough into the season that we need to keep in mind season-long rankings but also recent performance. In the writeups below you'll hear me mention season-long stats as well as fantasy performances over the last six weeks to try and create a balance analytical approach. I also published a rest-of-season article where I looked at defenses that could pair well with one another to give you the best possible performance week in and week out, so check that out if you're gearing up for playoffs.
As a reminder, every week I do a YouTube DST video called Pick 3(DST) where I give you three defenses I like during the week and one that I'm fading. We have some fun with it, but I think it gives a lot of the same reasoning I present here, so check it out for some video fun. And my BOD Leaderboard is available on Public Tableau, where you can see my updated BOD rankings, plus a leaderboard for the individual defensive stats I use for the BOD formula, and some of the offensive stats that I think can help us determine which DST to play or not. Also, make sure to always check back with this article over the weekend because I will my updated rankings as the week goes on when we get injury news or troubling weather information, etc.
What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 15 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 15 everyone!
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
74-67 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top 10 this year, so I'll keep track using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 15 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two-spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
You're used to seeing the Eagles and 49ers up here. They're two of the best fantasy defenses in football, and so you're likely rolling them out there every single matchup. That shouldn't change this week. Despite the Seahawks being a bit of a darling team this season, they are also 19th in the league, giving up 8.9 points per week to opposing fantasy defenses and we're not sure if Kenneth Walker will play, so you can still fire up the 49ers.
The Texans have taken over for the Rams as the friendliest offense, giving up 14.9 points per week to opposing fantasy defenses. Both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins missed last week, and the Texans, who are clearly gunning for the 1st pick, have no incentive to get them back onto the field. The Chiefs have been the 5th-ranked defense over the last month and are 4th in sacks, 7th in pressure rate, and 10th in tackles for a loss, so they could post some big plays against this Houston offense.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
It's weird to see the Cowboys in tier two, but this is not a great matchup. The Jaguars are 5th-best in the league, giving up just 6.1 points per game on average to opposing fantasy defenses. You're still starting the Cowboys because of their safe floor, but I'm not sure they have the ceiling of the tier-one defenses this week.
Buffalo lost Von Miller for the season but has still stepped it up of late now that Tre'Davious White is playing a full-time role and Tremaine Edmunds and Greg Rousseau have returned to the lineup. They are 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 2nd in opponents' scoring rate, and 2nd in tackles for a loss. Perhaps more importantly, the weather right now calls for 20 degrees and snowing on Saturday. A potentially wet and sloppy field is not great news for a Dolphins offense that is built on quick-hitting passing and letting their speedy receivers run after the catch. Also, did you see Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday night? Woof.
OK, this is the week we get Chase Young back. I've been wrong three times now, but the Commanders confirmed it before the bye week. This is a defense that is 3rd in tackles for a loss, 4th in quarterback pressure rate, and 10th in sacks so they are going to bring the pressure against a banged-up Saquon Barkley and the Giants, who are winless in their last four games. Daniel Jones has also been sacked 16 times in those four games, including four to the Commanders two weeks ago. The Commanders finished as a top-ten defense then, and I expect them to do it again here.
The Packers slide into tier two because the Rams still give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 14.6 per game. Baker Mayfield led them to a miraculous victory on Thursday, but the offense was atrocious for three and a half quarters and that Raiders defense isn't anything special. Green Bay has been a pretty average defense for much of the year, but this is a matchup where they should be able to sneak into the top ten.
Both the Panthers and Steelers are playable here, but if we get Mitch Trubisky at quarterback again, then I have to side with Carolina. They're the 8th-ranked defense over the last month, averaging eight points per game, while ranking 7th in tackles for a loss and 10th in opponent's scoring rate. They've also forced a turnover in each of their last four games, including four in their last two. That's intriguing given what Trubisky looked like last week.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
Still, with Sam Darnold at quarterback, I'm OK rolling out the Steelers' defense too. However, they're averaging just 4.8 points per game over the past month, so the return of T.J. Watt hasn't been as exciting as we wanted it to be. Given that Carolina has gone to a more conservative and run-heavy approach (they ran for 223 yards against the Seahawks), it makes it harder for opposing offenses to put up big fantasy totals.
I also think both defenses are playable in the Cardinals vs Broncos matchup. With Colt McCoy at quarterback, the Broncos seem to be the better play. McCoy was sacked six times against the Patriots and while this Broncos team is only 16th in sacks and 19th in quarterback pressure rate, they boast solid cornerbacks who could make life hard for McCoy. However, on the other side, the Broncos remain an offense to target, giving up 10.7 points per game to opposing defenses. Jerry Jeudy did go off against the Chiefs on Sunday, so it's possible Denver is finding a bit more rhythm on offense, and this Cardinals defense has been suspect in the secondary this year, so they might not be as slam dunk a play as we think. SUNDAY UPDATE: I've bumped Arizona ahead of Denver with the news that Brett Rypien will be starting at quarterback.
Baltimore is the 6th-ranked defense over the last month, so they are always a playable option, but the Browns continue to be a run-heavy offense that doesn't open up a lot of opportunities for fantasy goodness on defense. I wouldn't shy away from using Baltimore, but I don't see it as a high-ceiling game.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
A lot of defenses here that I like that are just not in great matchups. The Bucs, Patriots, and Jets are all playable; however, the Raiders and Lions are tied for 9th-best in the league, allowing just 6.9 fantasy points to opposing defenses per week. The Lions have especially been playing really good football lately, so I think all three of these defenses have safe floors but not much of a ceiling this week. The Jets may be a good real-life defense, but they're the 10th-ranked fantasy defense over the last six weeks, averaging 7.6 points per game and might be without Quinnen Williams, who suffered a calf injury against the Bills.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have been inconsistent enough that it's hard to trust them, even with a matchup against the Colts. Since Jeff Saturday has taken over, the Colts haven't necessarily been better, but they have given up fewer points to opposing defenses because they are running the ball way more. However, they turned the ball over five times against the Cowboys when trying to play from behind, so if the Vikings can get out in front, they could put similar pressure on this Colts offense, but if the Vikings are sloppy early, this could be tough.
You may be tempted to have the Saints higher because Desmond Ridder is at quarterback, but are we sure Ridder is worse than Marcus Mariota? We know that Arthur Smith is going to go super run-heavy, and the Falcons' offensive line doesn't give up a lot of sacks. Ridder also has value with his legs, so I'm so sure he takes enough chances for the Saints to be a great value.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 15
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