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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part one of our Week 14 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Week 14 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Week 13 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: Travis Kelce (TE, KC), Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK), Ladarius Green (TE, PIT)
Kelce was able to keep up his great streak of games, posting his third straight 100-yard game in a wild win over Atlanta. Kelce has taken a step up over the past few weeks, and could very well finish as the top rated TE over the final few weeks. Crabtree dominated the Bills banged up secondary, leading the team with seven receptions for 74 yards and a TD. After getting frustrated early on in the game, he and the Raiders offense settled down in the second half and controlled the game. I said last week that Green could bust out sooner than later, and boy did he ever. Green had by far his biggest impact on the offense since his return, catching six passes for 110 yards and a TD. For anyone scrambling to get a TE, Green has huge upside in a potent offense as the primary pass-catching TE.
Greatest Misses: Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL), Latavius Murray (RB, OAK), Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA)
I did not think Freeman would be able to beat the tough Chiefs front seven, but he was able to have a solid fantasy day. He only ran for 56 yards on 15 attempts (3.7 YPC), but he ran for two TD and also caught four passes for 49 yards. He has two tough fantasy playoff games, but should be started the rest of the year. Murray came out hot in the second half along with the rest of the Oakland offensive attack, and ended up having a solid day on the ground. He rushed 20 times for 82 yards and two scores, while also catching three passes for 23 yards. He now has a whopping 12 TD on the season with only nine games started. The Panthers have been good at stopping the run all season, but Thomas Rawls broke the mold by rushing 15 times for 106 yards and two TD in the Seahawks big blowout win. He looked healthy and mean, which is a terrible combination for opposing defenses over these last four games.
Steelers @ Bills - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
Brown is in the midst of another terrific season for the Steelers, meaning he’s been causing problems for opposing defenses all season long. He has yet to go four straight games without a 100-yard game this season, with two streaks of three before breaking out for a big game. This Sunday will be the fourth game since his last 100-yard game, and this matchup with the Bills provides him a solid chance to have a huge game. He will likely be matched up with Stephon Gilmore initially, but because he moves all over the line he will get plus matchups eventually. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree were able to find success against this defense last week, meaning Brown should have little-to-no troubles finding space this week.
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
Shady has been the only member of the Bills offense worth starting all season long, carrying this team on his back at times. He is in the midst of a hot streak, with over 100-yards rushing in two straight games. Though they have been a little better of late, the Steelers have given up the sixth most fantasy points to the RB position. They have also given up the second most receiving yards to backs this season, another area where Shady can excel when called upon; he caught seven passes last game for 61 yards. He will continue to be the only option you can rely on in this offense the rest of the season.
Matchups We Hate
Tyrod Taylor (WB, BUF)
Though he is at home in this matchup, this will be far from an easy game for Tyrod Taylor. The struggling QB has been held under 200 yards passing in three straight games, and hasn’t thrown for more than one TD since Week 6. His saving grace has been his five rushing scores over the past six weeks, but he hasn’t been able to do much of anything outside those rushes. The Steelers have given up the seventh least amount of fantasy points to opposing QB, and have allowed only one 300-yard passer since Week 4. They have not faced a QB who can run like Taylor can which should help him, but his overall struggles make him a tough fantasy play.
Notable Players
Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)
The Bills are in the middle of the pack at defending opposing RB this season, but have improved since their bye week. Only one RB was able to find any real success, and that was Latavius Murray last week against Oakland. This defense has not yet faced a RB of Bell’s caliber though; a RB that can run and catch passes with the best of them. Even in a somewhat tough matchup for Bell, he should be able to feast based off of the amount of touches he gets every game. He will look to make it four straight 100-yard rushing games on Sunday.
Ladarius Green (TE, PIT)
Ladarius Green had his big coming out party last week against the Giants, catching 6-of-11 targets for 110 yards and a TD. It was by far the biggest role Green has played in this offense all season long as he’s made his way back from preseason injuries. Now mostly healthy, Green can help fill the void left by Martavis Bryant, as a steady number two option behind Antonio Brown. Buffalo is susceptible to big play tight ends, with Gronk, Martellus Bennett, and Jimmy Graham all having huge days against them. He makes for an interesting TE play not only this week, but for the rest of the season as well. He will see a healthy amount of targets the rest of the way.
Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)
Watkins hasn’t had the impact upon his return that many of us hoped he would, but it is unfair to pin the blame solely on Watkins. Taylor has shown his inaccuracy more of late, which hurts Watkins’ catch rate. He sees a good amount of targets, but if their above his head or at his feet there’s only so much he can do. Taylor will likely be forced to throw a ton to keep up with this Steelers offense, so expect a good amount of looks for Watkins again this week. His success will depend on how sharp Taylor is on Sunday. Both of these players make for risky starts in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
Chargers @ Panthers - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Antonio Gates (TE, SD)
After four straight games with at least nine targets, Gates has put up two dud games in a row. One week after getting zero targets from Philip Rivers, Gates caught all four of his targets for 37 yards against the Buccaneers. Good news is Hunter Henry isn’t doing anything to take playing time from Gates; he has three receptions for 34 yards combined over the past two weeks. Gates is still the TE to own and start between the two. This week they face a Panthers defense that has given up the most fantasy points to the TE position this season. They have given up a touchdown to a TE in three straight weeks. Gates has more than a good chance of getting one TD closer to the record.
Tyrell Williams (WR, SD)
Replacing a stud like Keenan Allen is a bit easier when you have someone like Tyrell Williams ready to step up. Even though Rivers loves spreading the ball around in his offense, Williams has been the most consistent member of the WR corps all season long. In his rookie season so far, he has amassed 837 yards on 53 receptions (15.8 average YPR) with six touchdowns. He has a TD in each of the past four games. Williams leads the team in targets since their Week 11 bye with 18 over two games. The Panthers defense has given up the sixth most fantasy points to the WR position, and was just dismantled by Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. As the WR1 in the offense, expect a huge game from Williams.
Matchups We Hate
Melvin Gordon (RB, SD)
A classic case of love the player, hate the matchup. This week Melvin Gordon faces a Panthers defense that has given up the 10th fewest fantasy points to the RB position, and outside of Thomas Rawls last week has been stellar against opposing RB since their bye week. After one of his lowest fantasy outputs of the season in Week 12, Gordon responded with yet another game with over 100 yards from scrimmage. Last week he ran 17 times for 84 yards and a TD, and caught four passes for 54 yards. Gordon has shown that he is capable of being a three-down back that can carry a full load without pass-catching back Danny Woodhead. Gordon should still be a strong play this week, especially in PPR formats. However, he is going to have to fight for everything he gets against this stingy defense.
Notable Players
Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)
After getting down in the count early last week, the Panthers were forced to abandon the run fairly early. Stewart ended the game against Seattle with only 11 rushing attempts for 50 yards. He did catch a pass for three yards, but is regularly removed from the game in passing situations; he only has five total receptions on the season. With this game expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the day, it is possible that a scenario like last week unfolds again and hurts Stewart’s fantasy impact. Game flow will have a huge impact on his fantasy performance, making him a big risk in the first weeks of the fantasy playoffs.
Ted Ginn (WR, CAR)
Though he was third on the team in targets last week, he was by far the most effective receiver. Ginn caught 5-of-6 targets last week for 80 yards and a TD; his third straight game with a score. Ginn doesn’t have the best hands and isn’t the smoothest route runner, but when he can use his speed to beat defenders Newton can hit him deep in stride. Lately, that connection has been clicking, while Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen have struggled to get things going. If you own Olsen you’re likely starting him, but Ginn should be started based on his recent performances as well.
Bengals @ Browns - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN)
Last week, Eifert received his lowest target total since his first game back from injury. He received only two targets against the Eagles, but made them count catching them both for 25 yards, including a 13-yard TD. Philadelphia did an excellent job taking Eifert away from the offense, but the Bengals still scored 32 points in the win. This week he faces a much easier Browns team that has given up the third most fantasy points to the TE position this season. He will surely improve on last week’s lackluster totals, and will make a much bigger impact than the first time he faced this Browns team (first game back from injury, played on only 25% of snaps). Expect TE1 numbers from Eifert this week in a must-win game for Cincinnati.
Matchups We Hate
Terrelle Pryor (WR, CLE)
Terrelle Pryor has exceeded all expectations in his first professional season as a WR. He is on pace to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark with over 80 receptions, something that would have sounded absolutely crazy had you suggested it before the season. However, this week he has some things stacked up against him. The Bengals defense has been excellent against opposing WR, limiting them to the fifth fewest fantasy points this season. Also, Robert Griffin III will be making his return to the field for the Browns. Earlier in the season in his one start, RGIII completed only 46% of his passes for 190 yards with an INT. It would be difficult to trust anyone on Cleveland this week.
Notable Players
Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN)
Over the past two weeks without Giovani Bernard in the picture, Hill has been the primary back in the Bengals backfield. His involvement in the passing game has increased as expected, but he has only rushed for 1.5 YPC. His struggles could be brought to an end this week against Cleveland, who have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing RB this season. However, Hill has developed some discouraging home/road splits this season. At home, he averages 4.8 YPC compared to 2.7 on the road. He had the same issue last season, though not to this extent (4.1 to 3.2). Something is going to have to give in this game, and I would put my faith in Hill over the Browns being able to stop him.
Brandon LaFell (WR, CIN)
Over the past two weeks without A.J. Green, Brandon LaFell has led the team in targets with 16, one more than Tyler Boyd. After a disappointing Week 12, LaFell came back strong last week catching 5-of-7 targets for 95 yards and a TD. The Eagles did an effective job shutting down Tyler Eifert, leaving LaFell as the big target for Andy Dalton to throw to. Boyd will likely catch more passes, but on shorter routes, making him the better PPR play. LaFell is a boom-or-bust flex option in standard leagues against a Cleveland defense who have given up the seventh most fantasy points to the WR position this season.
Duke Johnson (RB, CLE)
Johnson has been the most effective RB for the Browns of late, with the play of Isaiah Crowell falling off mainly due to injuries to some key offensive lineman. Johnson's involvement in the passing game has been consistent all season long, ranking fifth among all RB in targets. Before the bye week he had three straight weeks with three receptions, making him a playable option only in PPR leagues. RGIII starting puts a huge question mark on this offense. Who knows how rusty he will look having not started since Week 1. Johnson is the better play of the two Cleveland backs, but neither make for a safe start.
Bears @ Lions - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Golden Tate (WR, DET)
Tate is coming off his best game since Week 6. Against the Saints, Tate caught 8-of-10 targets for 145 yards and a TD. His best play of the day was his 66-yard TD catch, when he was left wide open on a deep route down the right side of the field. Over the past two weeks, Tate has amassed 17 targets as Matthew Stafford’s favorite target. The Bears have been a bit better lately, but have given up the 12th most fantasy points to opposing WR this season, and have had a bevy of injuries to their defense over the past few weeks. Tate should be able to take advantage of a depleted defense with his high volume of targets.
Matchups We Hate
Theo Riddick (RB, DET)
Riddick was phased out of the Lions offensive plan a bit last week, making way for Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington to see increased touches. The culprit may be some lingering injuries; he has dealt with ankle and wrist issues to begin practice this week. He is expected to play, but the injuries may continue to hamper him. The Bears have been surprisingly good against opposing RB this season, limiting them to the fifth fewest fantasy points this season. They have allowed the second fewest receiving yards to opposing RB as well, which is the main source of Riddick’s value.
Notable Players
Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)
Howard has been successful over the past two weeks with Matt Barkley at the helm, averaging 4.0 YPC with a huge three TD game last week. He also caught three passes for 43 yards. Last time he played the Lions he ran for 111 yards on 23 carries. Detroit has been better at limiting opposing RB of late; no RB since their Week 10 bye has rushed for 40 yards or more. They have held opposing RB to the seventh fewest fantasy points overall. Howard should still be a good play this week given his number of touches, but keep expectations in check.
Joshua Bellamy (WR, CHI)
We weren’t too sure how things were going to shake out in this offense once it was announced Barkley would be the starter for the rest of the season, but one thing for sure is it looks like Josh Bellamy will have a bigger role. Over the past two weeks he has seen a team-leading 15 targets, catching eight of them for 134 yards. He was even given a rushing attempt, which he turned into a 12-yard gain. The leading receiver of the Bears offense may not be saying much, but in a game where Barkley will likely need to throw to keep up, a good day could be in store for Bellamy.
Anquan Boldin (WR, DET)
After Tate, Boldin has been the receiver to own in the offense over Marvin Jones. Since the bye week, Boldin has received a team-leading 24 targets. He has caught 17 of those passes for 146 yards and a TD. He isn’t going to wow anyone with a big game; his 8.6 YPR is among the worst in the league. However, he is normally good for a handful of catches for 30-to-40 yards and a good chance for a TD. If you need a desperation play in the playoffs, Boldin is a decent option with some upside.
Texans @ Colts - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU)
The Brock Osweiler-to-DeAndre Hopkins connection hasn’t developed like many had hoped this season. Osweiler’s inaccuracy has hurt Hopkins the same way Blake Bortles has hurt Allen Robinson this season. At least for Hopkins, he has received a consistently high number of targets all season long with a floor of around five receptions for 40 yards. Last week he was able to reach the end zone for the first time since Week 5. The Colts have not been able to cover WR well since their bye week; Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe both had big days against them for Tennessee, and Antonio Brown torched them for three scores. Even Robby Anderson for the Jets had 61 yards and a TD. The opportunity will be there for Hopkins this week. It is only a matter of whether or not Osweiler can get him the ball.
Donte Moncrief (WR, IND)
Since his return to the team, Moncrief has been a huge red zone asset for Andrew Luck. Even though he is only averaging four receptions for 41 yards per game, he has kept his fantasy value high with a touchdown scored in five straight games. Houston has had a solid pass defense all season, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WR. However, since their Week 9 bye they have allowed 100-yard games to Jordy Nelson, Dontrelle Inman, and Allen Robinson. All three of those receivers were able to add a TD to their totals also. Even against a tough defense, Moncrief is a great bet to reach pay dirt once again.
Matchups We Hate
Lamar Miller (RB, HOU)
Lamar Miller is coming off his worst game of the season against Green Bay last week, a disappointing 14 rush for 22 yards performance. He suffered a rib injury which forced him to miss a few drives, but he returned to the game late in the first quarter. Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes out-gained Miller on less than half the touches, but Miller’s job is completely safe. If he is healthy enough he will handle a full workload against the Colts, who have improved against the run of late. They limited Matt Forte to only 25 yards rushing last week, and limited DeMarco Murray to a 3.3 YPC in Week 11. If Miller is forced to cede carries to Blue and Grimes due to his injury, it will be tough for him to have a productive day.
Notable Players
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
As mentioned above, the Texans are one of the best teams in the league at limiting opposing WR. However, Hilton is one of the most difficult receivers to defend due to his quickness and speed. He is capable of taking the top off a defense, but can also make catches underneath and use his athleticism to make plays after the catch. Last week he caught nine passes for 146 yards, doing the majority of his damage on shorter catches. In his career against Houston (including this year’s game) he averages five receptions for 92 yards, with a TD in six of nine career games.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU)
Fiedorowicz has been one of the few players Osweiler can connect with on a weekly basis. Since Week 5, he has averaged five receptions on seven targets for 52 yards per game. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 8, but if you’re struggling at TE he can be a great plug-and-play option. The Colts have given up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing TE this season, and Fiedorowicz already carved up this defense earlier in the campaign with six receptions for 85 yards and a TD. Expect Fiedorowicz to be heavily involved once again this week, with a chance at TE1 fantasy numbers.
Vikings @ Jaguars - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Matt Asiata (RB, MIN)
Nether Vikings RB makes for a good start in your average fantasy league, but in a deeper format Asiata may be a viable play this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has been a middle of the road run defense this season, but have been better in some areas than others. Asiata is the goal line/short yardage back for the Vikings, and the Jaguars have given up 10 TD to opposing RB this season (eighth most in the league). McKinnon may get more work in the passing game, but the Jags have given up the fourth fewest reception yards to opposing RB. If you are forced to play one of these two backs this week, I would roll with Asiata over McKinnon for the TD potential. McKinnon may out-touch Asiata by a few touches per game, but Asiata gets the more valuable touches each week.
Matchups We Hate
Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN)
When healthy, Stefon Diggs has been phenomenal for the Vikings this season. He has taken a nice step forward in his development, and ranks fourth in the league in 75 receptions in only 10 games played. When he is on the field he is far and away the most threatening player on the offense. This week will not be easy for him though; the Jaguars have given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing WR, limiting Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins, and Golden Tate to poor fantasy days. Diggs will need to catch a ton of passes again this week to turn in a productive week.
Allen Robinson (WR, JAX)
Robinson has been a mediocre fantasy asset at best this season, with a few good games in between a sea of disappointment for the young WR. After last week’s disappointing game against the Broncos (three receptions for 31 yards), Robinson and Blake Bortles had a sit down meeting to try and recapture some of the magic from their 2015 season. At this point, I wouldn’t trust Robinson at all. After a small stretch of games in the middle of the season where he did well, he has turned in three straight games of three or less receptions, and has not eclipsed 32 receiving yards. Against a Vikings secondary among the best in the league, Robinson is an easy bench decision.
Notable Players
Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)
Rudolph has mainly been a TD-dependent player over his career, but lately has been more involved in the offense than that. After his one catch for a one-yard TD day in Week 9, he has at least five receptions for 45 yards in three of his past four games. He has only scored one TD over that span, but he can still be useful if he keeps catching five or six passes per game. The Jaguars have given up the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing TE this season, but haven’t faced many TE as involved in their offenses as Rudolph. Eric Ebron is the most recent example, and he caught three passes for 70 yards in Week 11.
Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)
Ivory was well on his way to a great game against the Bills two weeks ago, with 45 yards on nine rushes and a TD early in the game. He exited early due to a hamstring issue, and was unable to play last week. Heading into this week he will be a game-time decision, but the Jags could desperately use him back. T.J. Yeldon and Denard Robinson have been abysmal in his absence, getting nothing going against Buffalo and averaging 3.5 YPC last week against Denver. Even upon his return, he will still split carries with Yeldon while Robinson goes back to a bench role. Ivory is the brightest crayon in the box in this backfield, but when we’re talking about three shades of grey it makes little difference. None of these backs make for anything but a desperation play; no one you should use in the playoffs.
Broncos @ Titans - Sunday 12/11 @1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)
The late season bye week was perfectly timed for DeMarco Murray, who used the bye to help heal his nagging toe injury. The injury may have been starting to take a toll on him; the week before the bye against Chicago he ran for 43 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC). He also caught five passes for 41 yards, but the YPC was his lowest of the season. Now healthier, he will look to take it to the Broncos defense that has given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing RB this season. The second leading rusher in the league should have no issues finding open space. Derrick Henry may take 5-to-10 carries, but this backfield is still dominated by Murray. Fire him up as a sure-fire RB1.
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN)
The Broncos offense survived last week without Trevor Siemian, who missed the game with a foot injury. Paxton Lynch played, completing 50% of his passes for only 104 yards. Thomas was his favorite target, catching 6-of-10 targets for 61 yards. With Siemian back under center, the offense should get a small boost. Over the team’s past five games, Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have had the same number of targets (49), but Thomas has been the more consistent player of the two. He has as many as 87 yards and as little as 56, compared to 162 and 28 for Sanders. If you’re looking for a consistent play with good TD upside, roll with Thomas. However, both receivers should be a good play against a Titans secondary that has given up the third most fantasy points to opposing WR this season.
Matchups We Hate
Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN)
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the Broncos secondary who have been elite all season long against opposing WR. They have given up the least amount of receptions, yards, and touchdowns to receivers this season. Matthews has emerged as Marcus Mariota’s favorite target behind Delanie Walker, with five touchdowns over the past five weeks. Against a defense that has shut down some of the most elite WR in the league, Matthews is going to have plenty of troubles.
Notable Players
Delanie Walker (TE, TEN)
Walker has been one of the top TE options all season long in fantasy. He ranks fourth in receiving yards and is tied for first in touchdowns among all TE. Denver has been stingy against TE also, allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to the position. However, Travis Kelce was able to beat the defense two weeks ago for 101 yards on eight catches. As the Mariota’s favorite target he will have a higher than normal floor, but with a limited ceiling against this elite defense.
Devontae Booker (RB, DEN)
Kapri Bibbs was about to overtake Devontae Booker last week before he left the game with an injury, and was since put on the IR. In response, the team signed Justin Forsett who head coach Gary Kubiak said is “a 3-down player” and went on to say “he can help us really quick.” This doesn’t bode well for Booker, who is expected to at least split carries with the aging back. This is likely the final straw for those Booker owners who thought they had a golden ticket once C.J. Anderson went down. Booker has shown little promise as a runner with vision, and will lose more carries this week because of it.
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