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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the Conference Championship games on Sunday, January 28, 2024. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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Underdog NFL DFS Prop Picks - Sunday Slate
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Isiah Pacheco, 14.5 Rushing Attempts (HIGHER)
The sweet spot for Kansas City on Sunday versus the Baltimore Ravens may just be the run game. The Ravens rank 20th in rushing yards allowed per game and 25th in yards per carry. Isiah Pacheco comes into the Conference Championship game hitting the over for rushing attempts in the first two games of the playoffs. He carried 24 times versus the Miami Dolphins and 15 times versus Buffalo last week. He's projected for another 15.93 rushing attempts Sunday versus Baltimore.
If Kansas City wants to control the tempo of the game, they will be using Pacheco to help kill any time on the clock and extend the drives. He's averaging 4.56 yards per carry on the season and 4.77 yards in the playoffs. On top of everything, he'll be used to open up the passing lanes for Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while keeping Baltimore's defense on their toes.
Nelson Agholor, 15.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Nelson Agholor has been producing for the Baltimore Ravens this season at a consistent rate but the totals are never sky high. However, he gets the job done. Agholor pops up in the Proptimizer for Sunday as the fifth-highest odds to hit the oven in this matchup. He sits at a -123 (55.16%) implied total to go over while projected for two receptions, near 23 receiving yards. These are two defenses that will be challenging for receivers to do work.
In their Divisional Round playoff game versus Houston last week, Nelson Agholor was second in target share out of the wide receivers. He held a target share of 19% and held a 22% target per route ran share. While he's not putting up huge numbers, he has been able to help make an impact for this Ravens offense, giving Lamar Jackson one more weapon to work with.
Brandon Aiyuk, 5 receptions (HIGHER)
The San Francisco 49ers pulled out a victory last week versus the Green Bay Packers in a fight to the end with horrible rain conditions. Brandon Aiyuk was a victim of it and that is not expected to happen again this Sunday versus Detroit. He held a 17% target share, second to George Kittle who led the 49ers passing offense. For the season, Aiyuk held a 22% target share, leading the 49ers receiving core. Now with a perfect passing game matchup, Brandon Aiyuk should get back to dominating.
The Lions come in ranked 27 in net passing yards per game while ranked 30th in yards per passing attempt. They also rank 30th against receivers which can make any matchup perfect for the 49ers offense. Aiyuk's projection currently sits at 5.3 receptions with 7.4 targets for 88.4 receiving yards. That projection could increase if Deebo Samuel continues to be limited and even ruled out for Sunday's game.
Jahmyr Gibbs, 24.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Jahmyr Gibbs is still second-in-line to David Montgomery but continues to shine like he's the lead running back. In the two playoff games, Gibbs has dominated in the receiving role out of the backfield. He recorded four receptions off of four targets for 43 receiving yards versus the Los Angeles Rams in the Wildcard round. In the divisional round, he once again recorded four receptions off of four targets but for 40 receiving yards.
Facing a tough San Francisco 49ers defense, Jahmyr Gibbs is projected to go over his total once again. He's projected for 3.9 receptions and 5.1 targets for 28.8 receiving yards. The 49ers do rank fifth in yards per attempt allowed but their missed tackle rate is what hurts them as they rank 29th. If you aren't able to tackle Gibbs, he's going to put up a huge production versus them on Sunday.
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