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Austin Swaim's UFC DFS lineups picks for UFC 332 - Silva vs. Wang. Top MMA fighter picks this week include Jacobe Smith, Anthony Wint, Marcus McGhee, Imanol Rodriguez, Mick Parkin, and King Green.
Every week, DraftKings Daily Fantasy offers MMA contests featuring the full UFC fight card. The DFS slate for UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang locks Saturday at 5 p.m. EST on Paramount+.
This weekend's main event is a flyweight title fight on the women's side as Brazilian kickboxer Natalia Silva battles China's Wang Cong, a pressure specialist, in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Here is a full breakdown of my favorite picks on the card in each pricing tier.
UFC 332 DraftKings DFS Studs to Target
Jacobe Smith ($9,800)
This card has eight (!) favorites of -265 or greater at DraftKings Sportsbook, and that's the type of card where a salary like Jacobe Smith's gets forgotten.
"Cobe", though, has proven to be the type of fantasy monster that can score a ton -- even deeper into fights. He's landed 6.89 significant strikes per minute and 7.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, and -- yes -- has finished all three of his UFC foes inside 10 minutes.
The undefeated welterweight will meet his match at some point, but on short notice, I don't think it's Bruce Whitehead, an 8-2 regional pro. "The Goose" has lost twice inside the distance just in the last 24 months.
In cash games, I'm finding a way. Even with all the heavy favorites, there are only two wrestlers who can post a big number regardless of how long it takes. Most of these others need a knockout.
Anthony Wint ($9,300)
Smith is one of the favorites who will score with wrestling, and Anthony Wint is the other. Wint attempts 9.00 takedowns per 15 minutes.
The former New York Jets linebacker is already 1-0 in UFC despite appearing on the Contender Series in August, and he's a -590 favorite to make it 2-0 against newcomer Lucas Armand.
Armand trains with UFC big bodies like Joaquin Buckley and Jamahal Hill, but Wint's physical dominance has been too much for each of his prior opponents, and Armand doesn't have much footage of himself on his back. He's amassed five striking KOs for 2 Piece Promotions, a small, regional MMA organization in Michigan.
Wint's striking defense (83%) is mighty in a small sample, and his compact frame helps keep his chin from being exposed. I think he pushes a tremendous pace with his wrestling and eventually breaks the rookie for a win under 15 minutes.
Eric Nolan ($9,000)
Every dollar matters this weekend, so we really have to rank out Eric Nolan, Roberto Soldic ($9,200), and Ateba Gautier ($8,800).
Soldic is a total newcomer, and Gautier faces Roman Kopylov, who hasn't been KO'd in 12 UFC bouts. Nolan, actually, draws his easiest opponent in the octagon by a mile because Court McGee (11-13 UFC) is now 41 years old and has been dropped in two of his last five bouts.
"Night Time" has battled iffy takedown defense (44%) in two UFC starts, but if the old man wants to wrestle, I'll welcome it with open arms at elevation. That style is extremely taxing at his age, and McGee has only totaled three takedowns in his last six fights.
Nolan's boxing has flashed quality moments against durable prospects like Baisangur Susurkaev and Farman Hasanov, who are a combined 4-0 in UFC. This isn't just an initial fair fight for him; New Jersey's own is a worthy favorite.
UFC 332 DraftKings DFS Mid-Tier Picks
Imanol Rodriguez ($8,600)
Alden Coria is a talented prospect with a marquee win over a ranked fighter (Alessandro Costa), but he's got a huge problem in this matchup with Imanol Rodriguez.
Coria's 56% takedown D has proven to be awful. Stewart Nicoll (0-4 UFC) landed five takedowns in the best performance of his career against the boxer from Texas.
Imanol Rodriguez, a prodigy of wrestling ace Daniel Cormier at AKA, attempted 3.93 takedowns per 15 minutes in his debut, but he scored a knockout at striking range against Kevin Borjas and, mostly, didn't need it. I think he'll take that path of least resistance here.
At a 21.0% projected roster rate in RotoBaller's MMA optimizer, Coria is one of the most popular 'dog plays, so I like getting different with the favorite who can score via all three outcomes.
Marcus McGhee ($8,500)
I'll get on my soapbox forever that leaving a broken favorite like Marcus McGhee in the fighter pool is the wrong move, but as long as DraftKings does it, we'll need to pay attention here.
McGhee is a -520 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, which is win equity that should put him around $9,300. For many in cash games, that's an easy click.
I, actually, think there's some ambiguity in McGhee's scoring output that makes a fade justifiable. The fight is -150 to start Round 3, and he's attempted just 2.18 takedowns per 15 minutes with a really poor conversion rate (11%).
If this is a striking-based decision similar to the one "The Maniac" had in his last fight, many will be disappointed with the decision to roster him. But, I'd be remiss not to include such an obvious mismatch in salary and win equity.
Mick Parkin ($7,800)
Anything is on the table in Johnny Walker's heavyweight debut against "Slick" Mick Parkin. Matchmakers cooked here.
In many ways, Parkin's 0.33% knockdown rate (KD%) masks the durability flaw Walker continually showed as a light heavyweight. He's more of a sound boxer than a powerful puncher, posting a +0.57 striking success rate (SSR).
Walker's fight style will likely be very different in this new weight class. His tyrannical reach (82") in his old division is now just a three-inch advantage against Parkin. He doesn't really wrestle (0.71 takedown attempts per 15 minutes), either.
That eases concerns about Mick's iffy takedown defense (50%). In general, my model thinks this fight could be a dud for fantasy when it's projected to go the distance 57.0% of the time.
I'd rather spend down if that's the case, but the Englishman also can post a mammoth score if he can find the Brazilian's fleeting chin.
UFC 332 DraftKings Underdog Plays
Wang Cong ($7,500)
UFC brass is taking a huge risk with this main event. In addition to Natalia Silva and Wang Cong not carrying name value for most, they've combined for 10 decisions in 14 total appearances, and Silva has some total stinkers to watch mixed in there.
Nonetheless, a 25-minute fight favored to see the distance helps Cong's scoring floor. She has posted an excellent 6.82 significant strikes per minute entering this matchup.
Silva's general disposition to run, in addition to her elite striking defense (66%), has my model projecting Cong's median for significant strikes at just 64.45. It could be a frustrating accumulation as minutes tick by, but that's not bad volume in a vacuum for $7,500.
Of course, Cong could also steal the show with a shocking finish, and that's something my model projects more often for her (23.4%) than Silva (22.0%) through simulations.
King Green ($7,300)
I'm happy to lean into the chalk with King Green when I think he wins this bout.
That bold claim doesn't come from nowhere. Look at the mutual striking-only opponents of the Californian and Esteban Ribovics and tell me that would be crazy.
When Green fought Daniel Zellhuber, he had a +69 striking differential. Ribovics' advantage (+35) was lower. Nasrat Haqparast had just a -12 striking differential against the Argentinian, yet his deficit was 112 strikes against the artist formerly known as Bobby.
I've long maintained that occasional lapses in durability at the highest level -- like Mauricio Ruffy, Jalin Turner, and Islam Makhachev -- have kept folks from accepting Green is one of the best lightweight strikers ever.
In over 342 octagon minutes, he's got a +2.86 SSR and 62% striking defense. Stats typically flatten out over long UFC careers in samples over 100 minutes; Green has tripled that and maintained analytical excellence.
Ribovics' poor 0.43 KD% inspires hope, to me, that Green can survive deep into this fight, where his volume and hand speed would win it.
Andrey Pulyaev ($6,800)
Some of you might be shocked that I haven't even mentioned Damian Pinas' name in this preview.
"The Baba Yaga" is two-for-two on first-round knockouts in UFC with the power to threaten that "quick win bonus" in any matchup. I get it. But, I've got concerns.
In a microscopic sample, Pinas has tanked a card-worst 5.89 significant strikes per minute with poor striking defense (39%). What if that doesn't improve? Plus, you get to the total unknown of the Aruban's endurance and effectiveness beyond Round 1 at elevation.
Andrey Pulyaev survived all 15 minutes with Ateba Gautier and Christian Leroy Duncan. He's got great footwork, and the submission defense lapses he showed against Nursulton Ruziboev aren't a problem here.
If Pinas fades late into this fight, Pulyaev's 9.5% projected roster rate in DFS is second-lowest on the card. Even simply surviving to the end and denying Pinas a good fantasy night delivers access to Smith, Wint, and others at a punt-level salary.
